S&P 500 OutlookS&P closed below the 9-EMA, showing there is weakness going into next week. Starting to build my watchlist when we get the bounce. If it closes back above the 9-EMA, then I'll start to look for entries.
SPY trade ideas
$SPY Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17
Stock Near All-Time High
Approaching ATH at 613.23 — key pivot zone
Break and hold above: Look for calls targeting momentum continuation (e.g., 620, 630 psychological levels)
Rejection off ATH: Look for puts targeting a retracement toward 599, then 568
Retracement and Support Zones
599: Micro support on smaller timeframes (15m/1h). Watch for intraday bounce or breakdown.
568: Key downside target if rejection at ATH confirms and 599 fails. Consider swing puts toward this level.
Also monitor the 585–590 range for potential consolidation or minor support.
Game Plan Triggers
Bullish confirmation:
Clean break and hold above 613.23 with strong volume
Market-wide risk-on tone (SPY, QQQ green)
Bearish setup:
Strong rejection at or below ATH
Market-wide pullback or macro weakness (especially in tech or consumer sectors)
Catalysts
June 17 (Monday): Retail Sales Report — gauge of consumer strength
June 18 (Tuesday): Unemployment Claims — snapshot of labor market health
Strong data may fuel market optimism
Weak data could tilt market bearish
Additional Notes
Watch for volume divergence near ATH — breakout with low volume can trap longs
Use pre-market action to frame bias: gap up with follow-through = strength; gap up followed by fade = weakness
Keep an eye on VIX and bond yields for macro pressure indicators
SPY Technical Analysis - Jun 16⏱️ 1‑Hour Chart Overview
Key Zones
* Support: $597–$601 — built on put-gamma support
* Resistance: $605–$607 — topped by call-gamma walls
Bias: Cautiously bullish — awaiting confirmation above $600–601
Trade Idea:
* Structure: Bull call spread (600/605 strikes)
* Targets:
* T1: $605 (initial gamma cap)
* T2: $607 (upper gamma wall)
* Invalidation: Break decisively below $595
Management:
* Entry: Buy near $600–601 with bullish candle and supportive volume
* Scaling: Start small and layer in if price holds
* Exit:
* Take partial profits at $605
* Trail to $607
* Exit if SPY drops below $595
Why It Works: Gamma flows from option expiries tend to provide momentum near the spread’s strikes, and the debit structure defines both risk and reward.
⏳ 15‑Minute Chart (Intraday Entry)
Setup Window: Zooming in for precise entry within 1‑hour framework
What to Observe
1. Pullback to $600–601
* Look for a bullish reversal candle (hammer, engulfing) on 15‑m
* Ideally, with increasing volume
2. Confirmation Signal
* Break above the high of that reversal candle
* Volume support confirms genuine demand
3. Momentum Alignment
* Pair with an intraday oscillator (e.g., Muscle mover, RSI rising)
* Candles should show higher lows or extended wick above support
15‑Minute Trade Rules
* Entry: Market or limit buy on a 15‑m candle closing above reversal high (~$601)
* Stop: Under that candle’s low (e.g., ~$599.50)
* Profit Scaling:
* Partial de‑risk at ~$605
* Full exit planned at ~$607
🚦 Multi‑Timeframe Strategy Summary
1‑Hour: Macro bias and strike framework
15‑Min: Precision entry zone & risk control
Spread Trade: Leverages GEX structure for momentum capture
Risk Defined: Debit known, stops clear
Upside Potential: Push toward gamma-neutralizing walls
Flow Edge: Option hedging dynamics predominantly active around spread levels
🧠 Watchlist
* Price behavior near $600–601 on 15‑m
* Volume surge with bullish candle
* Macro drivers: Fed noise, SPX futures action, sector rotation
* Shifts in implied volatility that may affect spread pricing
Trade with discipline — defined risk, entry precision, steady management.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. All trading involves risk; do your own due diligence.
$SPY – Bearish Momentum Meets Spiral Timing🌀 AMEX:SPY – Spiral Timing, Macro Tension, and Bearish Momentum Brewing
Not financial advice. Short-term sentiment shifted bearish.
I’ve been tracking AMEX:SPY using both Fibonacci retracements and Fib spirals across the daily and weekly timeframes, and we’re now at a critical inflection zone. My sentiment has shifted more cautiously bearish in the short term, while acknowledging upside remains intact on the longer timeframes.
🔍 Macro Backdrop: Pressure Building
CPI Data (May) came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but still below forecast — showing inflation is sticky but not accelerating.
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared again over the weekend, adding risk-off pressure to already fragile sentiment.
Market volatility remains high, with trillions of dollars swinging across a narrow window — validating shorter Fib cycles and accelerated price exhaustion.
🧭 Daily Chart Analysis: December 2024 High → April 2025 Low
I used a bearish Fib retracement from the December 2024 highs to the April 2025 lows.
SPY has now retraced nearly 100% of that drop, currently hovering between the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement levels — which often act as exhaustion zones in corrective rallies.
The Fib spiral from the April low shows we’ve lost the initial vertical trendline that marked the recovery leg — a shift in momentum tone.
MACD has remained flat for 16 sessions, with a bearish divergence confirmed on Friday (6/13/25).
Momentum, which briefly turned positive on Thursday, flipped sharply back negative by week’s end.
📆 Weekly Chart Structure: March 2020 → Feb 2025
The weekly spiral, drawn from the March 2020 low to the February 2025 high, reflects a similar pattern:
→ Price is moving beyond the arc and approaching the vertical time marker, a zone where reversals or expansions often occur.
Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term action suggests compression ahead of a possible pullback.
🔥 Spiral Interpretation Reminder:
The Fib spiral doesn’t predict direction — it identifies time-based pressure points.
When price crosses the arc or vertical band, volatility often follows.
🎯 Key Trade Levels:
Breakdown Watch:
→ Close below $595, then $587 could trigger downside toward $560 (0.618) and $545 (0.5) levels from the retracement
Breakout Watch:
→ A confirmed breakout above $609 (full retrace from the Fib) would invalidate the short-term bear thesis and resume bullish continuation
🤔 Positioning Outlook:
I’m tactically bearish here. The technicals show:
Momentum divergence
Fib exhaustion
Spiral confluence
Macro pressure mounting
I don’t think the long-term trend is broken — but we’re entering a time window for volatility, and that often brings opportunity on both sides. Short setups may offer better risk/reward right now if we see confirmation.
Would love to hear your bias here — bear trap brewing or topping process?
$spyyieahh
Retest of mid line parallel.
Let's see how thos one works out, by 28 July we should see that touch of mid line and then boom or bust ?
SPY: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The analysis of the SPY chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to go up due to the rising pressure from the buyers.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Bearish Trend Starting SP500 SP:SPX AMEX:SPY Cannot Across 605 with MACD crossdown & RSI top lower
Last Support 593 If Breakthrough That Signal Confirm Complete Down Trend
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline.
If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone.
SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to:
-USA domestic conflict
-International military conflicts
-Technical chart bearish divergence
-USA federal reserve interest rate news
-Government and corporate news
Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580.
Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615.
The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
Update into the closeAnd I cover other charts as well. I expect lower on SPX next weel. Higher on Gold and OIL. Likely higher on Nat Gas, lower on BTC
Spy Prediction Potential breakout of bull flag if it bounces back after retest of 200 SMA. Could see an attempt for new ath.
Spy needs to reach 602.23 and hold that floor before the breakout. Watch for volume spike and close above 603. Watch for confirmation on the breakout.
Potential entries based on risk - 603.61 & 602.95
If volume or momentum declines, we could see a potential breakdown back towards 598.
Watch out for fakeouts.
The Turn?spx should continue down, I also cover other markets. OIl long term looks very bullish. I'm sick so short video.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-13 : Harami-Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets may stall into a sideways price range.
After the news of Israel targeting Iran in a preemptive strike late yesterday afternoon, the markets moved dramatically lower while Gold & Silver moved higher on the news.
I, personally, see this market trend as a shift in thinking ahead of a long Father's Day weekend.
I see traders trying to position their accounts/trades for uncertainty.
I believe we could see a bit of a shift today - particularly in Metals and the QQQ/NASDAQ/BTCUSD.
Overall, I strongly suggest traders prepare for extreme volatility this weekend as any further news of a counter-strike or further military action in the Middle East could roil the markets.
Happy Friday the 13th - everyone.
Going to be an interesting day to say the least.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Jeremy Chew SPY Notes 6/12/2025🧠 SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) — Technical Summary
Chart Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Latest Close: ~$603.75
After-Hours Price: ~$595 (notable drop of ~1.45%)
🟩 Recent Price Action:
Strong rally off March/April lows (~458) has pushed SPY through major Fibonacci levels.
Sharp uptrend support (green line) has held since bottom, but is now being tested.
Today’s after-hours drop to $595 places price back below the 78.6% Fib retracement level (~587) — a potential warning sign of a reversal or short-term weakness.
🔍 Fibonacci Levels (from ~644 to ~458 swing):
Level Price Status
23.6% ~518.2 Support (cleared)
38.2% ~536.4 Support
50.0% ~551.4 Support
61.8% ~566.1 Support
78.6% ~587.2 Currently being tested
100% ~644 Major resistance
🔺 Support Levels (Key Areas to Watch):
~587.2: 78.6% Fib + Bollinger Band middle (critical support now at risk).
~566–568: Fib 61.8% + horizontal consolidation support.
~551: Fib 50%, secondary support if breakdown continues.
Green uptrend line: Dynamic support — near convergence zone with ~587.
🔻 Resistance Levels:
~603–606: Immediate resistance (price rejected here intraday).
~615–620: Horizontal price shelf from Feb highs.
~644: Major swing high from earlier in 2025.
📈 Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Price was hugging the upper band earlier today — sign of bullish momentum.
After-hours dip to $595 pushes price toward the 20-day SMA (~593) — possible mean reversion or early correction forming.
📉 Volume & Momentum:
Volume during the rally has been moderate to low, suggesting limited conviction.
No major volume spike despite the recent breakout attempt.
If selling volume increases tomorrow, it may confirm a short-term bearish reversal.
⚠️ Interpretation:
The after-hours dip to $595 is a yellow flag. It:
Falls below the breakout level of ~603.
Threatens the 78.6% Fib (which is a typical exhaustion zone in retracements).
May break below the sharp uptrend support line, triggering profit-taking.
Short-term bias: Shifting from bullish to neutral/bearish unless it reclaims 603 quickly on volume.
🧭 Next Key Watchpoints:
Bulls want to see:
A bounce from ~593–587 zone.
A reclaim of 603 with strong volume.
Bears want to see:
Breakdown below 587 with follow-through.
Confirmation below trendline and push toward 566.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚨 Israel Strikes Iran — U.S. Markets Sell Off
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets. U.S. stock futures slid over 1%, driven by a drop in equities and a surge in safe-haven assets
🛢️ Oil Prices Surge 7–8% on Supply Fears
Brent crude jumped over 7%, reaching ~$74.65/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 8%—the strongest move since early May. The sudden energy-price spike reflects heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East
💱 Dollar & Safe Havens Climb
True to form, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and Treasuries rallied as investors moved to the safety of low-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 13
(No scheduled U.S. economic data)
Data flow will take a backseat as markets digest geopolitical developments and await the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #geopolitics #oil #safety #charting #technicalanalysis
SP500: Recursive Historic PatternAs a part of my research on fractal phenomena, I'm collecting recursive patterns directly to better understand the emerging structural landscape.
Documenting systemic behavior
Sharp drop
Distinctive growth cycle
Putting this out as current price is near all time high.
SPY 12:16 600.29 reversalMathematically it makes sense; I did some calculations and it seems like this is included in the most likely path for the market. Lost 7k on my LEAP account today so don't bank on it
SPY - 1 Hour ShortSPY – 1H Technical Breakdown (Short Bias)
Price action on SPY has recently traded into a clearly defined higher-timeframe supply zone, where prior bearish order flow originated. The current structure shows signs of exhaustion after a liquidity sweep above recent swing highs, which likely triggered breakout entries and stop-loss clusters — a common precursor to reversal.
We’ve observed a loss of momentum as price consolidates beneath this supply zone, signaling inefficient buying and a potential shift in control from buyers to sellers. The rejection from this zone aligns precisely with the projected schematic path, reinforcing the short bias and supporting the hypothesis of a distribution phase.
The anticipated move targets the mid-550s, a region marked by prior accumulation and unmitigated demand, making it a logical zone for price to seek out resting liquidity.
🔹 Key Technical Confluences:
Entry from a confirmed supply zone
Sweep of prior high followed by internal weakness
Structure showing early lower highs and compression beneath resistance
Market currently following the projected schematic path outlined in advance
🛡️ Risk Parameters:
Stop-loss is placed conservatively above the supply zone highs to account for further probing
Take-profit aligned with prior demand and structural inefficiencies
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Estimated 3:1+, offering a highly asymmetric return profile
This is a tactically planned short with strong technical backing. As long as price respects current structure, we maintain bearish conviction until the 555–560 zone is tested or invalidation occurs above the supply.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-12: BaseRally In Trend ModeToday's pattern suggests the markets may attempt to identify a base and move higher (rally) off that base level.
Given the overnight price activity, I suggest the process of identifying the base level could prompt a deeper early decline in price - possibly attempting to retest 595-597 lows before finding support and attempting to rally.
As I've been warning over the past few weeks/months, I'm still seeing the Excess Phase Peak pattern playing out as a Flag Termination - rolling into a downtrend and attempting to move back towards the $480 lows as a real possibility. I've been warning and watching for the breakdown in trend - but we've not seen it yet.
Thus, we are still BULLISH until we get a confirmation of a solid breakdown. That would be a move below the 580-585 level at this point. We need to see some type of solid breakdown in price, breaking away from the FLAG setup and moving downward, before I could confidently suggest the Flag Breakdown has happened.
Gold and Silver are making a big move higher. Gold is finally starting to move back above $3400 and I believe watching Silver, Gold, & Platinum rally suggests FEAR is elevating as we move into the end of June.
I still believe Gold has a chance to rally above $4k before the end of June. We'll see if it happens.
BTCUSD is moving into a DUAL-EPP pattern. This is very interesting. Watch the video as I highlight why this could prompt a dual-stage EPP breakdown in Bitcoin over the next 20 to 50+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SP500 in CHF terms, bearish outlook- checking the SP500 in USD seems misleading these days
- therefore I checked it with CHF and earlier movements made more sense
- RSI bearish divergences were followed in earlier periods
- now we have a potential head and shoulders formation
- seems more likely to head south
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💱 Dollar Slides on Trade Truce Hopes & Fed Outlook
The U.S. dollar dropped 0.4%—its lowest level since April 22—after President Trump signaled flexibility on a July 8 trade deadline and U.S.–China talks showed renewed progress, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts
📊 S&P Shiller CAPE Hints at Overvaluation Risk
Stocks and bonds rallied following rebound, but valuation metrics flash caution: the S&P 500 now sits in the 94th percentile of Shiller CAPE, and equity risk premium has dropped to zero. Analysts warn these levels often precede corrections
🛢️ Oil Holds at Seven-Week Highs
Oil prices remain near seven-week highs (~$66–67/barrel), supported by gradual OPEC+ output increases and hopes that easing trade tensions will aid demand
📈 CPI Cools Again, Bonds Climb
U.S. consumer inflation rose just 0.1% in May (2.4% YoY), easing expectations for tighter Fed policy. Consequently, Treasury yields softened and bond markets outperformed equities
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, June 12:
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May)
An early gauge of inflation at the wholesale level—may reinforce the cooling trend seen in CPI.
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
Weekly updates on unemployment filings. Key to monitor for labor-market tightening or softening.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—it does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
