TLT - Target Hit !!! 🥳🎈🎈I first called this back in September that TLT would hit $113 (then $114) and now in May my target is hit.
This was another call where I received comments that the chart doesn't matter because XYZ but really the chart does matter as this was just a 1:1 zig zag correction.
So what next?
Well... I dont know currently because a fibonacci projection is just a landmark for a potential reversal. It doesn't itself prove a reversal though there will probably be a lot of short covering in this area.
Also just below @ 111.9 there is a low from 2018 and there will be short covering there also which could potentially be a bottoming area.
However, from a charting perspective this can still go lower. There has been nothing noteworthy for the bullish case as yet.
And I had a charting comment on a previous page that questioned how indicators could be so oversold but not produce a bounce. And well the reason for that is because this could be a new trend unfolding.
It is worth noting though that the RSI here is slightly lower than previous low and there could be a reversal.
But all this depends on what type of wave this is currently. The potential C wave has been much steeper than than the A and that could mean it will form a 1:1.618 which would see it hit $95.
Or if there is a shakeout reversal at the lows here than that may prove to be a good buy signal. I'll wait and see.
Not advice.
TLT trade ideas
TLT MegphoneWe established a lear thesis for Bonds Back in July of 2021.
It is tracking and trading in Trend.
The trend is clear concise and direct.
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3.6 Interemdiate to 6%.
3.265 os the pivot.
Overbought?
Oversold?
No such thing in 40 year Trend reversals.
A complete collapse of the Equity Complex, might drive rates to 2%...
Lovely.
TLT - watch for strong bullish reversal soon after 116 or 114Bearish toward 116 / 114
(Light blue) If TLT bounces strongly at 116 (Fib 1 Elliott zigzag from earlier highs weekly chart) expect it to move toward 128 and pause for a correction.
(Dark blue) If TLT passes through 116 to 114 (Fib 8), expect a strong bounce then climbing up the Fibonacci ladder toward 122 for a corrective move higher.
Waterfall into disaster zoneSurprisingly, I drew most of the lines and boxes in this chart about two years ago and it played out almost to the teeth. Now comes the most important part though as it may waterfall through that disaster zone and and as a result: all asset classes go POP... SWOOSH... SPLASH... or... KLUNK.
But after that, should be able to buy everything at a reasonable price including bonds.
NOTE: The FED may also get bowled over by the waterfall this time. It's meant to be pure water that cleanses out this dirty system.
TLT: Bonds ready for a big bounce?TLT (20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)
Huge drop since January 2022.
If you connect all the big lows since 2013 and draw a line you will notice that TLT is now sitting on a huge support and has starting to bounce off the 119 level (Green line).
RSI weekly and daily oversold.
Let's see if we can get a decent bounce.
I'm long April 29 call. We can target 125, then maybe 130.
Stop loss at 119.
Trade safe
TLT LONGSTLT is staggeringly oversold, everyone and their dog is screaming about higher rates. Understandable, but how much is already priced in? Will the FED reverse course? Will and equity correction send $ back into bonds?
Hard to predict the news, but this chart is a screaming buy to me (on a 2-3 month timeframe). We MAY have one more low to the 116~ area which would be a slam dunk and make a beautiful divergence. I am long May20th and Jun 15th calls at 128/133 strikes.
TLT (Elliot Wave - Analysis) Applying simple Elliot wave analysis, I see an ABC pattern with a failed 5 wave move up marked as X wave, the first ABC is then labeled as W and projected 1:1 ratio from top of (X) brings us down to the box area, where TLT is most likely to find support (1:1 & 1.236 Fib ratio).
I see the price dropping without retest of major resistances that it broke through, and a price fall in a straight line is unsustainable, its like stretching a rubber band and eventually price will rebound violently.
I would give it a 60% probability of reversal at that point and daily bullish divergence should be a very strong sign of imminent reversal.
Cheers
A really good contra play on bonds for the coming month Multiple forms of technical analysis are saying that bonds (TLT) have gotten very oversold, and even though the trend is bearish, a short term bounce in the next 3-4 weeks is extremely likely. Currently it's appearing like a selling climax which could have a sharp reaction in the opposite direction.
STRATEGY: I have sold 120 puts for may 20 expiry as well as bought 127 calls.
Appreciate your feedback !
Bullish Gartley on the TLT Visible On Weekly TimeframeI'v been tacking this Gartley for a while now and eager to post it but opted to wait until it got closer to the PCZ before i posted and now we are pretty much here; This could signal the end of Rising Treasury Yields and the beginning of a Recovery Period within Equities and Securities. I will be taking profit on my Yearly TLT PUTs and buying some Yearly CALLs next week.