Bad and Good trade examles what went on in my head todayI describe some of my loses and bad trades today and point out a trade that made sense.
SPY trade ideas
Pre defined levels Check the fib levels to line up with previous support and resistance tell me these were not pre orchestrated drops . Will long over 523.5 and short below
15 Minutes.AMEX:SPY Aug 6, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY managed to hold above 505 yesterday.
We take 3 numbers
The fall 554.86 to 510.28
The fall 533.17 to 510.28
The fall 523.58 to 514.9
For the first fall AMEX:SPY made lL but oscillator also LL. Hence sell on rise probably until 538 is crossed.
For the second fall AMEX:SPY even with gap doen yesterday AMEX:SPY managed to retrace 61.8% arounf 523.5 levels.
Hence 510 should provide a good support today.
For the third set from 523.58 to 514.90 a retracement to 521 levels will give a change to short as it is also 50 averages.
On upside if 524 is crossed and we get a good close being near top of bar then 530-532 should be a target to aim as it will be approximately 100 200 averages number.
So, for the day i will go long above 524 and short 521 levels.
$SPY #RisingWedge #BearFlag "That's Bidenomics! Puts!" #WarnedPretty clear flagpole + flag(rising wedge) = bearish technicals ALL OVER
I think market is in for another shake up day like we've experienced the past 2 weeks...
This rising wedge looks is present on most of the MAG7 at the moment... Warning Sent
(Null and void if we continue up with strength and hold on the month 550+)
No positions at the moment = waiting for market to confirm thesis...
*Hearing Emergency rate cut if SP:SPX close below 5,350 on the month...
Flagpoles leads/measure us right there = "decision spot" (Biden ClownWorld Upside-down USA)
=) Proph
SPY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 080524Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 510/61.80%
Chart time frame : C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the Support
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
SPY breakout from consolidation - uptrend is not brokenSpy has now broken out of consolidation. I feel election year is gonna push this higher along with the economic downturn. Some will say economic downturn? How is that bullish. Its bullish because, the last thing America would want during an economic downturn is their stock market to collapse. They keep propping this up until the foreign money in the US market is at maximum levels. That when they'll dump. Once the foreign money is shaken out, they will resume uptrend. This is just my personal theory. Whichever way, the price action is bullish. Some will point at volume. Over the years, i have never found volume to be a reliable indicator.
SPY: Final thoughtsFinal thoughts on SPY, well not necessarily thoughts but uh, final observations on SPY.
I am leaving SPY alone for a while, taking a break and heading out on vacay.
I'll be back in some weeks and we'll see where SPY is then.
Thanks for watching, I appreciate all of everyone's support and follows.
As always, take care and safe trades!
Correction: At the end I said 420s, I meant 520s!!
August 5th Trade Journaling.Lost $250 today. I go through some of my trades and walk through why they were bad or good trades. ALWAYS WATCH VOLUME.
S&P weekly consolidation in progress; bears prove controlLast week was marked by hectic price action in both directions. Bulls failed to set a daily low for two consecutive days (Monday-Tuesday), which logically led to a strong bearish attack. Then something peculiar happened – the price pivoted near the previous low and went up during the overnight session. The market opened with a huge gap on Wednesday, held the open, and even managed to rally further in the regular session. I can only imagine how many short traders, who had done everything right, suffered from this.
This price action also confused many long traders, including myself, by making us believe that the weekly consolidation was coming to an end. But Thursday turned the board 180 degrees again with a psychotic bearish move, wiping out more than 2% of the market value. Again, as with the bullish rally, there was no obvious trigger unless you believe that PMI data could wield such importance.
At this point, we have the following disposition:
1. The market is still in a weekly uptrend. Until sellers take down the previous major low (491), nothing changes in this regard.
2. Bears have proved strong control over the weekly timeframe. We should respect this.
3. Bears were also able to start monthly consolidation, another sign of their strength.
All in all, I wouldn’t consider any long-term “buys” until bulls manage to set a convincing weekly low, even then with caution. Shorting is an option but is very tricky in light of what happened last week.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
Potential Entry PointsHistory has a way of repeating itself and I think it could again.... Execute the plan
SPX: Market at Risk of Major Correction
RSI divergence is one of the strongest indicators that has shown the bring major corrections to S&P500 historically.
We are now observing the formation of a near decade long RSI divergence which could put the entire market at extreme risk of 20% correction to 50% crash.
If July closes with a shooting star pattern, we should continue to slide down till RSI rest near 20's for the next couple of years.
SPY Monthly Megaphones - Longer term SP500 buying planTLDR: Flat on stocks, waiting for very deep discounts several years in the future
Details:
Expecting it to make another megaphone shape similar to the one it made from 2017 to 2020.
The idea is it will hunt for liquidity under the 350 swing. This means to watch for a buying zone in the region of 372 to 290 from around July 2025 to May 2026.
This zone also lines up with the lines of several long term pitchforks and gives exit targets along those forks' medians.
Reasons to expect so much bearishness include:
Nancy Pelosi, Buffet selling at the top
Intel CEO praying on twitter
Unrest in UK
Tensions/war in Gaza, Ukraine, Iran
Kramer saying it's not the end of the world
If those situations resolve then it may not need to hunt deeply below 350 and in fact the 400 price zone may be a better re-entry spot.
But if the overall macro news stories continue to be saturated with uncertainty then it's much better to wait for deeply discounted prices rather than catch a falling knife.
SPY BEARISH SEASONALITYThe SP500 Index, and specifically the SPY ETF, has been mostly bearish in the past 96 years during the period from August 2nd to September 30th.If we perform the same analysis on seasonality over a shorter time period (e.g., 10 or 25 years), the statistics don't change much. Seasonality is not favorable, and this year, due to the relentless and unstoppable rises since October '23 and a concurrently unstable geopolitical situation, I would suggest postponing any averaging or purchase of shares for an accumulation plan in this instrument until mid-October. We might see a reduction in volatility, but a return of the index to new highs seems unlikely. Whatever you do, please be cautious with money management and avoid blindly following the dangerous 'Buy the Dip' strategy. Thank you.
8-5-24 Developing Pinescript Tools For TradersPart of my learning process with TradingView has been to delve a bit into Pinescript.
I've been programming for a while now - more than 20 years. But I focus on developing modeling systems, adaptive AI types of solutions, and fully automated trading systems for clients.
Pinescript has been fun. Overall, I believe there are many advanced capabilities achievable in Pinescript as long as one sticks to simple principles.
_ a focus on core elements as separate script components
_ remember to clean/document up your processes/arrays as you go
_ develop core logic functions first, then go back and address display features
_ remember to organize your code in a way you can clearly address version changes
In this example, I started with the idea of building a tool based on Fibonacci Price Theory, then came up with an idea to measure price pressure differently than others had done.
Once I started playing with the display features (plot) I was able to see how my initial scripts worked and how the calculated data represents price trends/changes.
For me, seeing is the biggest part of the process. If I can't see how the data looks - then it is almost unusable for me to build more advanced logical features.
That's why I suggest building each component of your system out as unique indicators. I want to see the data/indicator work before I try to build some additional trading logic with it.
Overall, I'm very happy with what I've built. It has taken me about 2 weeks to build all of this (only really applying a few hours every other day or so).
One last thing, use the newbar feature to control persistent variable features. Otherwise, you may end up creating something that processes every tick.
More soon.
#toolsfortraders #trading #spy #qqq #btcusd #strategy #systems #coding
SPY strong down energy to $521-26I dowse stocks and indexes, and I've had SPX over 5600 for a long time. (Everything I do is really just a great research project, btw) We've turned off of there and I had a dream on the 10th with my signal for a reversal down.
The dowsing is really in my face about some heavier move down. Main target is probably $523, but it's a zone.
I keep getting advised to get a time of the day. When that happens, it's usually signaling a bigger reversal. The times keep coming around 11:00- 11:20 (or more like 11:10), but I think it's for tomorrow. So I'll be watching for a high. Though half the time I'm wrong about the call on direction, but the reversal will happen, so flexibility is important.
Another note is that earlier this year I did monthly readings to see if they would be accurate at all. It's been super encouraging and did suggest a down in July that bottoms out in August. Be VERY aware of the date of August 12th.
That date comes up multiple times including out of the blue when my psychic friend asked me last week what the 12th is about.
We'll see if we really get as high as dowsing is saying. I kind of doubt that part, but it would look pretty filling that gap and offer a bigger trade on the downside.
I'll update if I get anything new, and will note that I have some personal energy around this that makes it a bit suspect. Or, like I might be missing something, so I just want to be transparent about that. Good luck!
