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TLT trade ideas

TLT - Extreme Losses Ahead / Bond Market Peak March 2020Yields rising will only serve to further drive - ZN (10 Yr Futures), ZB (10 Yr Futures), and TLT into the Abyss. They have all broken down, with the 10 Yr Yield moving up significantly Friday back towards 1.8. We indicated over the past 7 Month the day of reckoning for Bonds was fast approaching. In November I doubled down with further warnings explaining in great detail the larger Issues for Bonds to reiterate the Intermediate and Long Term Risks. My Thesis for Bonds was they would become "perpetual" Instruments whereby Holders would be able to clip their Coupons but unable to redeem them one day in the not too distant Future. The Debt cannot be serviced, even with cheaper Dollars. We see the effects of all the excesses sloshing around. It will continue to choose valueless propositions outside of Real Estate, Equities, Metals, Commodities, Energy and Meta in the Wings. The Wind cried Mary over and overstating it was lunacy, Bonds would benefit in any serious Selling of Equities. In Sum, I was the fool, idiot, and wrong in the absolute. This has not happened, instead, the conventional analysis, dependent on a Paradigm that no longer exists... it failed and very badly. The Curve is not steepening. This is where the Bond Participants, Touts, and YouTube Tribe - got it 100% wrong. It is quite simple - there are Capital Stocks for rotation, Equities will eventually see inflows as Bonds continue their collapse. TLT will be decimated as will ZN and ZB. As Captial from Bonds flows to Equities once the breakdown finds Bond Buyers exiting the Complex as they realize their mistake(s) - this will serve to drive Equities far Higher for a short period of time. This will be the 5/5 of the Larger 5/5 for the Equities Complex. We will see a parabolic melt-up in Equities once this begins - after this correction completes. It will be the Fuel for the Final move up in the Equity Complex. The Federal Reserve will, at some point, go too far, make a large Policy mistake and then Equities will collapse. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ It takes time to turn a Battleship. Bonds have turned from the Historic End of their Supreme reign for decades. Price may range for a short period of time, but make no mistake, Bonds have entirely lost their Status Globally. If you somehow believe the Federal Reserve will support the Bond Complex, you have had multiple opportunities to see the Forrest and no longer trip on twigs. It has been detailed here since July of 2021.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
8
TLT - 20Yr Bond ETFThe Monthly Chart continues to expand in Range. This is interesting as the Range Broadens the implications are quite Dire longer term. TLT was sold heavily prior to the ROC SPike in TNX. ZN was sold on Volume as well, an Instrument we have repeatedly discussed for its weakening structure. __________________________________________________________ Attempting to apply "Convention and Rationale" to an aging Trend is generally, an Idea whose validity should begin to come into question. FASB 56 alone is enough to bring the operations within the Shadows of the Bond Market under duress over time. It is clear the BIS is backstopping this operation - at what cost, we can only surmise. ___________________________________________________________ The Real Issue moving forward for the Bond Complex is one of simplicity. Rates will, in the Short Ter react to Policy and the perceived threat of Inflation. Shadow Operations will require time to unfold, but we believe this process has begun, it will not be brought into he light of Day any time soon, but will eventually, appear in the form of unexplained loss of confidence around the Globe. This will, of course, be devastating to the US Dollar. rendering it a 50 Level once 82 and then 77 are broken. _____________________________________________________________ The competition between China and the United States is well underway and is accelerating on many fronts. With the US Losing its advantages due to its inability to produce Value across former dominant Sectors of Global Trade - a 22nd Century pivot to Asia will continue to gain in both scope and scale, as well as velocity. Financial Isolationism within the approaching rebalancing of Global financial Arrangements will render the US to a weighted SDR status with less than favorable terms and conditions. This will have a devastating effect on the US Bond Market. The curve will be converted to a Perpetual Duration with Principals retired. A balance sheet liability which cannot be reduced without far greater and far more insidious distortions. It can never be eliminated. Never, it is not mathematically possible. Therefore it will be erased to bring balance. Think of it as the FDIC/SPIC coming to save $250K of your $20 Million. You lose, they win. They default in an extraordinary manner and provide token assurance that... one day... they swear to make you whole. It will never happen. ___________________________________________________________ This is axiomatic, pure, and simple. Regardless of the Gyrations... The Future is not "Uncertain" with respect to Bonds and how they will be all but eliminated.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
It's been rough, guys...Yep, everyone's bleeding to the teeth... More leveraged folks had to make decision on their margin calls... It hasn't been pretty... But as a friend told me recently, "All markets are red Just a matter of when and which stocks/coins rebound first Same cycle Same game" ^Disclaimer: Above is not a Haiku poem (but yes i formatted it as such) So back to basics: What are we seeing here: - 10-year Treasury is popping - 20-year Treasury lost steam - Dow Jones broke out & lost steam (R @ 36526 to 36626 --- rejected 369ish - let's say 37000 for now) - VIX looks like it's getting for some real action in about 2 to 8 weeks It's rated as Neutral because who the #### knows (or we can say ONLY THE LORD KNOWS). Fasten your seat belts. Turbulence (or opportunity) ahead. Rooting (reluctantly) for: - Genomics sector - $SHIB Shiba Inu coin - $CAKE Pancake Swap coin - $BNGO Bionano Genomics - $SOFI SoFi - $VLD Velo3D and last but not least - $JEWEL DeFi Kingdoms --- really interesting Let me know what you guys think for the upcoming 2022. Cheers & wishing peace and prosperity to everyone!! (And ofc I can't do that but only the LORD can). Cheers, Noob Investor
NASDAQ:TLT
by thelords
TLT - Daily / 3 Drives @ 149 and Fails Currently the 10 Year Note Yield @ 1.725 -0.008 -0.47%. What seemingly took a long time to begin to complete finally did. __________________________________________________________ There is a great deal in the Wind with respect to TLT presently. LArger Daily Gaps well below with Price Objectives extending to the 134 to 139 Levels - attendant Gap FIlls included. It will depend on ZN's breakdown and whether Yeidls simply Sky to our overhead Price Objectives 1.82 / 1.91 / 2.02 / 2.12 / 2.28 to 3.50 The Inflation Recalc will provide cover for a Retracement next week. Exceeding the 2021 Highs will be a stark warning for the Bond Holders who have been smoked for 1000 Bips in several Months. Chasing Highs while the Inflation persistence was building in all Core Data... generally unwise. We have maintained that Wave 4 would be an Everything Must Go Sale. SO far, so good, it's a THesis that time and again has proven to be correct and how long it extends will depend on a number of factors. We don't see a larger Equity Sell as supportive in a rising rate environment. The SHort end of the Curve appears to be supportive as well. _______________________________________________________________ McDonald's entered 2022 with 14.5% price increases across the Menu. Big Mac's in Bonds give way to Filet o' Fish.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
18
$TLT selling off to $138-141 before rallying higherTLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P bottom and TLT top around March... Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
3
Pivots or Swing Highs and Lows- IPivots are essential in many forms of TA- including the TA i mainly use which is Action-Reaction aka pitchforks Pivots may also be termed swing highs or lows Pivots and swing highs/lows may be harder to define than one first imagines I would define a pivot or swing as follows: A focus of Price Action (PA) which becomes a reversal point This is important because either a V shape or inverse V in PA does not equate with a pivot/swing An acute angle in price may become a pivot or swing in hindsight IF it breaks the trend which price was previously moving along G.R.I. Dec '21 KEY P1 pivot one - price in uptrend along blue diagonal P2- becomes a swing high WHEN blue diagonal is broken to the downside P3- becomes a swing low WHEN yellow diagonal is broken to the upside P4- becomes a swing high WHEN green diagonal is broken to the downside P5- becomes a swing low WHEN pink diagonal is broken to the upside P6- becomes a swing high WHEN purple diagonal is broken to the downside P7- becomes a swing low WHEN green diagonal is broken to the upside
NASDAQ:TLTEducation
by Great_Reset_Investing
TLT - DailyRemarkable how poorly this has performed. The 2 / 10 is causing some issues as there is a fear of contagion. After $12 Trillion in Corporate Junk Issuance to BUY Shares in 2021... Convention would lead one to assume UST's would be bid in greater size and yet the Short end is now catching the attention as 2Yr's went off without a hitch, No Fed, No Need. The ISsue is the Long end of the Curve is eating itself as it believes Inflation will be a persistent RISK. Housing... another issue Globally. ___________________________________________________________________ ZB isn't wrong, nor are the Buyers on Strike with 3 back to back failed auctions. TLT breaking the 50 with ZN Pointing South require a wait n' see position. The AO has dipped into Negative territory... while the price struggles to hold. Neagtive Divergeences abound.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
14