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SPY trade ideas

Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades. QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low IWM - Green today but similar to DIA Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move. WATCHLIST: Bullish : NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2 Bearish : NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other" NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15): ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
Daily Watchlist (12/17/24) + Market NotesSPY - Failing attempts all over to reclaim highs and lows, so we are making new intraday Broadening Formations. The current one as seen in the chart, is looking to potentially head back through previous range if unable to continue to the upside pivots around 608.40 and 609. Given we have FOMC news Wednesday, I am not expecting too much to happen tomorrow as we are stuck in previous range and keep seeing failed attempts to reclaim pivots. Of course anything can happen, but I will strictly be watching individual names only for trades. QQQ - New ATH again today. Nothing special to note besides the fact that tech is obviously leading things this week DIA - Polar opposite of QQQ. Industrials getting slammed again this week as DIA puts in its 8th consecutive Daily lower low IWM - Green today but similar to DIA Overall market notes: Its clear that the market continues to see cyclical names move higher while more defensive and noncyclical names continue lower. In light of FOMC this week, it doesn't seem like any sectors are making too big of shifts besides financials finally seeing some buying again. Mainly just concerned with what SPY does this Wednesday as it seems like usual we are waiting for the news before making the next significant move. WATCHLIST: Bullish : NASDAQ:PLTR - Potential 3-2U daily with a potential 3-1-2U 4HR to trigger the day. FTFC green, but week is inside with lots of room to go for either side to go 2 Bearish : NYSE:UBER - Potential 2-1-2D Daily. Shooter inside day to put week 2D and confirm Q attempting to go 3 after hitting hammer revstrat upside magnitude earlier this Q NYSE:PFE - Potential 3-2D daily to put week 3-2D. Weekly reversal occurred at Q exhaustion, but failed 2 upside attempts now. "Fail one side, target the other" NYSE:PINS - Potential 3-2D Daily to confirm Weekly 3-2-2D in force with magnitude left Notable winners from weekly watchlist (posted Sunday 12/15): ETSY, RBLX, RKLB, OXY, WMT
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
Main reversal area The main weekly buy/sell area on the SPY chart is a critical zone where significant price movements often occur. This area is determined by key support and resistance levels, which are influenced by various factors, including economic indicators like the Money Supply M3. Money Supply M3 (M3) The Money Supply M3 is a broad measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes currency, deposits, and other liquid assets. Changes in M3 can indicate economic trends and influence market sentiment. Current Analysis High Risk: The current analysis suggests that the main buy/sell area is at very high risk. This could be due to several factors, such as: Economic Uncertainty: Fluctuations in the Money Supply M3 can create uncertainty in the market, leading to higher volatility. Political Events: Recent political events or announcements can impact investor confidence and market stability. Market Sentiment: Negative sentiment among investors can lead to increased selling pressure, pushing prices down. Implications for Traders Caution Advised: Given the high-risk nature of the main buy/sell area, traders should exercise caution. It may be wise to wait for clearer signals before making significant trades. Risk Management: Implementing strict risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, can help protect against potential losses. Monitoring Indicators: Keeping an eye on other economic indicators and market sentiment can provide additional insights and help make more informed trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheRealDonaldDuck
S&P is Shaping a Bull Flag While Awaiting the FED DecisionLast week was characterized by increasing selling pressure that hindered upward price progression but failed to trigger any substantial pullback. The market has not even retested the previous consolidation zone ( 598-601 ), which highlights the weakness of the sellers. Looking at the daily chart, the recent price action resembles a bull flag, favoring a continuation of the upward trend. For sellers to demonstrate their strength, they must not only break this pattern to the downside but also breach the 598 support level and drive the price further down to 594 . Much will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, alongside the release of key economic data. The most favorable outcome for the bulls would be a 0.25% rate cut. Any other scenario could spark concerns—either about an impending recession (if the cut is larger) or about a prolonged high-interest-rate environment (if the cut is absent). The market outlook remains bullish; however, the current price level is not ideal for new long positions. Buyers would be better served by waiting for a more meaningful pullback (e.g., to the 600 level), provided it is not driven by a negative shift in economic sentiment.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
Daily analysis of intraday trading in US stocksWhat is this blog about? The blog is dedicated to intraday trading on the US stock market (NYSE, NASDAQ exchanges). After each trading session, I choose the most interesting and understandable stock in terms of making a profit and do a detailed analysis of it, indicating the prerequisites for opening a position, entry and exit points. The analysis is conducted in accordance with the applied trading system, which is based on the price reaction to horizontal levels (rebound, breakout, false breakout) and volumes. I do not use indicators. Each analysis is accompanied by a screenshot of the trade. There is a daily (and in some cases, hourly) chart in the upper part, which is used to analyze the overall picture and draw daily levels. There is a minute (in some cases, two-minute) chart in the lower part, which is used for intraday analysis, drawing intraday levels, entering and exiting a position. What is the practical benefit of trade analyses? Broad visual experience is one of the key components of successful trading on financial markets, in addition to the trading system, psychology and risk management. Normally traders spend thousands of hours looking at charts before it starts to bring positive results. However, simply looking at the chart is not enough. We need to understand what exactly we are looking for there and what situations allow us to make a profit with a higher probability. Analysis of trades helps to solve one of the main problems of beginner traders - lack of visual experience, and for experienced traders this is an opportunity to add/correct their trading system with new trading scenarios. How to select stocks for trading? It is important to select the right stocks every day that have the potential to make a profit with a high probability, in order to be successful in intraday trading. Main criteria for selection: 1. High liquidity (trading volume from 1,000,000 units and above) 2. High activity in the premarket 3. Pure directional movement 4. The stock movement does not repeat the market movement 5. "Respect" for levels both in the premarket and in the main session 6. The presence of a catalyst for movement (news, earnings, technical etc.) These criteria are perfectly suited to the so-called Stocks In Play, which make significant non-standard movements within one trading session, which often exceed the standard price movement (ATR) several times, influenced by a strong catalyst background.
AMEX:SPY
by AlexX31
Watchlist (12/16-12/20) Using TheStratSPY Analysis: Month is 2U but back under previous M high and close to flipping red. Last week was 2D but failed to get to magnitude and closed red, but above the reversal trigger at previous week lows. Daily was 2D on Friday, so the daily actionable signal would be a 2D-2U reversal if buyers were strong enough to make a higher high on the daily come Monday. To get us lower, we have a 3-1 4HR setup as well as a shooter 2U Hourly candle. Trigger and target levels can be seen on the chart. Overall, we have some confliction as the D and W are red while the M is still green. This shows an attempt to flip the month red and we must view it this way until we see a daily higher high. If that were to happen, then we look to see the week flip red and then possibly make a higher high on the week for the weekly reversal back to the upside, which would re confirm the month being 2U and green. Traditional TA traders will see a wedge or bull flag on the daily/4HR, but as Strat traders, we know this is just a lack of strength from either side as we continue seeing failed attempts to make HHs and LLs. Although unconventional, if you check the 3 Day TF through the 8 Day TF, you will see they are all currently inside bars in formation still. We also know that inside bars restart the process of making broadening formations, so now its just a waiting game. We see the current attempt is to make lower lows on the daily since we failed to take highs out after the daily reversal, so we now either take out lows, or fail and move back through previous range to the upside. With conflicting situations like this, you just have to rely on timeframe continuity. Until the M, W, D, and 60 are all the same color, simply fall back on top down analysis and timeframe continuity to see what's really going on regardless of how the charts may look Weekly Watchlist: Bullish: ETSY - 2-1 Week, Failed 2D Day. FTFC Green, so looking for BF expansion on the weekly CRWD - 2-1 Hammer Week. 4HR inside bar. Monthly 3-2-2 still slowly compounding 2Us to Mag RBLX - MoMO Hammer 2U week. 2-1 Daily to trigger week RKLB - 3-2D Hammer Week. Relatively large ATR and high rVol Bearish: MCD - 3-1 Week, Shooter 2U Day PINS - 3-2U failed Week, No Daily AS. Weekly Motherbar issues so caution here PDD 1-2U failed week (Revstrat). No Daily AS. Going for large weekly BF magnitude ROKU - Failed 2U Week. At Monthly exhaustion risk. Daily PMG and gap fill potential OXY - 2-1 Shooter Week. Not much range, but clean weekly AS and all big oil names deep red DDOG - 2-1 Week (Huge red week), Daily 1-3. 2 Daily gap fills, and some weekly lows to target LVS - 2-3 Week. At Q exhaustion. Will be FTFC Red before W triggers the 3-2D Neutral: WMT - 2-1 Week, Daily 3-2D failed. Daily AS could send it back into ATH. Alternatively there is an 11 pivot PMG to the downside + a small gap to fill
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
SPY's Downtrend Reversal: A Technical InsightIn this TradingView idea, we delve into the recent price action of the SPY on the 15-minute candle frame. Observing the chart, it becomes evident that the persistent downtrend is showing signs of exhaustion. A key indicator of this potential reversal is the presence of a fair value gap (FVG), which suggests a temporary imbalance in the market. Notably, as the price made its next downward move, it failed to leave behind a fair value gap, indicating a lack of institutional buying at this level. This absence of institutional interest could imply that the price is stabilizing, setting the stage for a potential upward movement. The focus now shifts to the unmitigated bearish fair value gaps that remain. The last significant bearish FVG was identified between the levels of 605.48 and 605.44. As the price cools down, it is poised to retrace and potentially mitigate these unaddressed gaps. This technical setup suggests a strategic opportunity for traders to anticipate a reversal, as the SPY looks to regain its footing and possibly embark on a bullish trajectory. (Price Will Still Push Down a little Unless a Bearish Fair Value Gap is Formed and then enter Shorts at the Bearish Fair Value Gap that would Form.) This analysis underscores the importance of fair value gaps in understanding market dynamics and predicting potential price movements. Let this Act as a FVG Trading Session to help get you trading SMART MONEY CONCEPTS >>>
AMEX:SPYShort
by CapitalGainz33
1
GEX Analysis for SPY - December 13, 2024Current Price: $605.37
IVR: 8.1
IVx Average: 11.6
Options Sentiment: Bearish with 59.1% in Puts. Key Levels: Resistance: * $608.00: CALL Resistance (Major resistance level). * $609.00 - $610.00: 2nd CALL Wall, indicating a strong barrier. Support: * $605.00: HVL (1DTE Key level). * $604.00: Highest Negative NETGEX / PUT Wall. * $603.00 - $602.00: 2nd PUT Wall, highlighting downside targets. Sentiment & Projection: * SPY faces a challenging resistance at $608.00. A move above this level could target $610.00, but bearish sentiment remains dominant. * Breaking below $605.00 could increase selling pressure toward $604.00 and $603.00. Trading Strategies: Bullish: * Entry Above: $608.50 (Requires strong momentum). * Target: $610.00. * Stop Loss: $607.00. Bearish: * Entry Below: $605.00. * Target: $604.00, $603.00. * Stop Loss: $606.00. Reminder: Always monitor IVR and IVx for live updates to align with market conditions before executing trades. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Perform your own due diligence before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY going down until Bullish Fair Value Gap is Formed above 604Bearish Outlook on SPY Title: Navigating SPY's Bearish Terrain: An Educational Insight Introduction: In the world of trading, understanding market dynamics is crucial, much like the speculative nature of meme coins. This idea focuses on SPY's potential downside movement, drawing parallels to the educational approach used in identifying promising meme coins. Let's explore SPY's current market conditions and potential strategies. Current Market Analysis: Price Action: SPY closed at $604.68 on December 9, 2024. The market sentiment is currently negative, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Technical Indicators: Oscillators suggest a sell due to overbought conditions, while moving averages indicate a buy signal. This mixed outlook highlights the importance of a cautious approach. Bearish Fair Value Gaps: Key Levels: Two bearish fair value gaps have formed: Gap 1: $607.22 to $606.47 Gap 2: $605.04 to $604.79 Strategy: Traders should monitor these gaps closely. If SPY respects these gaps, it could signal further downside movement. A bullish fair value gap forming above the most recent bearish gap could indicate a potential reversal. Educational Insight: Story and Narrative: Just as meme coins thrive on compelling stories, SPY's movement is influenced by broader market narratives. Understanding these stories can guide trading decisions. Community and Sentiment: Engage with trading communities to gauge sentiment and gather insights. A strong community can provide valuable perspectives, much like in the meme coin space. Option Strategy Recommendations: Long Put Options: Consider long put options with strike prices aligned with the bearish gaps. This strategy leverages the potential downside while managing risk. Conclusion: Navigating SPY's bearish terrain requires a blend of technical analysis and market awareness. By drawing parallels to the educational approach used in meme coin analysis, traders can enhance their understanding and strategy formulation. Remember, thorough research and a cautious approach are key to successful trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by CapitalGainz33
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction: With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment: Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns. Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds. Analysis: Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities. Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode. What to Watch: Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution. Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance) Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
SPY Market Setup: Key Levels $ Options Strategy for Dec.12, 2024Overview of GEX Levels * Resistance Levels: * $609: GEX9 and 3rd Call Wall, representing strong resistance where sellers may emerge. * $607: 2nd Call Wall and the highest positive NETGEX, marking a critical resistance level. * Support Levels: * $605: GEX7, providing a significant support level for pullbacks. * $603: HVL (Highest Volume Level), a pivotal support zone. Holding above this level indicates bullish strength. * $602: GEX support zone, with $601 acting as the final support level. Options Oscillator Indicator Insights * IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 6.6 (low volatility rank). * Suggests subdued implied volatility, favoring non-directional strategies or narrow price ranges. * IVx Avg: 11.5. * Current implied volatility is near average levels, suitable for premium-selling strategies. * Put$/Call$ Ratio: 45.9% skewed toward puts. * Reflects bearish sentiment, with more traders hedging or positioning for downside risk. Technical Setup * SPY is trading within a tight range, with resistance at $607 and support near $605 and $603. A break above $607 could lead to a retest of $609, while a drop below $603 may open the door to bearish momentum toward $602 and $601. Options Trading Strategy * Bullish Play: * Buy SPY Dec 15, 2024, $607 Calls if price breaks and holds above $607. Target: $609; Stop: $605. * Neutral Play: * Sell SPY Dec 15, 2024, $607 Calls and buy $610 Calls (credit spread) if price consolidates below $607, taking advantage of limited price movement. * Bearish Play: * Buy SPY Dec 15, 2024, $605 Puts if price falls below $603 with strong volume. Target: $602; Stop: $606. Conclusion
SPY is consolidating near critical levels, with $607 acting as the key pivot for tomorrow's price action. Options sentiment and GEX levels suggest caution, with potential for both upside breakouts and downside pullbacks. Traders should focus on breakout or rejection signals around $607 and $603 for actionable setups. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights