Unified Global Charting III: TimeFrom the GFC in 08/9 we can observe a circa 4 year cycle for TLT (high to high)
In this idea i plan to turn our attention to time
I have used the fibonacci time (trend based) tool to further subdivide this
Let's see what else time/cycle analysis can tell us about goverment bonds
G.R.I. Dec '21
TLT trade ideas
Unified Global Charting: IIThis is the evolution of a charting concept based on time, pivots and price
We are looking at the 20+ year treasury bond ETF TLT as i think this is a vital chart for the coming decade
Here i have added in a 'mother' pitchfork off the three marked major pivots
I plan to add some analysis below
G.R.I Dec '21
Unified Global Charting I : Geometry And Time I have decided to share the evolution of this charting concept
It centres upon:
pivots
Geometry
TIME
Here we have the macro chart for TLT, a marker of risk on; and the bellwether for the 40 year bond bull market vs the current 'inflation' narrative
Here I have marked the major pivots and trendlines which relate to the cycles
TLT - Ranging for nowLike everything Else the 007s are contending with an aggressive FED
which is hell-bent on Full control.
Long End 30/20 Cross, Short end muted to heavily Intervened, to put it mildly.
Regardless - in Real Terms, Inflation continues to Eat and Feed on everything.
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Even the DX is confused as to where to go and what to do there.
Crypto continues to perform its SOAK FUNCTION.
Sopping up excess liquidity in order to prevent errant behaviors elsewhere,
by example AMC GME NOK and Penny's.
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Keeping everyone and everything in a "Manic State" is working well for them.
Not so much for Us...
The Only Trade You Need to Make This Year. #SteeplongendThe long End Of Yield Curve will steepen.
Inflation running hot and CB can't hike rates.
Nobody will buy 20-30Y.
Yields Run, TLT Plummets
Double Top with Divergence.
Both, fundamentals and Technicals there.
This may be the only trade you need to make this year.
Everyone will continue to believe inflation is under control until they don't.
This is a trade we can actually see happening in front of us but, nobody has this priced in yet.
Spike Reversal Pattern on Bonds (TLT)Yesterday's close on NASDAQ:TLT broke the day's range causing many to think it was going lower. However, today's open reverses that sentiment by opening back above that short term range.
Bonds are a very cyclically trending instrument (see below) and at some point the down move of the last few days was likely to reverse. This could be the setup with a low risk stop to get long TLT.
20Yr / 30YrAny issues here?
Of course not...
It's' all good.
I swear.
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When the 30Yr Yields remain
below the 20Yr JunkCo ETF Rates.
There is a problem.
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Borrow more with no consequence.
Why is Gold under $200,000 an ounce...
Anyone willing to walk this back
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Remember as Crude Leads, NYSE COMP
and YM beginning crapping themselves
again...
Divorced from Fundamentals
Reality is "Unstable"
The "TLT" Bonds (Updated)Auctions have been releasing offering higher rates as of late. Our previous target of 61% retracement has been rejected so far. On the 1 hour, the previous high was broken with no new lows being made. On the 15 min we are at a light support. I would like to see a stronger support, however, due to recent auctions and higher yields, I could see more bonds being bought soon even with the Fed tapering. Let's see what happens. Yields normally fall when the price of bonds rise. This could be bullish for investors.
Closing (Margin): TLT June 17th 2 x 171/153 Back Ratio Spread... for a 39.10 credit.
Comments: Opened this puppy up for a 36.45 debit on TLT strength. (See Post Below). Taking some risk off by taking profit here a little shy of my profit target, as I've got another short TLT setup on already (a March 18th 151/2 x 163 back ratio). 2.65 ($265) profit; 7.3% ROC.
TLT EPISODE V: BURRY-dHe's apparently no longer short after opening positions near the local bottom
Here I want to see how real our breakout is
It's clearly broken the (dotted white) breakout line with a backtest
The (royal blue) median line from the ABC fork has acted as a resistance and it's above that
It's again above the 50day moving average which has golden crossed the 200 and all is well; with the sequence 50/100/200 being supportive in that order below price
In summary I believe this breakout is real, and can see there is decent volume on the breakout
Also there have been significant inflows into the TLT fund recently
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
TLT EPISODE VI: Full TiLTSo if price keeps running in the orange fork, by getting above the median it would become bullish: and that's the level we're trying to clear right now
After that it needs to get over the median line in the larger purple fork which price has been running in for some time
These also coincide with key resistance levels
The final target is around 190/200 as previously described
I expect all targets to hit within 6 months
But there are no guarantees in trading or markets of course
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
20 year plus bond etfSince mid July, The price of the 20 year plus Bonds has touched or tested the top orange line about 8 times and has retraced 61% more times than not. Bonds going as low as $148 would meet the 200 ema and would be a retracement of 61% of the previous low. The previous has been broken. Let's see where the next level of support is. If this falls, the Yields should rise. Normally, stocks fall "for the most part" when this happens. Let's see if this holds true!
Dollar Up, Vix Up, Bonds UpToday was for the bulls thus far but we're still in a dollar up, vix up, bonds up scenario
The TLT move does not look like a fake break and there is room to run on the RSI. There is no bear divergence.
According to previous moves on the VIX, it would need a green day tomorrow to have a chance of making a new high on this move
The dollar continues to grind marginally higher and i don't think the move is complete yet
NOT TRADING ADVICE
Short Bonds - why, and market review
Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI.
You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red.
So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500 points.
Both the Nasdaq and E Mini Futures returned to almost exactly 50% Fib weekly retracement - not luck, not a sell off in my opinion but just enough to confuse and liquidate a bunch of people.
I am short vol through a long position in SVXY outright and short bonds through TLT through 154 PUT options. The market is off the lows but most likely there will be an opportunity Monday to get in.
My upside target 4620 on the ES Futures to take these positions off - however I think we can go to ALL TIME HIGHS before puking epically - as the Fed taper is happening but we'll only get the details at Dec 15th Fed meeting.
If we get back to 4500 area in the ES - I will look to take a long positions through Futures, however did want that risk on over the weekend.
The orange arrows are a measure of volatility.
Six hour chart.