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SPY/QQQ at a level not seen since 2000In summary, the chart suggests that the SPY/QQQ ratio has been in a prolonged downtrend with intermittent periods of consolidation and minor rallies. The overall sentiment appears bearish, with the price below key moving averages and technical indicators reflecting continued downward pressure. However, the ratio is near a support level, and if it holds, there could be a potential for a short-term rebound. Considering that QQQ is heavily weighted towards tech stocks and SPY is a broader market index representing the S&P 500, a few additional implications can be drawn from the chart showing the SPY/QQQ ratio: Tech vs. Broader Market Performance: The downtrend in the SPY/QQQ ratio indicates that, over a long period, QQQ (tech stocks) has outperformed SPY (broader market). A declining ratio suggests that tech stocks have generally been a stronger investment compared to the broader market. This could be due to the tech sector's significant growth and its large impact on market trends, especially in areas like software, hardware, and communications. Economic and Market Cycles: The performance of tech stocks relative to the broader market can also reflect different economic and market cycles. Tech stocks often perform well during periods of economic growth and innovation but can be more volatile and susceptible to sharp corrections, as seen in the early 2000s and during other market downturns. Investor Sentiment and Risk Appetite: The relative performance can also signal changes in investor sentiment and risk appetite. When investors are confident and seek growth, they might favor tech stocks, driving up the QQQ. Conversely, in times of market uncertainty or economic downturns, investors might prefer the diversification and perceived safety of the broader market index like SPY. Sector Rotation: The chart could also indicate times of sector rotation, where money moves between sectors based on economic expectations, interest rates, and other macroeconomic factors. For example, if the ratio were to start increasing, it could suggest a shift in favor towards more diverse or defensive sectors included in SPY compared to tech. Market Valuations: The long-term performance trend might reflect the expanding valuations in the tech sector, which have been noted particularly in recent years. This might raise concerns about overvaluations in tech compared to more traditional sectors. Implications for Asset Allocation: For investors, the trend in the SPY/QQQ ratio can be critical for decisions about asset allocation. Depending on their outlook on tech stocks versus the broader market, investors might adjust their portfolios to capture potential growth or to hedge against possible downturns.
AMEX:SPY
by HumaTrading
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7/11 EOD FollowupWhat can I say about today? It was also an emotional response to the CPI data falling in line with expectations. How did this happen? The way I interpret this data, traders were literally gutted that the CPI number didn't come in hot. They wanted a hot number so the Fed may be pressured into making a move on rates. I guess traders don't understand that we need the US economy to continue being the 900-lb gorilla compared to global economies. In fact, I want the US economy to continue to dominate global economies for the next 5+ years to grow our GDP and real wages and create an environment more similar to the 1990s—2010s US economy. Far too many people simply don't understand how important it is for the US economy to continue to outperform global markets. So, as you watch this video, please don't lose perspective of what is really taking place right now. A. The US economy is strong. B. The CPI data came in AS EXPECTED. C. Nothing has really changed from yesterday to today. D. Gold and Silver are moving higher as FEAR elevates (and demand for physical metals increases). E. The US markets will start to fall back into line (Bullish) as earnings continue to report. I urge you to stay cautious related to these big data days and understand emotions take control for many traders on days like today. Logic is thrown out the window when traders try to chase these types of trends. Moves like this can be big winners - or massive losers. So, I always urge traders to PLAY SMART. Trade only 1/3 to 1/2 positions on big news days. The trick to being a great trader is to never act in a manner that could blow up your account in 3 hours. If you want to do that, go to a casino and bet on RED or BLACK. If you want to be a skilled trader, then learn to position your trades relative to your risk exposure and remember - tomorrow is another day full of opportunities. At the end of the day today, the SPY Cycle Pattern nailed the move today. I did not nail the move with my expectations. Remember, I'm not 100% accurate all the time. Still, I've called 14 of the last 15 days very accurately. Not bad - huh? And if you think that is easy to do - give it a try yourself.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY: Week of July 8Hey everyone, Messy, messy, messy. We continue to only ever go up. As of now, SPY broke out to the upside (with a caveat that I will get into in a second). We are above all thresholds, 3 month and 6 month, with the high prob 560 target right within reach. I don’t really have any doubts that we are snagging this 6 month target first (the 560), before we can even contemplate downside. And with the breakout, the move is still up. We may only get one more good day of upside and then chop for a bit, but its still upside after the chop concludes. And with us being almost at ATHs again in terms of actively open short positions, the bears assured SPY of continued upside. Most things made new ATHs, inclusive of META. NVDA struggling, but this seasonally is a really bad month for NVDA, so I won’t really long it as a substitute for other things. The caveat I wanted to quickly mention is the complete absence of volume that has been driving these “breakout” moves. Plotting the weekly buy vs sell volume, this is what we have: For the past month, we have had like below average volume. And as of this week, we see sellers (orange) crossing above the 14 period SMA of selling volume and buyers falling below. Now, absent really conclusive volume, the bias continues to be up. But the question is why is there so little volume? Perhaps big money is stepping away from things. Perhaps whales are just watching their profits accumulate before the exit. Who knows, but its something to keep note of. As long as the volume remains low, then its just a continued chop up with the occasional “pseudo breakout” when all of the low volume traders are all bulls. I do think we are approaching a temporary top, however this will be post the high probs at 560 (in my opinion). In general, my expectations are we continue up, snag the 560s, maybe up to 570s, we see a pseudo correction back down to that 537 high prob target, and then we continue up into EOY. I’ve said it in another post, but just to remind you, my overall expectation / target price on SPY for the year is around 601, with my guestimate of a closing range in the high 550s – 570s, based on historical ATRs and the 6 month TP levels on SPY. Anyway, the levels are in the chart above. Red zones are the range caps. Last week, SPY got rejected at the range cap EOD on Friday, so pay close attention to those. Otherwise, it should be smooth sailing for bulls. I was long all week last week and continue to be long via UPRO (which, if you read my recent post, I should have went SPYU … ah well). Will begin the exiting process at 560. Also, ARIMA levels are in the chart as well. Safe trades everyone!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Steversteves
11
SPY Has Finally Now Neared Its Final Target Of 570!Traders, It feels as though I have been discussing a SPY top at around 570 for years now and I can see from the history of my posts that this is actually true. I first started with the premise that the U.S. stock market would experience a blow-off top of sorts. Elliot-Wave theory and technicals seemed to support this idea. Though admittedly, I am nowhere near an expert in this area, I went with it, following the technical guidance of those who were. It was not too long thereafter I spotted something on the charts that I was very familiar with. This pattern supported and confirmed the idea that stocks would blow-off. What I spotted was a longer-term (2 year) inverse head and shoulders pattern. This inverse h&s played out and gave me my target of 570. 2 years later, we are finally almost there. Targets are not meant to be absolutely precise. Close enough is both good enough in hand grenades, horseshoes, and in calling market tops/bottoms. Therefore, not wanting to press my luck, I have decided to finally start taking some profit and moving to cash. Though, my target definitely could be exceeded, it is also possible that it may not be reached. I don't think the latter will be the case but I have been wrong before and could be wrong again. If I had to guess rn, I'd say this blow-off top could extend to a time frame just before election shenanigans begin. We are already seeing some of the nonsense here in the U.S. and thus, I know time is running thin. Before all hell breaks loose, SPY could touch 650. And then? Anyone's guess. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7/10 - EOD Followup AnalysisWell, what a crazy day. Did you guys see that momentum rally carry into today's Gap Up/High pattern? Boy, sure would have hated trying to short this market trend and watching my account collapse. This video shows you why I believe the momentum behind this move may carry into and through the big data hitting tomorrow. We may see a very strong rally tomorrow after the data hits that could push the SPY price up into the $565~568+ level. For those of you capable of executing quick shorts, I think you may have an early morning opportunity with price volatility tomorrow - but I would be cautious of getting too aggressive in shorting until closer to the 15th (Monday). Thank you for all your great comments and boosts. Remember, I do this to help traders become better skilled at executing their own trades. Now, we've still got 10+ more days of my predictions to work through. So, we get to see if my research/analysis is worth anything compared to the others out there. I firmly believe most of the people pushing out research are simply pushing out click-bait. Me, I'm a little different.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
8
07/10 SPY Levels and ATR rangesATR for the SPY siting at 4.27 - WE have 10am and 1030am reports on Crude and Gas from the FOMC, Powell still testifying about the economy in front of the senate. E2nd quarter earnings are on the way this is going to a be busy month. Looking for good reports to come out of tomorrow, so they might be buying up the Momentumn into theser reports tomorrow. But they might also be selling to bring it lower to bring it back up again. If we get a pullback, I would expect it into the 555.50area for Yesterdays low range, if we break that, then I will follow the ATR lines and look for Volume and price action walong with the EMAs to help gauge a potential direction. We are now dancing premarket dance around yesterdays high level of 557 (52 week high also). if we bust through that area after open, following my scalp lines and levels up to 558.86, potentially 559. If we get there, I believe the fight for 560 in underway. God bless and good luck everyone.
AMEX:SPY
by TuskenDayTrade
SPQ/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7/10 - Gap Up/Higher PatternToday's Gap Up/Higher pattern in Trend mode may provide a strong price rally attempt after yesterday's somewhat non-existent Momentum Rally pattern. I believe the lack of price movement yesterday resulted from markets waiting for Powell's comments and not wanting to get too far ahead of themselves. Today, I believe the markets will resume trending to support the continued bullish price move and possibly make up for some of the missing price trends from yesterday. We'll see - one way or another. We need to see a solid upward opening price gap today - leading to a moderate melt-upward type of trend. Today's price trend may be explosive - even though we have limited data/news. Remember, if you like my research, content, and info, share, boost, like, and visit my website to learn more. Get some.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade July 9 - End Of Day FollowupToday's Momentum Rally never really showed up. Remember, I've been warning you these SPY cycle patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. They've done a fantastic job of calling the markets correctly over the past 17+ days. But, today, the Momentum Rally never really materialized. As you'll see in this video, I believe the momentum for a bullish price move was muted today because of the Fed comments and lack of data. In short, the Fed comments took the momentum away, and price struggled to find any real trend. But the momentum for a bullish price move is still there. It is inherently biased toward price. So, I believe we could see a very big (explosive) move to the upside over the next 4+ trading days. Stay patient. This is a great example of learning to wait for the best setups. If my analysis is correct, this current setup could be a very big winner. The bullish price bias may explode to the upside over the next four to five days. Get some.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
9
SPY... Wolfe Wave Calling ??Calling a meaningful top in this equity market for most, has for the most part, been an unrewarding excercise. Better to read the tea leaves ... go with the new trend/correction and try to profit from it. I believe there is a Bearish Wolfe Wave formation in process for the SPY. On my chart I have marked an ideal top in the 545-547 area. BUT I also need momentum to roll over. As a confirmation, a break of 540 should be in place .... My target is 532. Don't chase this !! .. if it happens it happens. Not investment advice. Do your own due diligence S.
AMEX:SPY
by Steve666
1