Can 10-Year Notes (TLT) Recover From This Sell-Off?My answer is most likely. Technically we will see 110.96 hold (GREEN) and make a push higher above 111.26 & 111.72.
Fundamentally, it's likely we have peaked in terms of inflation. Many measures suggest that is the case and sentiment is skewed towards being too bearish on Notes/rates. Certainly a contrarian play, but not just for the sake of being contrarian.
TLT trade ideas
TLT bottoms in weekly hammer & divergence;but 108 still possibleTLT may have already bottomed out & the US10Y topped out with weekly hammer candles. TLT may find equilibrium at 132, my inflation pivot zone while US10Y may stabilize at 3.6% inflection point retesting its upchannel.
TLT is now completing its M-pattern & has just entered my bullish BUY ZONE at 114 to 120. DCA Dollar cost averaging up from this point presents a very good risk-to-reward ratio.
MORE DOWNSIDE? TLT may still go down to retest 108 where it bottomed multiple times in the past.
Inflation expectations are slowing & the economy is starting to contract with oil & commodities turning down last week with investors pricing in a coming recession.
Not trading advice.
Takuri Line : reversal sign.Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT :
In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition.
It happens at an extreme low - lowest point in over 120 weeks - which would also be a good environment for the Takuri line to appear. It is statistically a solid reversal candle.
If we gap up tomorrow and finish above 116 in the next three weeks we could be setting a new up trend that leads us to 132 - 133.... (we couled retest 108)
IT IS VERY BULLSIH - I know. I think macro factors favor a more bullish bias...
we'll see.
Good luck.
TLT ReboundFollowing TLT -
I looked at the candlestick formation on the monthly chart and given historicl statistics we apparently have a little bit over 50% chance of a reversal of the downward trend we have experienced so far. If this is the case, we could see $126 over the next 4 weeks based on my calculations.
I would be interested to see if you have the same views.
TLT dangerously close to 2008 supportNASDAQ:TLT not looking to HOT here. The federal reserve has the following 3 options:
1) Stick to 0.50 basis points and continue the slow bleed. ~ This will piss off investors with cash on the sidelines and will most like hit the market harder.
2) Get aggressive and raise 0.75-1 basis point ~ Market may react positively. This would show the federal reserve is "serious" on fighting inflation.
3) Take the foot off the accelerator and step back into the market. Using macro environment as an excuse, for example Russia invasion of Ukraine and China lockdowns.
I think it is noteworthy to mention that China has lowered their interest rates and are outperforming US equities. It honestly looks way more attractive and this is something the fed will have to ponder. This is a lose/lose battle because the federal reserve cannot magically print supply.
pop, pop, fizz, fizz-- no more yield curve inversioni think this is headed for a terminal thrust or wave 5, and abc will correct on some support in the given lower ranges TLT. after seein all time highs, i believe the 10 year will fade if it enters weekly consolidation, and fails some break out level forming a false breakout of upper 90% range. TLT is on watch for bullish divergence macd, stoch, rsi monthly
Long TLT at 116.03www.tradingview.com
At a strong support level, buying TLT with a larger position of 5% here for all of the reasons circled in my chart, as well as the fundamentals that made the technicals possible.
Seeing what happened following the great financial crisis, 2016 and during covid in 2020, we can see a major run up in the TLT. Expecting the same over the medium term.
Also, RSI and MACD levels show support for buying.
Will Superman (Powell) Return" No maybe in 2023Well well well here we are again now that your fake heroes have finally given up on calling inflation transitory which even a a circus monkey to tell you that wasn't going to happen we Can begin with the bloodbath. Well not here necessarily that will begin with the S&P 500 it will make sense soon enough. I will start with my condolences for those retirees with their 60/30 getting hammered both ways for those doing good keep it going baby. The boys at FED just started removing money from the markets this the beginning of more quantitative tightening measures to come. Anyone believing that this can hold if it goes to 130 it's just pure fractional wrongness while we are oversold The FED is no longer buying therefore no reason for this to make a turnaround we have been on a downturn since March 9th 2020 and people would rather risk money on the market than to buy these bonds even if the S&P were to capitulate to 3500 YES I know 600 points that's what happens when markets are flooded with cheap money. My best case scenario is bonds go 5-8% up I have a range of put options with expiration's in August September and some in January 2023. But I'm a cheapskate so I'm waiting for those puts to get a little cheap its in my best interest to do so.
(Remember money is made when people refuse to think that bad things can happen and they WILL This is just the beginning BABY)
Traditional portfolio strategy for retirement... not so hot now!The candles below represent a 60/40 mix of TLT and SPY, bonds and stocks. SPY (orange) and TLT (blue) by comparison show than neither asset class is helping to overcome the bad performance of the other. By comparison, moving money to cash (UUP) looks like it would have been a great short-term move against inflation.
Bear Flag in Bond ETF?Bonds have been in a steady downtrend all year. And now, after a period of consolidation, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF may be set to continue lower.
This main pattern on this chart is the modest rebound over the last three weeks. Given the preceding four months of downside, it could be a classic bearish flag. The current drop also represents a potential break of the flag, which could bring sellers from the sidelines.
Second, notice how the stochastic oscillator recently jumped to its most overbought reading of the year.
Third is the low price of $111.90 from late 2018. Will traders look for that level as support?
Finally, macro conditions may favor downside in TLT. Yesterday brought strong U.S. consumer confidence and higher European inflation. Today featured robust manufacturing data. Non-farm payrolls are due Friday, followed by CPI on June 10 and the Federal Reserve meeting on June 15.
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