TLT LONGThis needs a couple more months but watching this ascending triangle form to buy dips for continuation
Needs until 2025 to play out.
Looking to buy dips to 94, with a stop loss at 90 and a target of 105 and 119.58.
TLT trade ideas
TLT (Debt Supply) Goes Up With Federal Borrowing (Debt Demand)Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand.
The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends.
SOURCE: x.com
TLT bullishLooks like its forming some triangle. Well, if it breaks out we will head for the backtest. But stoploss below last low.
Huge inverted head and shoulders in bonds.I don't track bonds all that much, but as a general rule when I see scores of people all talking about the same thing (Which they do not normally talk about), I suspect that idea might have gotten too popular for its own good and look to see if there are any obvious fade patterns.
I looked at TLT a while ago and seen the possible head and shoulders. Have just been waiting for a suitable capitulation to support to enter.
Long now.
TLT - Risk Off Is Dead (For Now At Least)As risk on gravy train continues post FED interest rate cut 🚞, it is certainly worth noting that risk off bonds are becoming significantly bearish.
Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down.
Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA.
And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern.
I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles.
Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test.
Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour.
That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐.
Not advice
TLT Monthly Candle TLT monthly candle matches the trend perfectly and is exactly at multiple strategic supports. This sort of perfection usually only occurs when the trend is long determined and the asset is simply dotting eyes and crossing tees on its way to a predetermined destination.
TLT/TLT5 Indicates TLT BBOTThe current value of the ratio of TLT to its leveraged product is equal to the monthly closes of the last two blast off points, resulting in 16% and 20% rallies within 2-5 months.
TLT Double B O T (BBOT Bond Blast Off Time)TLT at every support including the daily RSI. BBOT. Bond Blast Off Time.
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close)
It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon.
BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
TLT/FEDFUNDS might be indicating BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time)Slope of the ratio between Bonds and US Rates looks like 2008 and 2019, right before blast off time.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 100 Calls to the 95 Calls... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit.
Resulting cost basis: 89.11.
It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut rates at some point, just with lower max profit potential.
TLT tends to bottom at the same level of TLT/XLETLT seems to bottom at a consistent level of the ratio of bonds to energy represented by TLT/XLE. TLT is currently at the level associated with macro bottoms and the start of major bond market rallies.
TLT - Bonds - YieldsRetesting breakout trendline, look to buy around 92.5$ with a target around 110 - 115
$TLT: Time for the bond market to wake up TLT at its trend line support, peak volumes, macd looks ready to curl up, last 3 times rsi was this low we saw a considerable bounce, plus a good cpi report on Thursday should provide the catalyst needed to cause a bounce in the bond markets.
Bad day for TLTTLT has lost its uptrend, and lost the 200D EMA.
There's a very long term support line at $94, perhaps we'll get a bounce here that keeps things level until we get the next rate cut.
I'm out of TLT for now, will look to rebuy when I see something that looks like a bottom, or around Halloween in anticipation of a run up leading into the Nov FOMC.
Anyone have ideas on why TLT is falling during a period of rate cuts?
Are we so far ahead of the game that we know rate cuts will ignite inflation, which will push TLT down?
.. or is the international community pulling away from US treasuries, reducing demand.. and the next wave of inflation gets driven by global TBill sales?
Your thoughts are welcome below.
TLT wave 1 down or wave DThe chart posted is the TLT I posted this forecast back at 101 where I went Long PUTS I covered All puts at 97.9 . I will Now move to a 50 to 60 % net Long CALLS at 95.00 even Now and look for a wave 2 or a biggger rally in wave E up
$TLT Crash BottomWe have an extremely strange set of circumstances where the "Fed" is "Cutting Rates" and has promised and said to have "delivered" a soft Landing.
All the while the number one contributing factor to inflation is Wage Inflation. This unchecked wage inflation has caused the federal reserve in essence to shit their pants and all but acknowledge that inflation has gone hyper-inflationary.
On the back of supremely strong and might I add "Faked" jobs numbers the market rallied at the same time the 10 year yield shot through the fucking roof.
Combine this with the fact that the Vix futures were pre-imminently disconnected from the Vix as a smokescreen. All of this amounts to a fundamental paradigm shift in economic policy that is shifting fast toward an un-backed dollar.
This new world order seeks to control the population through the most cost effective means possible.
It is for this reason alone we will witness any and all government bonds for the first time in history going negative.
No they will not be paying interest on these bonds they owe to other nations. They will be avoiding payments before the great "Collapse".
America all the sudden; is a 3rd world nation. With a populous, one nation under slavery. With liberty and Justice for none.
.
It's finally here... After four challenging years, TLT is making a strong return.
The key resistance level to watch is $100.00 or 50 EMA which can act as support or resistance.
If we can break through this barrier, there's a strong possibility of reaching all-time highs within the next 12 months. This potential is fueled by expected interest rate cuts, which could significantly benefit TLT.
First, rate cuts would likely increase bond prices, boosting TLT's net asset value. Second, lower future yield expectations could drive investors to seek the stability and income that long-term bonds offer, further increasing demand. Finally, in times of economic uncertainty , investors often turn to long-term Treasuries as a safe haven, making TLT an attractive choice in a low-rate environment.
TLT Daily Falling Wedge Just FormedFalling Wedge
When a security's price has been falling over time, a wedge pattern can occur just as the trend makes its final downward move. The trend lines drawn above the highs and below the lows on the price chart pattern can converge as the price slide loses momentum and buyers step in to slow the rate of decline. Before the lines converge, the price may breakout above the upper trend line.
When the price breaks the upper trend line, the security is expected to reverse and trend higher. Traders identifying bullish reversal signals would want to look for trades that benefit from the security’s rise in price.
NFA. Trade at your own risk.
Golden cross 50/200 EMA
The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the upside. This happens when the short-term average trends up faster than the long-term average until they cross.
This is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive upward turn in a market.
There are three stages to a golden cross:
A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted. A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average. Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices.
TLTan upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
