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TLT trade ideas

Is TLT a buy or a sell here?In 18 years RSI and OBV have not been this low. RSI around 35 and OBV negative 5 billion. That's 4 times lower than the normal lowest figure. Something happened after January 2022. A war started. A capital war? After the peak in January 2020 it's been all downhill since then. Will RSI and OBV find support here? Where is the bottom? Does the 40 year bull market in bonds end with a whimper or does it go out with a bang? Are there some things that people should not worry about? Can you have yeilds going up like they have and at the same time a fiscal deficit that seems to be out of control? If the world's safest asset isn't safe what is? If bonds are this volatile can they fulfill their purpose? If one person's debt is another person's asset shouldn't it adhere to the principles laid out by Aristotle 2000 years ago? Who wants an asset when it's value cannot be guaranteed? Don't worry be happy! Avoid TLT until these indicators start to reverse and at least show some signs of improvement. Maybe the US election result will give us the required direction. Until then I remain unconvinced.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by kylesutherlandsmith45
1
BEAR STEEPENER - Where's "Tin Cup" is that you Mr J. Powell?Fed wont (can't) cut rates as we go into a recession as has been the case for a very long time (since 1974 - Volker). This is one of those cases where past performance does not equal future results and you who drives a car by looking in the rear view mirror anyway unless your backing up. Unless you have a time machine, one must look forward and ween themselves off of technical overreliance. What's different you might ask? Unless you spent all of your time just drawing lines on charts, you should know that the USA is over its capacity for sustaining its hegemony and budget as a going concern (www.cbo.gov). Just the interest expense alone, at more than a trillion, speaks for itself (See chapter one of cbo link above Net interest status que projection). This is where historically empires lose their hegemony and Fed is desperate to break the human habit of self destruction while a irrefutably and factually corrupt US democrat controlled Government seem hell-bent on forcing fiscal policy spend for what is apparently their own interests in concert with China and Japan forcing the Fed to "pause" or otherwise have to "quantitatively tighten" (Seell bonds from thier balance sheet effectively draining the system of liquidity) to an order of magnitude placing the system in a more precarious state as R-STAR (Natural rate of interest) is unmeasurable since markets are not free to govern themselves for so long (40 years) price discovery is akin to "shooting in the dark" (One cannot measure with out a point of reference), they can only estimate and an overshoot is an even bigger risk than not doing anything at all (it takes a 100% return to break even from a 50% loss, thus a quantum's amplitude is quadratic and without an absolute value consensus for R-STAR, a small difference in Feds measure could mean a huge difference in outcome probability. In other words, put on a blind fold and walk through a mine field slowly throwing rocks or using mine detector or some form of mitigation while holding an alarm clock in your hand that when it goes off will detonate all mines (systemic implosion "systemic risk"). That is what the Fed is up against while facing internal and external challenges (Democrat's, China, Japan YCC (yield curve control policy change due to new governor and political regime ,basically Japan Democrats), thus the "pause." It's hard enough to shoot in the dark when you have head winds blowing from different directions metaphorically speaking. Or, a golfer facing windy conditions, especially headwinds,, is to swing normal or even slightly slower speed. This is the only measure the Fed can do while up against the national debt clock. The greater the Debt the more time dilates the greater the potential for error. Bottom line Fed has to force a recession as stated in their base case scenario. www.federalreserve.gov and www.federalreserve.gov The Fed secretly hopes for a "black Swan" event to do the work for them and this is a good bet because never has there been so many tail risks stacked up where the bell curve is the tail risks!!!! Geopolitical being the greatest likely potential. Buckle up kiddos its going to get UGLY!!!!! Back to the Golf analogy, where is "Tin Cup" when you need him? lol www.youtube.com
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by CurrencyCapital
1
Treasuries on track to crash Sept-Dec 2023Reminds me of the Final Destination movies - the unsuspecting characters live their peaceful lives, while the invisible hairy hand of the market is meticulously preparing every instrument for a kill. Treasury yields are scheduled for a big bang this fall, but it will not end in 2023. I think yields will continue to rise into Jan and Feb. SPX will keep falling all that time. We may see markets bounce a little in the spring 2024. The transition from "low yields forever", to TNX above 10%, will cause an unimaginable amount of pain across the globe.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by AndyM
8
$TLT Long or short?Last week, the bond markets were a bit volatile, and the US10Y broke below the support ~98. Fitch Downgrade, JP govt selling US treasuries were other catalysts. The US CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 3.2% (est 3.3%; prev 3.0%) also showed inflation easing ... So, what do you expect? Case (a) false breakdown, and bonds rallying in the coming months? or (b) inflation surprises on the upside for the later half of 2023 would further add to the bond market selling and hence higher yields?
NASDAQ:TLT
by Sujay_fi
Yields Prepped to Spike Higher after a Confirmed TLT BreakdownThe TLT has broken down an Ascending Broadening Wedge and given us one Bearish Confirmation back test; now we are looking for a second lower high within the range of the breakdown to truly get convicted on the move. However, for the time being, I do think this chart should be watched, as I have a suspicion that a lot of the shorter- and midterm bond yields are going to spike higher along with the US Dollar for reasons I already explained in this post here:
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by RizeSenpai
2
TLT | Watch this one RIP Higher | LONGiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the "underlying index"). The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that the advisor believes will help the fund track the underlying index. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by DivergenceSeeker
TLT: Double Bottom, Buy LEAPS! Following our successful S&P 500 Index trade from last February, it is time to consider the next major trade of opportunity: TLT. This trade consists of buying January 2025 TLT LEAPS (long-term call options) currently trading for $8.50. That means TLT has to hit $108.50 before January 2025 for you to break even. The Fed forecasts that the Fed Funds rate will be nearly 1% lower by the end of 2024. Some forecasters, however, predicts even lower rates. www.morningstar.com Politics: With Biden running for reelection (likely vs Trump), political pressures may mount to prop up the economy, although that is beyond the scope of this analysis. Nearing End of Hiking Cycle : In any case, we can confirm based on the Fed's own statements that its hiking cycle is nearly up. In the past two hiking cycles, TLT has surged significantly following the end of the Fed's hiking cycles, within 18 months of the end of each cycle. If the past two hiking cycles, are any guide TLT could reach levels of 140 or higher. Notably, the end of the 2018 hiking cycle led to a surge in TLT without a recession. Venus Retrograde: for whatever reason, Venus Retrogrades every 18 months have recently corresponded with major changes in direction for TLT. The current massive selloff began in early 2022, and as of July 25, Venus is again in Retrograde until the first week of September. Thus, TLT is likely to once again reverse. Technical Analysis : At 97, the risk/reward ratio of January 2025 LEAP Calls at 100 are a strong trade. TLT has made an apparent double bottom in an upward sloping linear regression channel going back to last October. I'm going to buy some January 2025 TLT calls at a 100 strike and hopefully watch them rip by up to 10x over the next 18 months. Crypto doesn't give us 10x runs anymore, so we have to get creative.
NASDAQ:TLT
by David_Warren_Ellison
3
TLT ratio compared to Tech (QQQ)Lots of news this week, wow. Besides fundamentals and what everyone thinks, we might have a trade setting up that is very... unusual? The narrative has switched very quickly from bull market to fear. Interest rates are surprising everyone (not me, I've been long rates and short indexes this week) ; although, ratios are lining up for a favorable r/r in TLT. TLT has long been a safe haven trade, if we get a safe haven type event here soon, owning spreads on these with 2-3% upside in the coming weeks is paying off multiple 100s of %. Taking a stab here, have spreads exp next week friday. I've closed some of my short spreads on QQQ's and DOW, this is a small insurance play to protect the other half of the trades and to give myself exposure to potential upside. Ratio to tech and indexes right now show bullish signs, but no confirmation yet. You've all seen the chart overlay of stocks compared to bonds, this could be an event that triggers a short term price reversal, even though the news may not present itself as an event for bonds.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BrokeCollegeStudent
TLT Short term Treasuries Bullish LONGTLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little transactions occurring confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed. The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents the end of the red downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think TLT traders overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe this to be a good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 100.5 just below the mean anchored VWAP and 101.5 just below POCl line volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile for a relatively low risk. However, I intend to trade this intraday as a same day expiration (0DTE) option striking 101. I will set a set a stop-loss on the option of 15% while expecting potentially 50-200% ROI making for an acceptable ratio.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani