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TLT trade ideas

TLT: waiting a long time. Is it time to buy?One more Fed hike this year and after that bond market will hopefully settle down. When rate cuts start to happen, stock market will most like take a nosedive and a better home for the capital will he right here at TLT. In between now and then I am planning to start accumulating little bit at time bottom fishing some lows, but not too much. TLT is dangerously close to getting bottom fall off. Below about $80.5, it may tank another 30%. So little bit here and there is the way to go right now with options hedge. Fed might keep hiking to infinity destroying US economy and bonds along the way. TLT will not be a good place in that case... Technical areas: right now will look for a bounce to $ 95- $97. Above $99 there is a good change that the low is in. Otherwise will look for one more lower low to between $87 - $85 area. That is when I will put some more capital in. Below $80 it is game over, sell all, wait and see.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by mukit1
2
Opening (IRA): TLT October 27th 91 Short Put... for a .96 credit. Comments: Adding on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the contract nearest 45 days duration. This is more aggressive than I usually do, since it's at the 30 delta, but I'm looking to pick up shares at or around these lows if at all possible. Because of this, I'll look to run these right up until expiry and/or take them off for "approaching worthless"; I immediately stuck an order in to close it if it gets to .05. If I get assigned, I'll look to cover with short call.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Is TLT a buy or a sell here?In 18 years RSI and OBV have not been this low. RSI around 35 and OBV negative 5 billion. That's 4 times lower than the normal lowest figure. Something happened after January 2022. A war started. A capital war? After the peak in January 2020 it's been all downhill since then. Will RSI and OBV find support here? Where is the bottom? Does the 40 year bull market in bonds end with a whimper or does it go out with a bang? Are there some things that people should not worry about? Can you have yeilds going up like they have and at the same time a fiscal deficit that seems to be out of control? If the world's safest asset isn't safe what is? If bonds are this volatile can they fulfill their purpose? If one person's debt is another person's asset shouldn't it adhere to the principles laid out by Aristotle 2000 years ago? Who wants an asset when it's value cannot be guaranteed? Don't worry be happy! Avoid TLT until these indicators start to reverse and at least show some signs of improvement. Maybe the US election result will give us the required direction. Until then I remain unconvinced.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by kylesutherlandsmith45
1
BEAR STEEPENER - Where's "Tin Cup" is that you Mr J. Powell?Fed wont (can't) cut rates as we go into a recession as has been the case for a very long time (since 1974 - Volker). This is one of those cases where past performance does not equal future results and you who drives a car by looking in the rear view mirror anyway unless your backing up. Unless you have a time machine, one must look forward and ween themselves off of technical overreliance. What's different you might ask? Unless you spent all of your time just drawing lines on charts, you should know that the USA is over its capacity for sustaining its hegemony and budget as a going concern (www.cbo.gov). Just the interest expense alone, at more than a trillion, speaks for itself (See chapter one of cbo link above Net interest status que projection). This is where historically empires lose their hegemony and Fed is desperate to break the human habit of self destruction while a irrefutably and factually corrupt US democrat controlled Government seem hell-bent on forcing fiscal policy spend for what is apparently their own interests in concert with China and Japan forcing the Fed to "pause" or otherwise have to "quantitatively tighten" (Seell bonds from thier balance sheet effectively draining the system of liquidity) to an order of magnitude placing the system in a more precarious state as R-STAR (Natural rate of interest) is unmeasurable since markets are not free to govern themselves for so long (40 years) price discovery is akin to "shooting in the dark" (One cannot measure with out a point of reference), they can only estimate and an overshoot is an even bigger risk than not doing anything at all (it takes a 100% return to break even from a 50% loss, thus a quantum's amplitude is quadratic and without an absolute value consensus for R-STAR, a small difference in Feds measure could mean a huge difference in outcome probability. In other words, put on a blind fold and walk through a mine field slowly throwing rocks or using mine detector or some form of mitigation while holding an alarm clock in your hand that when it goes off will detonate all mines (systemic implosion "systemic risk"). That is what the Fed is up against while facing internal and external challenges (Democrat's, China, Japan YCC (yield curve control policy change due to new governor and political regime ,basically Japan Democrats), thus the "pause." It's hard enough to shoot in the dark when you have head winds blowing from different directions metaphorically speaking. Or, a golfer facing windy conditions, especially headwinds,, is to swing normal or even slightly slower speed. This is the only measure the Fed can do while up against the national debt clock. The greater the Debt the more time dilates the greater the potential for error. Bottom line Fed has to force a recession as stated in their base case scenario. www.federalreserve.gov and www.federalreserve.gov The Fed secretly hopes for a "black Swan" event to do the work for them and this is a good bet because never has there been so many tail risks stacked up where the bell curve is the tail risks!!!! Geopolitical being the greatest likely potential. Buckle up kiddos its going to get UGLY!!!!! Back to the Golf analogy, where is "Tin Cup" when you need him? lol www.youtube.com
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by CurrencyCapital
1
Treasuries on track to crash Sept-Dec 2023Reminds me of the Final Destination movies - the unsuspecting characters live their peaceful lives, while the invisible hairy hand of the market is meticulously preparing every instrument for a kill. Treasury yields are scheduled for a big bang this fall, but it will not end in 2023. I think yields will continue to rise into Jan and Feb. SPX will keep falling all that time. We may see markets bounce a little in the spring 2024. The transition from "low yields forever", to TNX above 10%, will cause an unimaginable amount of pain across the globe.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by AndyM
8
$TLT Long or short?Last week, the bond markets were a bit volatile, and the US10Y broke below the support ~98. Fitch Downgrade, JP govt selling US treasuries were other catalysts. The US CPI (Y/Y) Jul: 3.2% (est 3.3%; prev 3.0%) also showed inflation easing ... So, what do you expect? Case (a) false breakdown, and bonds rallying in the coming months? or (b) inflation surprises on the upside for the later half of 2023 would further add to the bond market selling and hence higher yields?
NASDAQ:TLT
by Sujay_fi
Yields Prepped to Spike Higher after a Confirmed TLT BreakdownThe TLT has broken down an Ascending Broadening Wedge and given us one Bearish Confirmation back test; now we are looking for a second lower high within the range of the breakdown to truly get convicted on the move. However, for the time being, I do think this chart should be watched, as I have a suspicion that a lot of the shorter- and midterm bond yields are going to spike higher along with the US Dollar for reasons I already explained in this post here:
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by RizeSenpai
2