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April 17, 2025 - Powell, Japan & TrumpHello everyone, it’s April 17, 2025. Yesterday’s U.S. trading was pure market carnage. Semiconductors ( NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:ASML ) were steamrolled as AI chip bans to China kicked in and Trump dropped another tariff bomb, hiking duties to 245%. That wiped $200 billion off Nvidia alone. In Chicago, Powell stoked the flames, warning tariffs will fuel inflation and choke growth, and insisted he’s in no rush to cut rates. The CME_MINI:NQ1! tumbled 3%, the CME_MINI:SOX1! lost 4.1%, and bond futures plunged. This morning, U.S. futures are up about 0.75% on headlines that Trump’s talks with Japanese negotiators are “going very well,” sparking rallies across Asia: Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong +2.7%, Shanghai +1%. It seems even a whiff of détente with Japan sends everyone scrambling back into risk assets. On commodities, BLACKBULL:WTI jumps to $63.35 amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts; OANDA:XAUUSD rockets to $3,352 /oz; INDEX:BTCUSD hovers near $83,500. Today watch the ECB’s rate cut, Powell’s next speech, Philly Fed and jobless claims before the Good Friday shutdown. With Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics and Powell’s warning of higher inflation and slower growth, volatility is set to reign supreme. Buckle up.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
4
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 17, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇪🇺 ECB Expected to Cut Rates Amid Trade Pressures: The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% during its meeting on April 17. This expected move aims to counteract the economic impact of recent U.S. tariffs and a strengthening euro, which have contributed to disinflationary pressures in the eurozone. 📉 German Inflation Decline Supports Easing: Germany's inflation rate fell more than expected in March, dropping to 2.3% from 2.6% in February. This decline, driven by falling oil prices and a sluggish economy, bolsters the case for further interest rate cuts by the ECB. 🤖 AI Enhances ECB Policy Predictions: A study by the German Institute for Economic Research indicates that artificial intelligence significantly improves the accuracy of forecasting ECB monetary policy decisions. By analyzing ECB communications, AI models can better anticipate policy shifts. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 17: 🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 1.420 million Previous: 1.501 million Indicates the number of new residential construction projects begun, reflecting housing market strength.​ 🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 3.7 Previous: 12.5 Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.​ 📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 223,000 Previous: 223,000 Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Spy Target $500I'm Basically Taking A Swing Trade All The Way Down To the $500 Target with a stop loss of about $545ish most likely being as stubborn as I am Probably Load up more at that price lol, if we even see that price to be honest but in all reality my absolute Stop out will be $547-$549. I Will be updating this post throughout the week... And if you need more advice Ill be here as always and check out some of my New Free Indicators on TradingView to help maximize your returns and as always Goodluck and safe trades
AMEX:SPYShort
by JoeWtrades
15
$SPY - Recap of April 14 2025 Today, Monday April 14th we opened with a gap UP to the 30min 200MA and we also gapped right to the top of the bear gap (always considered resistance and strengthened by the downward momentum of the 30min 200. We did see resistance with those combined bearish levels and we brought is back down to the middle, closed the gap from open and took it back to the 30min 200MA and got pushed back at close. This chart setup was bearish today - even though we closed green - how? The 30in 200MA pointing down. The bear gap under that. And the 35EMA trading Under the 30min 200MA. It was an easy trading day and just looking at the momentum you could feel that price was going to stay in the center of the implied move. At least I mentioned that in last night’s video. Excellent day. How did you guys do??
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
1
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Z-Score HMA Indicator OutlookOutside of the obvious news on Tarriffs, let's just focus on technicals for a moment: In case you’re in a hurry: My HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is currently signaling overbought conditions. The Z-Score has moved into the upper green zone, a level where reversals have historically occurred. Hull Moving Average (HMA) remains upward for now, but is approaching a potential flattening point. Price continues to respect a descending trendline, indicating resistance remains intact. Unless the trendline is broken with conviction, the probability favors a bearish reversion in SPY. HMA Z-Score Indicator Forecast: SPY Nearing Reversion Risk This week, my HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is signaling a statistically significant overbought condition in SPY. In case you are unfamiliar, this tool blends the statistical power of the Z-Score with the responsiveness of the Hull Moving Average to give us high-probability momentum and mean reversion setups. Let’s break down what it’s showing right now and why a pullback may be imminent. Z-Score in the Green: What That Means The Z-Score component of my indicator is now in the upper green zone, which I’ve defined as statistically overbought territory. This isn’t arbitrary, it's based on historical distribution thresholds that flag when price has moved too far, too fast from its average. In past instances when the Z-Score has reached these levels, the market has often reverted back toward the mean. It's not guaranteed, of course but the odds shift. This is one of the key features of my indicator: identifying these moments where the risk/reward tilts away from chasing price and toward anticipating a reversion. HMA as a Momentum Filter The Hull Moving Average (HMA) provides the trend context in this setup. Right now, the HMA is still pointing upward, but it’s starting to show early signs of rounding off. If it begins to flatten or turn downward while the Z-Score remains elevated, that would act as a confirmation of a momentum shift and strengthen the case for a pullback. The HMA has consistently helped filter out false Z-Score signals when the trend is strong. But when both tools start aligning, that's when I pay closer attention. Descending Trendline Holding as Resistance On the chart, I’ve drawn a descending trendline connecting recent swing highs. So far, price has failed to break through this line, continuing a pattern of lower highs. As long as price respects that line, it suggests sellers are still in control of the short-term structure. If SPY gets rejected again here, particularly while the Z-Score is elevated, the probability of a downside move increases significantly. Bearish Bias: What the Data Suggests The core logic behind this setup is based on reversion to the mean. When price extends beyond typical volatility bands (as measured by the Z-Score) and momentum stalls (as reflected by the HMA), it often precedes a return to more normalized levels. Right now, we have: A Z-Score reading in overbought territory, A potentially topping HMA, Resistance still holding at the descending trendline. That’s a confluence of signals that, in my indicator's design, suggests a bearish reversion is more likely than a continuation. What I’m Watching This Week To confirm the setup, I’ll be watching for: HMA flattening or beginning to roll over, Break of recent short-term support to trigger downside momentum. If these conditions start stacking up, the short bias becomes actionable. If instead we see a breakout above the trendline with conviction and volume, I’ll re-evaluate because no indicator is bigger than price. The HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator is designed to anticipate high-probability turning points, and right now, it's signaling elevated risk for a short-term reversal in SPY. As always, these are probabilities, not certainties.
AMEX:SPYShort
by erikabarker
Non-US ETFs outperform during trade warNon-US markets are showing resilience during this year's remarkable volatility. While NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY are down more than 10%, AMEX:VEA (non-U.S. Developed Markets ETF) is up nearly 5%... AMEX:IEMG (tracking Emerging Markets) is negative so far, but less severe than others. Will Trump's volatile trade war lead to further outflow from the U.S. financial system? Meanwhile, gold has been rallying to record highs as the world seeks an alternative to the dollar.
AMEX:SPY
by MikeCoMacro
BEAR TRAP in SPY?🐻 BEAR TRAP in SPY? After a sharp correction, SPY is showing a possible Bear Trap formation — right at the zone where the market often catches short sellers off guard. 📊 The pattern resembles the "First Sentiment Extreme" > Shakeout > Bear Trap phase from the classic market psychology cycle (see inset chart). 🔍 Supporting signs: RSI bouncing off oversold territory (currently at 49.32) MACD showing a bullish crossover forming A strong bounce after a panic flush If this is indeed a bear trap... 📈 we could be at the early stage of renewed optimism. The next few candles are crucial — confirmation could ignite a sharp reversal. 🧠 Don’t chase. Wait for confirmation. But stay alert.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SmartSignalss
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-14 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will move in a moderate upward price trend. Although I don't expect anything huge today, I do believe the EPP structures/layers support this upward price move and that we'll see the SPY attempt to move back towards/above 550 over time. The QQQ will likely follow the SPY higher over the next 5+ days. Don't get too excited about this upward price move because it is structurally moving to setup a PEAK that will transition into a downtrend near April 22-25. This peak will create a downward price flag (a new inverted EPP) structure that will assist in developing a new sideways price structure carrying into June/July. In other words, it looks like we are trapped between 480-585 on the SPY, and we will likely stay within that wide consolidation range for another 2-3 months. Gold should attempt to rally this week, trying to break above $3300. I believe this is a critical level for Gold and also presents a breakaway level for Silver near $33.00 Bitcoin has moved into APEX VOLATILITY and will continue to trap BUYERS into believing BTCUSD is breaking away from the consolidation range. This is a BULL TRAP. I believe BTCUSD will ROLL OVER within about 4-5 days - setting up a big breakdown move as the SPY/QQQ also roll downward in about 5+ days. We still continue to see volatility and sideways price action. Still lots of opportunities for skilled traders. Get Some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
9
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 16, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:30 PM ET, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. Additionally, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak at 12:00 PM ET, and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at 7:00 PM ET. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 16: 🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +1.2% Previous: +0.2% Measures the total receipts of retail stores, reflecting consumer spending trends. ​ 🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1% Previous: +0.7% Indicates the output of the nation's factories, mines, and utilities. ​ 🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 37 Previous: 39 Assesses the confidence of homebuilders in the market for newly built single-family homes. ​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY at a Crossroad: Gamma Tug of War Into Next Week🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) * Trend Channel: SPY is trading in a rising wedge formation. Price is currently nearing the top of the ascending channel with a breakout attempt forming from the wedge compression zone. * Structure: Strong push off the 510s, now challenging key resistance near $548, which aligns with the top channel and GEX walls. * Support Zones: * $526 (previous breakout retest + HVL) * $509 and $485 (key breakdown structure if momentum fades) * Resistance Levels: * $548.26 (local horizontal level and wedge top) * $555-$560 (Gamma wall / 3rd CALL wall) * Volume: Buying pressure is fading slightly as we approach key resistance, signaling a need for a catalyst to continue upward. * RSI: Neutral to bullish, still has room to push above 60 if trend continues. 🧠 Options Sentiment – GEX Insights * Highest Positive GEX Zone: $555-$560 – A significant CALL wall where market makers may resist further upside due to hedging dynamics. * Put Support: $526 is the HVL and $520-$526 shows the strongest negative GEX cluster — meaning bulls must defend this zone. * Max Pain Pivot: The $540 strike is sandwiched between major PUT and CALL hedging zones, meaning increased volatility is likely around here. * Options Oscillator: * IVR: 67.8 – Slightly elevated, indicating traders are paying up for protection. * PUTs 132.6% – Extreme PUT pressure. This could either fuel a gamma squeeze if we stay above $540, or lead to a violent flush if we break $526. 💡 Trade Setups & Scenarios Bullish Case: If SPY holds above $534-$536: * Entry: $536 breakout * Target: $548 → $555 → $560 * Stop: Below $526 * Strategy: Consider vertical debit CALL spreads (e.g., 535/550 or 540/560) for low-risk directional play. If IV climbs more, look at calendar CALL spreads. Bearish Case: If SPY loses $534 with momentum: * Entry: $532 break or rejection from $540 * Target: $526 → $509 * Stop: Above $540 * Strategy: PUT debit spreads (e.g., 530/515), or bearish butterflies around $520 if expecting a pin into next week. 🧠 My Take SPY is wedging at a sensitive GEX zone. Gamma walls are clearly defined on both sides. Price holding above 534 opens the door to a squeeze, but rejection at $540-$548 likely brings sellers. Watch how price reacts around $536-$540 — this is the battlefield. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 15, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🏦 Major Bank Earnings: Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are set to report Q1 earnings before the market opens. BAC is expected to post an EPS of $0.81, while Citigroup anticipates $1.84. Investors will closely watch these reports for insights into the financial sector's health amid ongoing market volatility. ​ 💊 Healthcare and Consumer Goods Reports: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is also scheduled to release its earnings, with forecasts indicating an EPS of $2.57. These results will provide a glimpse into the performance of the healthcare and consumer goods sectors. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, April 15: 📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.1% Previous: +0.4% Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.​ 🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -10.0 Previous: -20.0 Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.​ 🗣️ Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks (7:10 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao