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TLT trade ideas

Trade Idea (TLT): Shorting 20+ Year Paper Via Ratio BackspreadA setup to take advantage of a potential rising interest rate environment without knowing exactly when rate hikes will occur. Typically, this is set up by buying two of the back month 75 deltas and selling the front month 50 delta, such that you create a spread or diagonal with a net delta metric of around 100 (+100 if a bullish assumption spread or digaonal; -100 if bearish). Here, I would buy the June 75 delta 163's, and sell the December at-the-money 144, resulting in a net delta of -101.65. With a buy-in of 40.81 at the mid ($4081), it isn't particularly cheap, but certainly cheaper than shorting 100 delta of TLT shares outright and with multiple opportunities to reduce cost basis by rolling out the short put aspect if a move isn't immediately forthcoming. From a trade management standpoint I either (a) look to roll out the short put aspect to reduce cost basis further if the long put vertical aspect (i.e., one of the long put contracts + the short put aspect) of the setup doesn't converge on max; (b) look to take profit on the long put vertical aspect as soon as it converges on max and allow the remaining long put contract to either "ride" or cap it off by selling a short put against, creating a "new" long put diagonal. Variations: A long-dated, static long put vertical with lower net delta, specifically targeting 136: TLT June 17th 136/155 Long Put Vertical (Buying the 155, Selling the 136) Buying Power Effect: 10.78 ($1078) Break Even: 144.22 vs. 144.13 (Friday's Close) Delta: -33.62 Max Profit: 8.22 ($822)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
1
TLT - Opprotunity Approaching once againTLT is aimless, wandering the desert which is Bonds. ZN has made new Lows for 2021 and continues to squat over the 130 Level. We believe it will fail as 10 Year Yields begin to complete their Consolidation and cross the 1.645 Level - indicating a move back to the 2021 Highs. We will be entering a SELL on Shares only. IV is not tempting enough at present as the Bond Bid has been absent - today's 8AM EST resolution will provide far more information for the larger trade here. BUlls are eyeing the large Gaps overhead, believing they are next. We're not convinced they are correct, the 172s are a which Implies Extreme Negative Returns. Perpetual Bonds is al 007s will Clip while watching the Capital Dissolve over time. To each their very own.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
4
TLT NEW BULL WAVE HAS STARTED 150 AREA CYCLE LOW IN TLT . I am now very bullish the TLT long side into nov 22 to dec 10 . My forecast for the 10 yr to see 1.62 . was seen I took profits and told traders to exit now .We now have a clear wave structure in TLT for a wave abc down for wave B low . this could be why I have the sp 500 ready to crash into a mini panic into its cycle low due oct 18th . BUT for now I would only be on the long side of TLT . I am now long a 50% at 143 and will add on a buy stop at 145.10 25% . We also saw the low hit right on the bottom of the Bollinger Bands best of trades WAVETIMER
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by wavetimer
1
TLT - Breaking 140.67 on ToothlessWill end badly for the 007s as it can follow ZN back to the 2021 Lows. We will likely see yet another G A P this morning as ZN appears to be hunting the 129s with SELLERS very active Friday. Simply an amazing turn of events... 99% did not see coming. We did and profited in the Extreme. When "Assured" gains are the Dogma - duck duck go. Next up on the Poo Poo Platter... BitCON as Gensler and Biden are making it clear, large changes to the Long CON are unfolding. Wall Street simply wants their Fill, so do we.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
12
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty. Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little. Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper. This will get nasty in the next 10 days. Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can only to let it go again. We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K. NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline. With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly. IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
10
tlt \\ wave 5 swingmorning, tlt looks to have been in a prolonged triple 3 correction for this complex wave 4 triple 3's can be described as an area of re-accumulation by smart money, before the next mark up phase begins. after hitting the downside wave 4 algo target perfectly today, i do think the triple 3 has been completed. possible it hangs out around this range for a few more days to meet the fib-time ratio for this w4. ------- my upside target sits at $157, but there's a good posibility it goes higher than what i am current projecting here. stop loss below the 0.382 ps. the debt ceiling vote later today might play a big influence on where tlt goes next - so def make sure to keep a tight stop, just in case that vote ends up flopping.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by notoriousbids
1
TLT - 145.25 and it's a confirmed Sell on >TFs.Book Clearing 9/27/2021 TLT Position Closures Today @ > 131.40 ZN Closing 100 x 152 Puts Closing 100 x 151 Puts Closing 100 x 150 Puts Open 100 x 151~ Open 100 x 149 Open 60 x 148 Open 60 x 147 Open 60 x 140 We will closely watch 145.24 Level for the Support Level, should it trade below the trade is cast to 139s with a minor retracement to SELL the ETF. Put ladders will be close in total and gains captured. The 007's are yet to see the light and will Buy the Dip, we will oppose their ST Bid in TLT. Longer-term, TLT Structure looks Negative. FED - What not to say this morning beginning @ 10 AM EST> 8:00 AM EST positioning will provide the Micro Trend into Fed Reserve Bullhorns. The attempt to calm the losing battle with YCC could see on more attempts at gaining the upper hand.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
12