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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-12: Breakaway PatternToday's video goes into detail related to the general SPY/QQQ trending and the continued potential for a price Anomaly Event. It is likely that the markets continue a Santa Rally phase - attempting to push higher throughout the end of 2024 and into 2025. I want everyone to understand that the anomaly event I keep suggesting may happen is an outlier event. It would be driven by some news, political, financial or other type of market event. If that event does not happen, then the markets will likely continue to push higher and higher. So, remember, the markets want to push higher into the typical Santa Rally. My Anomaly event would be a potential outlier event - driving a moderate pullback in price. Gold and Silver should move into a moderate topping pattern today - possibly pulling downward a big. This would be a goo setup for the next rally phase higher. That rally may come tomorrow or into early next week. Bitcoin is trapped within a consolidation range. The rally yesterday was nice to see, but right now we are seeing Bitcoin struggle below resistance. So, we still need to be cautious about rolling downward. Yet, the general trend for Bitcoin right now is upward. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
SPY Technical Analysis and Options Strategy with GEX GammaGamma Levels and Observations Using GEX Profile: The GEX Profile provides critical insights into the underlying price action by identifying gamma-related support and resistance zones. Here's a breakdown of the key levels derived from the GEX indicator: 1. Resistance Levels: * 610: Significant call gamma resistance. Price movement above this zone often requires increased buying pressure as market makers adjust their hedging positions to counterbalance gamma exposure. * 605: A pivotal resistance level where SPY struggled to break above. This area caps bullish momentum as market makers' hedging activities intensify to maintain stability. 2. Support Levels: * 600: A major put gamma support level. This zone tends to attract buying activity because market makers may adjust their hedging positions to provide stability as the price approaches. * 595: The next gamma-supported area below 600. This level acts as a secondary buffer, absorbing selling pressure as gamma exposure decreases. Price Action and Gamma Interaction: * Today’s price action showed a clear respect for the 600 gamma support, reflecting increased hedging activities by market makers. This level stabilized the price as it approached, attracting buying interest. * On the upside, 605 gamma resistance acted as a ceiling, showing stabilization from market makers' hedging adjustments. A break above this level may indicate reduced hedging pressure and a bullish shift. Options Strategy Plan: 1. Bullish Scenario: * Strategy: Vertical Call Spread * Setup: * Buy the 605 Call. * Sell the 610 Call. * Target: Profit from a move toward 610. * Risk Management: Close the position if SPY drops below 600. 2. Bearish Scenario: * Strategy: Vertical Put Spread * Setup: * Buy the 600 Put. * Sell the 595 Put. * Target: Gain from a decline toward 595. * Risk Management: Exit if SPY reclaims 605. 3. Range-Bound Scenario: * Strategy: Iron Condor * Setup: * Upper Range: Sell the 605 Call, Buy the 610 Call. * Lower Range: Sell the 600 Put, Buy the 595 Put. * Target: Profit from SPY staying between 600 and 605. * Risk Management: Adjust or close the trade if the price moves outside the range. Selecting the Best Expiration Date for Options: 1. Short-Term Trades: * If you anticipate a quick move (1-3 days), use weekly options (closest expiration) to benefit from higher delta sensitivity and lower upfront costs. * For instance: * Bullish Trade: Use the nearest Friday expiration for the 605/610 Call Spread. * Bearish Trade: Use the nearest Friday expiration for the 600/595 Put Spread. 2. Medium-Term Trades: * If you expect the move to play out over 1-2 weeks, select options expiring 7-14 days out. This helps balance theta decay with enough time for the move to develop. * Example: * Bullish: Buy the 605 Call Spread expiring next Friday. * Bearish: Buy the 600 Put Spread expiring next Friday. 3. Hedging or Longer-Term Views: * For broader market hedging or if you're less certain about timing, use monthly options (15-45 days out). These allow time for the trade to develop and reduce the impact of time decay. * Example: * Buy the 610 Call (bullish) or the 595 Put (bearish) expiring in the next monthly cycle. Projection: * Bullish Case: SPY breaks above 605, targeting 610 with momentum-driven buying. Reduced selling pressure above this level may support further upside. * Bearish Case: Failure to hold 600 could drive SPY toward 595, as hedging activities intensify to counter selling momentum. Hedging Explained in Context: Gamma hedging impacts price movements significantly. Market makers adjust their positions based on gamma exposure: * At positive gamma levels like 605, market makers sell into strength, stabilizing price movements. This creates resistance. * At negative gamma levels like 600, market makers buy into weakness, supporting the price and reducing volatility. These dynamics allow traders to anticipate where market makers might influence price action. Trading Plan for Tomorrow: 1. Bullish Approach: * Look for a sustained move above 605 with increased volume. * Target: 610. * Stop-loss: Below 603. 2. Bearish Approach: * Watch for a break below 600 with strong selling pressure. * Target: 595. * Stop-loss: Above 602. 3. Neutral Strategy: * If price consolidates between 600 and 605, consider range-bound strategies like an iron condor. Disclaimer: This technical analysis and options strategy are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Options trading carries significant risk, and traders should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 12-11: Flat Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will slide downward after the CPI data came in as expected. I believe the markets are going to roll into an Excess Phase Peak pattern over the next 5+ days - setting up a big potential downward price swing (the Anomaly Event) before the end of 2024. Gold is moving into a CRUSH pattern today. We may see a very big price move (I suspect higher) today as traders move to hedge weakness and market concerns globally. Bitcoin recently set a new lower low, showing us that the dominant trend is Bearish. Bitcoin set up another potential Excess Phase Peak pattern, totaling four current Excess Phase Peak patterns in this broad sideways consolidation range. The breakout, either to the upside or downside, in Bitcoin could be very explosive. Remember, we continue to trade into a low liquidity price trend throughout the end of 2024. So stay cautious and stay aware of the risks for the Anomaly Event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
SPY Analysis: Will the S&P 500 Break Support or Rebound?Technical Analysis Price Action Breakdown: * Today’s Performance: SPY experienced a bearish session, breaking below key support levels around $608 and testing $604 by the end of the day. * Support and Resistance Levels: * Resistance: $609.07 and $612.00 are key overhead levels to watch. * Support: Immediate support lies at $604.35, with a critical level at $597.25. Indicators: * MACD: The MACD shows bearish momentum, with the histogram declining and the signal line below the MACD line. * Moving Averages: * SPY has broken below the 50-period moving average, signaling weakness. * The 200-period moving average is acting as support near $595. Trendlines and Channels: * Descending Trendline: A short-term downtrend is forming, with SPY unable to reclaim higher highs from last week. Liquidity Zones and Order Blocks: * Liquidity Zone: Strong liquidity is observed between $608 and $604, suggesting institutional activity at these levels. Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: * If SPY reclaims $608, it may retest $609 and move toward $612. 2. Bearish Scenario: * A break below $604 could lead to a test of $597 and potentially lower levels at $595. Trading Plan Scalping Strategy: * Entry Points: * Long: Above $608 with a target of $609 and $612. * Short: Below $604 with a target of $597. * Stop Loss: * For long trades, place a stop loss at $606. * For short trades, use $606 as a stop. Swing Trading Strategy: * Bullish Outlook: Accumulate SPY if it closes above $608, targeting $612. * Bearish Outlook: Short positions can be initiated below $604, with targets of $597 or $595. Risk Management: * Maintain a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:3. * Limit exposure to 2% of capital per trade. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own research before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY should go up tomorrow ....I am using the Heikin Ashi Candlesticks as I find you can see a definite directional pattern with them on the chart itself. Typically, you should wait until you see two green candles, but if you look at some of the indicators on the 6 hour chart, you can see that it is indicating a bullish move. The 7 hour and daily indicators should follow soon. (I will post these hourly charts following this idea) After the US election last month, the market shifted a little in the amount of days the SPY went up. In the month of November, the market only went up about 7 days but it did hit an upward move of 32 points and the Fibonacci number. I believe the market was shifting in November to get ready for the US Thanksgiving and Christmas as well as other upcoming events such as the Fed Meeting in December and other events in the January. The SPY will go up until about Nov 25th before moving sideways for a few days while US Thanksgiving is nearing. After US Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the market will continue to go up until Dec. 9 to 11th which is about a 12 to 14 day move using the green Heikin Ashi candlesticks. This was the typical length of time of the move of the previous months with the exception of November. In the last few months, I have observed that the up trend goes up between 12 to 14 days. So I will be out by Dec 10th. If the market hits the 1.619 Fibonacci, which is about 609, I am out. The SPY has been usually moving about 32 points per month on average. If it hits a 32 point upward move (616), I will be out. (but it will hit the 1.619 Fibonacci line before it hits the 32 point move) I believe the SPY will go up for the month of December and January before going down in February. I have been noticing that the market goes up for about 3 months before having a more of a downward trend in the fourth month. The market should technically go down after the middle of January and for approximately a month. During that time, the market may shift a little in time. (I am looking forward to that month to learn more.) If you look at the indicators on the 6 hour charts, specifically the DMI, Stochastic RSI, and the MacD, you can see that they are starting to shift to indicate a bullish move. Typically, I used the half hour, the hourly and the four-hour chart indicators to confirm that this is indeed a bullish move. I need all those indicators to align to confirm a trend. I only trade with the strength of the trend not the retractions. And typically (not always) I wait for at least 2 green Heikin Ashi candles to confirm trend before I enter. These are my rules that I follow. As I have said in my previous charts, I find the 5 minute indicators show what will happen in the next half hour, the 10 minute indicators show what will happen in the next hour, the half hour indicators show what will happen in the daily charts and the hour indicators will show what will happen over the next few days. (My opinion, not fact) I trade simple ... if I can't see the trade in a few simple steps, then this is not the trade for me. Also, I explain my trades in more detail for me, not for you. Repetition is the key for me. If I repeat it over enough in my head, it will more likely stick. Happy Trading everyone!!! :-) And here's to making oodles of money or at least learning something if you don't.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Princessgirl
5
SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612. Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540. If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level. The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels. I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025! Thank you for your attention.
AMEX:SPYShort
by artemfedorov
$SPY December 10, 2024AMEX:SPY December 10, 2024 15 Minutes. 605 as expected was done. Downtrend confirmed as long AMEX:SPY is below 607 levels. 607 is 200 averages in 5 minutes and 61.8% retracement for the fall 609.07 to 604.08 This 606-607 is a level to short. For the rise 597.28 to 609.07 61.8% retracement is 601-602 levels. Soif 604 is broken today 599-600 is my target for today. In daytime frame AMEX:SPY took support at 9 averages. 21 average is 598 levels. For me usually downtrend in 15 minutes until 200 averages price is above current price in 5 minutes. We have an oscillator divergence at close. price made LL but oscillator did not support. So, i expect a pull back at open.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RiderTrader
16
Spy 620 EOYHello Traders... Been awhile.. Figured time for an idea.. I see us hitting around 620 EOY... For now we might get a little dip this week before we head up there the last two weeks of the year. I see something happening around February 1 then something again around March/April. I have a feeling SPY/SPX wants to tag 666/6666 since 2008 bottom was 666 .. Will we head straight there as shown with trendlines around April 2025? Or will we have a pullback at end of January... then head back up that way into the summer. I see us peaking around of Summer 2025. Then maybe have weaker/selloffs into 2026.. My thinking as of now.. see how things go. Feb 1 is ? .. Some think it will peak around then.. It's possible..But I'm leaning towards maybe a pullback at most... and at least...nothing much..and we continue to April then get the bigger pullback. But I also see another wave summer 2025.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TheUniverse618
SPY Analysis (1-Hour Timeframe) Dec. 9, 2024Current Market Structure * SPY is moving within an ascending channel, with higher highs and higher lows. * The price is currently consolidating just below the key resistance level of $609.07, indicating indecision. * The MACD indicator is flat, with a potential crossover, suggesting a possible breakout or breakdown in the near term. Key Levels to Watch 1. Resistance: * $609.07: The recent swing high. * $610.50: Psychological and technical resistance above. 2. Support: * $607.00: Near-term support at the ascending trendline. * $605.72: Strong horizontal support, aligning with the base of the channel. Technical Indicators * 9 EMA: The price is hovering near the EMA, suggesting indecision. A close above this could trigger bullish momentum. * MACD: Neutral, but any crossover above the signal line would support a bullish breakout. * Volume: Volume remains low during the consolidation phase, so watch for a spike to confirm any breakout. Price Action Scenarios 1. Bullish Scenario: * If SPY breaks above $609.07 with strong volume, the next targets are $610.50 and $612.00. * Entry: Buy at the break of $609.50. * Stop Loss: $607.00. * Take Profit: Scale out at $610.50 and $612.00. 2. Bearish Scenario: * If SPY breaks below $605.72, the next targets are $604.00 and $602.50. * Entry: Sell at the break of $605.50. * Stop Loss: $607.50. * Take Profit: Scale out at $604.00 and $602.50. Trading Plan 1. Scalping: * Focus on breakouts above resistance or below support with tight stop losses. * Monitor volume and MACD for confirmation of momentum. 2. Swing Trading: * Buy on retests of $607.00 if the price confirms the support level. * Short if the price breaks and retests $605.72. Thoughts * The current consolidation suggests a potential breakout is imminent. Pay close attention to volume and how SPY reacts to $609.07 and $605.72. * With MACD neutral, confirmation through price action and volume is essential before entering trades.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2
Bullish Momentum Ahead: SPY's Path for Next WeekRecent Performance: SPY has experienced a strong bullish trend, trading above major moving averages and recently hitting all-time highs. This reflects buoyant market sentiment supported by robust performances in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, signaling a rally that is capturing investors’ attention. - Key Insights: Traders should focus on critical support and resistance levels. The lower support at $606 offers a buffer for potential pullbacks, while resistance around $609 is pivotal for driving further gains. Monitoring these dynamic levels could provide actionable insights for upcoming trades. - Expert Analysis: Market experts generally maintain a bullish stance for SPY, with potential for upward momentum. However, caution is advised as SPY approaches key resistance levels, which could trigger a reversal or continuation depending on market conditions. The volatility anticipated next week, particularly affecting tech stocks, highlights the need for vigilance. - Price Targets: Based on professional traders' insights, expected targets for next week include: - T1: $611 - T2: $614 - Stop Levels: - S1: $606 - S2: $604 - News Impact: The market is closely following the potential for SPY to form a multi-year ascending channel, with upcoming inflation and interest rate dynamics likely to have a considerable effect. Analysts emphasize that these factors could create turbulence in market performance, thereby impacting investor sentiment and SPY's price trajectory in the days ahead.
AMEX:SPYLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
$SPY December9, 2024AMEX:SPY December9, 2024 15 Minutes. As can be seen in chart AMEX:SPY struggling around 608 609 levels. The retracement i was expecting due to oscillator did not happen but it resulted in sideways movement. For the rise 597.28 to 609.07 604.5 is approximately 38.2% retracement. Also for the fall 609.07 to 607.07 to 608.38 605 is 1.618 times extension on reversals. At the moment AMEX:SPY is converged in 3 moving averages 9,21,50. We have 100 averages sat 606 levels. That is my first target for the moment. Day is still strong, and I have 635-640 as target. We have 606 as 9 averages in day so that should give good support on a reversal.
AMEX:SPYShort
by RiderTrader
2
SPY Covered Call To-DateI originally entered an SPY Covered Call to experience chasing an ITM call higher in SPY. Originally buying SPY at $521.59 and selling 500 call was for max protection against any near term drops. The original Max gain of $2.85/share translated into 0.18% gain per week against the $497.15 cash capital required to take the trade. Currently, with two dividends distributed, the trade is surprisingly still a 0.17% per week max gain trade, which translates to 8.86% per year. SPY would fall almost 12% by 2/28/25 and I still make max gain of .17% per week. And a 17% fall in SPY would be required to wipe out all gains for this trade.
AMEX:SPY
by oldinvestor