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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 1-21-25 : Cycle Top FormationThis video highlights my cycle research and why I believe the US markets are very close to a market top right now. My research suggests the US markets would rally into the Inauguration and reach a peak near Jan 20-22. I believe the markets are very close to a market top right now, and there is limited opportunity to the upside currently. I believe there is a bigger opportunity for a pullback in the SPY target 578 to 585 (roughly), where I believe the SPY will find support. Gold & Silver should continue to price in additional risks and rally over the next 3+ weeks. I believe Gold will target $2880, then stall a bit before rallying up above $3000. Silver should target $33.50 to $34.25 at the same time. Bitcoin continues to be range-bound. At this time, I believe the most logical outcome for BTCUSD is a breakdown attempt until the US settles on deregulation policies. Let's see how this plays out over the next few days/weeks. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
$SPY Today & Tomorrow's Trading RangesWe are above the 50 day moving average the one hour to under moving average and 35 EMA on the 30 minute timeframe and then we have that up gap from last Friday all on the downside of the trading range. At 603 at the top of the implied move today we do have a resistance level, and it was a support in December before we broke down and then it turned into a resistance. We have an island gap underneath the 30 minute tun removing average above the four hour to removing average and just remember they always do fill. It doesn’t have to be this week but it definitely could be so if you’re bar that might be a good place to look to take profits if we do go down. I will dive much more deeply into these levels on tonight's video, but for now we at least have them. Things to Watch this Week: Earnings Reports: Major companies like Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG), United Airlines (UAL), General Electric (GE), Alaska Air (ALK), American Airlines (AAL), CSX Corporation (CSX), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and American Express (AXP) are set to release their earnings. These reports can significantly influence market sentiment and stock prices. Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing will provide insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. This data can influence expectations about economic growth and interest rates. Services PMI: Similarly, the Services PMI will give an overview of the service sector's performance. Given the service sector's substantial contribution to the economy, this data is critical for understanding overall economic trends. Home Sales: Data on existing home sales can shed light on consumer confidence and spending in the housing market, which is a major component of economic activity. Changes in home sales can signal shifts in economic health. Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims numbers are a pulse check on the labor market. Rising claims might indicate economic slowdown, while falling claims suggest job growth and economic strength. Market Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been noted to be fluctuating, which might continue this week. Monitoring the VIX can help assess market fear or complacency. Interest Rate Sensitivity: With the Federal Reserve’s actions on interest rates being a focal point, any indication of future policy direction from Fed officials' speeches or economic data releases could sway markets. Look for comments from Fed members or economic reports that might hint at rate adjustments. Sector Performance: Particularly, keep an eye on sectors like Technology (with companies like Nvidia potentially leading AI trends), Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary, which have shown movements or are expected to with upcoming earnings. Global Economic Indicators: International developments, especially from major economies like China or the Eurozone, can impact U.S. markets due to globalization. Look for news on global manufacturing, services, or policy changes that could affect investor sentiment. Geopolitical Events: Although not directly mentioned in recent market summaries, geopolitical tensions or developments, like trade negotiations or conflicts, can influence markets. Keep an ear out for any significant international news that might ripple through financial markets.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-21 : GAP Breakaway PatternAfter a long weekend, Trump's Inauguration, dozens of Presidential EOs being signed, and the markets searching for direction while nearing my cycle top/peak date (1-20) - I suspect the markets will move into a moderate sideways/topping type of price action over the next 3-4+ days. It makes sense to me, after watching BTCUSD attempt to rally above the $108k level and fail, that we are moving into a post-Inauguration "reality" phase for the markets. Yes, the US markets and economy are still clicking right along. We've seen an incredible rally from the 2022 lows, and I believe the markets may stall into a sideways (megaphone) type of pattern in early 2025. If my research is correct, the process of stabilizing the US economy around Trump's policies and plans will take about 3-4+ months to actually materialize. Yet, at the same time, the US economy is clicking along quite well, and I expect Q1 & Q2 2025 to be well within expectations - unless something massive breaks. So, we are moving into my TOPPING pattern area right now. I strongly suggest traders prepare for a moderate pullback in price starting possibly near 1-23 to 1-24. Until then, I believe the markets will be "seeking a top" - that means trying to rally into resistance. BTCUSD has already reached a peak and is moving into a new EPP pattern. Gold and Silver should attempt to hedge risks and that means metals should attempt to break away from the current FLAGGING formation. Things are about to get very interesting. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY Approaches Key Resistance! Will the Bulls Prevail?Technical Analysis for Trading: 1. Current Market Structure: * SPY is forming a potential descending wedge pattern, which can indicate bullish breakout opportunities if it breaches the upper resistance trendline. * Immediate support is at $590, with resistance near $600, where selling pressure might intensify. 2. Indicators: * MACD: Trending positively but showing signs of weakening momentum as the histogram flattens. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought territory (~70-80), indicating a possible short-term pullback or consolidation. 3. Key Levels: * Resistance: $600 (psychological level), $605 (previous swing high). * Support: $590 (HVL from gamma exposure), $586 (next PUT wall). 4. Scenarios: * Bullish: A break above $600 could drive SPY toward $605-$610. * Bearish: Failure to hold $590 may see SPY retesting $586-$580. GEX Analysis for Option Trading: 1. Gamma Exposure Highlights: * Positive Gamma Resistance: * $600: Highest positive NETGEX, indicating strong call-wall resistance. * Put Walls: * $586: Secondary PUT support. * $584: Key PUT wall, significant downside risk if breached. 2. Option Strategy: * Bullish Setup: Buy $600 Call expiring 1/26, targeting a breakout above $600 with limited risk. * Bearish Setup: Buy $585 Put expiring 1/26 if SPY breaks $590, aiming for a move to $586. 3. IV Insights: * Current IV Rank: 16 (low), making long options relatively affordable. Summary: * SPY faces a pivotal moment at $600. A breakout could see higher targets, while failure could test lower supports. Options strategies should align with directional bias based on intraday price action. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade responsibly and manage risk.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
3
SpyUpside target this week is 602.50 - 603.00 Spy Over 599 and 603 comes .I think there will be push back around 602.. pullback targets at 602 is 599 and below that 595. Max downside is 590 (20sma) below 590 and this was a dead cat . 10year gapped below 20sma Friday. Looks like it wants a pullback to support and 50sma.. I'll be watching 10yr at 50sma . If it bounces then market will flush and this channel will play out Looking at Dow Jones and NYA Both closed right at 50sma and top of Bollingerbands. If they gap up tomorrow price will be outside Bbands and will punish late bulls .. look for a retest of 50sma which should coincide a spy pullback at 602 Qqq Over 524 and 527 is next up .. over 527 and 531comes For the record, I'm still not in the "new ATH camp"... The logic is this FEDs aren't cutting but a cool CPI will give some fuel for a bounce but what happens to the bounce when Jan 29th comes and Powell comes in Hawkish? So that means the market has 9 days to make whatever upside move it will make but without pressure from yields the market will move on earnings and president Trump's decisions
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
12
1/20 Weekly Watchlist + NotesWeekly Watchlist and Market Analysis Using #TheStrat Indexes - SPY went failed 2D week following the previous week going 3 and we nearly went 3 on this last week, but came up short with little room to go to previous week highs. This week we look to go 3-2-2U to confirm the month being failed 2D that has now retraced more than 50% of the previous months range, meaning we are now closer to taking out previous month highs than we are to reclaiming previous month lows. With full timeframe continuity green, we know that buyers are full in control at the moment, and this upcoming week looks to confirm that further as we look to target previous weekly highs on our way up to ATH levels. No daily actionable signal and a couple daily gaps to the downside, so we will see what happens Tuesday pre market whether we gap down to give last weeks buyers some corrective activity, whether we gap up, clear weekly magnitude (at the high of the weekly 3 from the week prior to this last week) before seeing if we expand further to confirm the month attempting to go 3 or begin reversing back through last weeks range. Finally, we may just open flat and see where intraday signals and continuity take us. (Slightly pressed for time at the time of writing so I apologize for the lack of detail like my normal posts) Watchlist: Bullish: NVDA - 2-1-2U Daily, 2-2 Weekly. Daily BF looks interesting PLTR - 3-2-2U Weekly. High rVOL WMT - Hammer 2-2 Week, MoMo Hammer Daily. Inside green Month which isn't great this late in the month, but not bad enough to ruin this setup for me DLTR - Hammer 3-2-2U weekly after month went 3. Looking to go back through the months range now. Note: DG full FTFC red so no sector support IONQ - 3-1 Week at M Exhaustion. MASSIVE range on this one. Nearly 30% underlying move from weekly trigger to magnitude HIMS - Hammer failed 2D, Weekly 3-1, Failed 2D month attempting to go 3 Bearish: DOCU - Weekly 3-2-2 Shooter. Daily Big red 3 following double inside day so potential 3-2D daily to trigger shooter week down. Filling in massive gap from the last earnings report Neutral: DAL + UAL: Both have inside weeks. DAL at exhaustion risk. UAL bright green. Relative strength in the airline industry
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
Vol expansion signaling the top is near, but $HYG disagreesThrough my previous "big picture" posts about VIX/VVIX and VIX as well as high yield corporate bonds ( AMEX:HYG or AMEX:JNK respectively) I have been maintaining we're in that end stage of a bull market, but for now to "keep buying the dip." Things are getting a little shakier lately, but I still feel like new highs can be made based solely on how AMEX:HYG is still behaving. We have higher lows and lower highs starting on VIX, which is usually a good indicator we're near the cycle top. AMEX:HYG is not far off setting a new high from this cycle, though. Highest it's been since the big sell off started in 2022. AMEX:HYG never recovered its 2021 levels. So, solely based on past performance of how AMEX:HYG often sets lower highs preceding a longer term bear market in equities, I'm going to stick my neck out and say despite the economic data supporting slowing and VIX starting to set alarm bells in its pattern, we're not quite yet to the top. Equities kind of have the appearance of having done a double top and might continue down according to how some interpret candlestick patterns, but the unusual strength of AMEX:HYG gives me pause and say "maybe buy the dip isn't dead just yet." Make no mistake, though, we are certainly much closer to a market cycle top than we are the bottom. And tech has been getting battered pretty solidly. I just think the price action of the main indices themselves may yet set new highs before we do finally enter a longer term bear market. It absolutely is time to be on your toes. Things are shifting underneath us. But my bold prediction is that buy the dip for AMEX:SPY SP:SPX isn't dead just yet. Bulls may have another rally or two left in them to hit another all time high before bears totally take over. I do think some larger players have already begun shifting out of equities and into treasuries, once that settles down a little, we'll see stocks make maybe one or two more big pushes, take a look at what AMEX:HYG is doing during that time and go from there. With that said, I have no prediction for how far and deep the current dip will go. September has a history of being one of the uglier months of the year. I had thought that yesterday might be the low of the current dip with AMEX:HYG showing two decent days of bullish divergence, but then we got smacked lower still today after a rebound from yesterday's lows. The market has a way of humbling you for sure! But if you're just long term long $SPY/ SP:SPX , I say stay there for now. I think we might have some more highs to set yet--but not many more before a big drawdown does happen.
AMEX:SPYLong
by dieseldub
SPY Will Collapse! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 597.55 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 588.41 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
SPY What Next? BUY! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for SPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 580.51 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 591.67 My Stop Loss - 576.09 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
3
Spy Road To $615Well My Fellow Traders How Are you Doing And I hope You All Went Long With Me!!! Lets Continue To Go Long For Our Target of $615 and if you guys ever want to trade like me you can use some of my personal Indicators On TradingView To help you Maximize your swing trade postions,, which the indicators are out now on TradingView message me if your intrested! Also I will Update Once We near or hit $615 To Conclude if the bull market is over and we are going for a blow up top or we just continue higher this year.. As Always Good Luck Traders
AMEX:SPYLong
by JoeWtrades
11
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-17-25 : Gap Up Higher PatternToday's pattern is a Gap Up Higher in Counter Trend mode. I believe this pattern would have resulted in a Gap Down Lower price trend related to the counter-trend setup. But it looks like the foreign markets drove the SPY/QQQ higher. The obvious disruption to the SPY Cycle Patterns recently has come from the post-election concerns and the expectations of a broader credit/debt market crisis (which seems to be subsiding). I believe we have to get past the Inauguration before we'll be able to see if the markets attempt to establish any defined price trend or continue to trade in a sideways price mode. Gold and Silver are struggling to muscle higher - which I believe is the likely outcome for metals. BTCUSD has moved back above $100k - but may struggle above the downward-sloping price channel. Overall, at this point, I would suggest traders pull profits on any trades they have open as we move into the new Trump Administration and a slew of new EOs and new policies that may disrupt the markets. We are very likely going to see some new price volatility over the next 30+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
Market Outlook for 2025: SPY Price TargetsMarket Outlook for 2025: SPY Price Targets As we navigate through 2025, investors and traders are closely monitoring the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for signs of where the market might head. Here’s a detailed monthly breakdown of expected price movements: January: Downside Target: $574.15 Upside Target: $593.15 Outlook: The new year begins with a cautious note, with a narrow trading range expected. The market might see early profit-taking or a response to late-year 2024 policy news. February: Downside Target: $563.75 Upside Target: $589.13 Outlook: February might continue the cautious trend from January, with potential for a slight recovery if early-year economic indicators are positive. March: Downside Target: $561.78 Upside Target: $601.45 Outlook: Spring might bring some optimism, with the upside target suggesting a possible rally, perhaps due to seasonal adjustments in investment strategies. April: Downside Target: $538.23 Upside Target: $567.03 Outlook: This month could see a dip, reflecting concerns over quarterly earnings or macroeconomic data. However, the upside potential indicates a possible quick recovery or stabilization. May: Downside Target: $549.27 Upside Target: $592.61 Outlook: Traditionally, May can be volatile, but the significant upside target suggests optimism, possibly fueled by positive corporate guidance or sector performance. June: Downside Target: $572.31 Upside Target: $614.92 Outlook: Summer starts with promise, with a wide range between targets, indicating potential for significant market movements based on mid-year reviews or policy changes. July: Upside Target: $618.20 Downside Target: $597.21 Outlook: July might see continued growth from June, with the upside target slightly higher, suggesting sustained investor confidence. August: Upside Target: $623.45 Downside Target: $593.93 Outlook: The summer could end on a high note, but with a notable downside risk, reflecting market reactions to economic reports or geopolitical events. September: Downside Target: $598.52 Upside Target: $615.57 Outlook: Historically, September is a turbulent month for markets. The narrow range suggests cautious trading with a slight bias towards an upward trend. October: Upside Target: $629.96 Downside Target: $597.17 Outlook: October might see a recovery or continuation of September's trends, with a significant upside potential if the market absorbs positive economic news. November: Upside: $631.56 Downside Target: $618.20 Outlook: Late-year optimism could drive prices up, with the downside target still above previous months' peaks, indicating a bullish sentiment. December: Upside Target: $645.83 Downside Target: $632.32 Outlook: The year might end on a high, with both targets suggesting a market that's resilient or buoyed by end-of-year adjustments and holiday spending. Conclusion: This outlook for 2025 suggests a year of volatility with significant potential for both gains and corrections. Investors should remain vigilant, adapting to both the micro and macroeconomic environments, and be ready to capitalize on or hedge against these projected movements in SPY. Remember, these targets are speculative and should be used in conjunction with broader market analysis and individual investment goals.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Dhandhoche
1
SPY at a Pivotal Level! Key Trade Setups Before Next Week's EvenSPY is trading within a descending wedge, testing the $591-$592 resistance zone. The chart shows mixed signals, with the MACD trending slightly bearish and the Stochastic RSI approaching overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term weakness. Volume has been steady, but the upcoming Presidential inauguration next week may bring increased volatility. The $593-$595 range aligns with significant call resistance, while $590-$588 remains critical support, as indicated by gamma exposure (GEX) and options positioning. These levels are likely to guide SPY's movement heading into the politically significant week. Key Levels to Watch: * Resistance Levels: * $593-$594: Immediate resistance, aligning with strong GEX call walls. * $595-$598: Extended resistance zone with significant gamma exposure. * Support Levels: * $591: Near-term support level. * $590-$588: Strong support zone with the highest negative GEX and put positioning. * $576: Extended downside support. GEX Insights: * Gamma Exposure (GEX): * Positive GEX at $593-$595 acts as a ceiling, limiting upward momentum. * Negative GEX at $590-$588 provides strong support, but a break could trigger accelerated selling. * Options Activity: * IVR: Low at 16.3, indicating reduced implied volatility. * Put/Call Ratio: Elevated at 40.3%, reflecting bearish sentiment among options traders. Trade Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Break above $593 with volume confirmation. * Target: $595 (first target), $598 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Below $591. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: Break below $590 with increased selling pressure. * Target: $588 (first target), $576 (extended target). * Stop-Loss: Above $593. Directional Bias: The bias leans bearish for the short term, with SPY likely to test lower levels before the inauguration. Political uncertainty and potential market volatility may keep SPY range-bound between $588 and $595 this week. Heading into the next week, a decisive break of the $595 resistance could signal bullish momentum, while a breach of $588 support may lead to a sharper selloff as traders react to political developments and policy announcements. Actionable Suggestions: * For Scalpers: Focus on trading the $590-$593 range, aligning with GEX levels and intraday trends. * For Swing Traders: Position for a potential breakout or breakdown from $588-$595 next week, depending on the political backdrop and market reaction. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights