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TLT trade ideas

TLT - Daily / An Abomination of DebtEventually, perhaps... the 007s will come to understand and accept that the Bond Bull has ended. TLT will be reduced to a Double-Digit Midget - another JunkcCo ETF used to entangle the Kingdom of the Rain Dilletanttes. Nixon knew it back in 1973. Volker knew it in 1979 when Debt to GDP was nearly Nada. Now it's well over 200% by Non-Fuzzy Math. Unsure how anyone conceives of buying this using any/all rationale metrics but they do. Simply an amazing denial of reality. To each their own.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
18
Treasuries Continue to Toss their Cookies20-year US Treasury bonds already broke an important level of support (red arrow) and yet again, the ETF finds itself at a crucial crossroads as rates continue to rise, punishing the long-end of the yield curve. "We" have been taught (as a country) to think "bonds are safe," yet we can clearly see that these 20-year bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S. Government, are getting curb stomped, losing almost -20% over the course of the last 18 months. But are bonds "safe," really? It's a seriously problem in our industry - at least I think so... For any investor with a "Balanced" (i.e. - 60/40) or worse yet, "Conservative" (40/60) portfolio model, how do you (as the investor) react to a portfolio that's losing money, not only because stocks are falling in value, but because bonds are getting taken to the cleaners as well? Not to go out on a limb here, but I'm going to make the assumption that most of those on TradingView are a little more knowledgable than the average investor. Furthermore, I'd go so far as to say that most are probably avoiding the bond market like we avoided COVID-19 in March of 2020. I won't make blanket advice here and say to that, "Well.... good, then!" However, I WILL say that at our office, we've been underweighting bonds, overweighting stocks and commodities, and tweaking the target allocations a bit (to all our models) to make up for the possibility that we might be coming out of a 35-year bull market in bonds, as the pendulum swings toward higher long-term rates 3, 5, 10+ years from now. While we don't own any 20-year Treasuries at our office, if you DO, I'd be looking at the horizontal line in the sand below current price, which could act as a potential level of support... but if broken, all bets are off.
NASDAQ:TLT
by CMT_Association
3
TLT - LongWe bought some earlier near 141 were buying some more here. Chart is setting up for a nice move higher but more importantly the macro tells us growth is slowing, in spite of rate hikes (6+) priced in, the fed will realize raising rates as growth slows would be disastrous and we will probably not get more than 2 and the inflation peak in commodity prices is likely already in. Consequently, we will remain shorting commodities, buying gold on pullbacks, out of equities excapt maybe our existing longs in XLP.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by bitofamacroman
1
Volatility/Treasury Unwind coming.Lots of buyers came in at the low 130's, people mistook these buyers for long volatility positions, volatility rose, people dumped equities for algo driven VOL strategies. I think we seen a spiral of bets unfold that don't represent the true market. Of course hedgies piled on to TLT, knowing full well that it is a great short term trade (and that adding uvxy calls to their reporting would be in bad taste). But that's just it, short term trade. Long term holders have added at the low 130's, the price they want. These adds aren't for profit, but for hedging government balance sheets and equity portfolios (huge whales). I expect the Fed to unwind more treasuries onto the market and for us to retest the lows around 130 which is where the Fed put on interest rates will feel comfortable for the rest of the year. The US treasury will yet again raise funds for whatever populist mid-term election strategy they have in mind, and for sure they need cash to send to Ukraine for kickbacks. Yes the DXY can handle a haircut, but no the bond market won't rally under these conditions as they are inflationary and bonds are a dead end for inflationary market. tldr: possible more upside to squeeze enemy hedge funds and safely bet on volatility, but expect the trade to unwind over the next few months. I'm not looking to make a play on treasuries, but instead long $xlf and low p/e banks like $gs
NASDAQ:TLT
by Arete-HI
$TLT BULLWith the current Macro backdrop, entities will go for protection in bonds and dollars. Russia being cut off is going to possibly cause a liquidity event. I have a feeling that this will cause mid term volatility, but the true sell-off crash won't happen for another 3-6 months... I can always be wrong, and it could start this week. I will be shorting equities this week if I see SPY reject 450s...will post on that soon I have been quiet for a reason, now I see the way. CHEERS
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TraderHighCrowned
1
Shark/RectangleTLT is also trading an a Rectangle. A Bullish shark is also noted within the rectangle. Peak 2 is higher than peak one, so clues me in that this is a cypher or shark. PCZ passed the .786 which is landing pad for the Cypher. The .886 to .113 is the landing pad for the Shark. These 2 are very similar patterns with different landing pads. There are differences in the 2nd retracement leg as well. The shark has no rules for this leg other than it can not go below O. Also differences for the PCZ (Point of completion zone). The cypher lands at the .786 of XC and the shark lands at the .886 of OX. The shark is labeled OXABC and the Cypher is labeled XABCD. Both have peak 2 higher than peak 1. They both look like crooked Ms. The bottom trendline of the rectangle is support and there are several close bottoms there. There is also a negative crossover of the longer term moving averages marked with an orange X. The top of the rectangle is 151.30 and the bottom is 132.05. Mid rectangle is 142.95. No recommendation. A rectangle is a neutral pattern, the shark is not. Possible stop under rectangle support line where Mr. Market can not find it. Fund Profile iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange traded fund launched by BlackRock, Inc. The fund is managed by BlackRock Fund Advisors. It invests in the fixed income markets of the United States. The fund invests in U.S. dollar denominated fixed rate U.S. treasury securities with remaining maturity of greater than or equal to twenty years. It seeks to track the performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, by using representative sampling technique. iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF was formed on July 22, 2002 and is domiciled in the United States. The investment seeks to track the investment results of the ICE® U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the "underlying index"). The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in the bonds of the underlying index and at least 95% of its assets in U.S. government bonds. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years. Benchmark: ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond TR USD
NASDAQ:TLT
by lauralea
Higher interest rates soon!Drew this scenario 6 months ago and sent it to my community members showcasing a possibility of future rates hikes and that is exactly what ended up happening. Additionally, keep in mind that there is always a negative correlation between bond yields and bond prices and when rates go up, the shares 20+ will continue going down. Bond prices will plummet. Note that I still think inflation will keep getting higher as I believe that only positive real interest rates matter at this stage and nothing else. Small increases will do nothing to inflation.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by marcyacoub
TLT Seemingly trading higher.TLT ETF seems to be in a good place to trade higher. Fundamentals back the technicals which is a really sweet spot for this particular ETF with the 20yr TB's. Expect a rise out of it over the coming weeks back to the previous highs and beyond but only look to "hodl" should price provide us with a bull breakout of the AP which is the previous weekly highs. If price rejects the highs then we suggest staying clear until the breakout takes place on the proviso you would have already removed any potential risk exposure previously accumalated.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TheTradingRoom
Rising Interest Rates and BondsWith FOMC in focus this week and a general understanding that interest rates are going to rise I did some digging on one way to play a rising interest rate scenario. Key Points Bond price tend to underperform during periods of interest rate rising Longer bonds are more susceptible Shorting TLT could be a potential option First some basics: A bond is a fixed-income instrument that represents a loan made by an investor to a borrower. This bond will pay out at a fixed or variable interest rate called a coupon rate. Bond prices and it's yields inverse each other. The higher a bond price(or par value) rises the lower it's yield will fall. When interest rates rise bond prices generally decline as bonds are issued with the higher interest rate. Say you bought a bond yielding 5%. If a rate increase of say .5% happens before maturity suddenly your bond that yields 5% doesn't look as good as the new ones that are yielding 5.5%. This causes your bond to be worth less than what you initially paid for it. This .5% increase isn't a huge deal if your bond expires in 3 months. But when you start to look at bonds that expire in 5,10,20 years you really start to see the effects of missing out on that .5%. TLT tracks the bond prices of the 20 year treasury bonds. On the weekly TLT has put in another lower low, TTM is showing a squeeze currently pointed downward, and closed right at resistance. However over the past few days TLT has shown a few really nice candles with momentum starting to shift positive. I think some of this shift could be attributed to investors seeking some safer returns in the market selloff. Going long here before the FOMC meeting could prove to be an issue for those investors. I'm looking to short TLT if the daily momentum can start to shift in a negative manner and it doesn't put in a new higher high. If it does continue to shift positive and make that higher high will look to get into a short term long. I'm cautiously optimistic that we get some sort of relief bounce here on the indices which could also help with the short. I won't be making any moves until after the FOMC announcement on Wednesday though. Another thing to keep an eye on is the CPI reading in Feb. If inflation continues to come in higher than expected we could see short term bond prices begin to suffer. I don't think that reading will matter as much for the longer term (10+) year bonds. Lastly interest rate decisions generally take about a year before you start seeing any effects.
NASDAQ:TLT
by buddingmimir