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TLT trade ideas

20 year plus bond etfSince mid July, The price of the 20 year plus Bonds has touched or tested the top orange line about 8 times and has retraced 61% more times than not. Bonds going as low as $148 would meet the 200 ema and would be a retracement of 61% of the previous low. The previous has been broken. Let's see where the next level of support is. If this falls, the Yields should rise. Normally, stocks fall "for the most part" when this happens. Let's see if this holds true!
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Redimere_91
Short Bonds - why, and market review Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI. You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red. So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500 points. Both the Nasdaq and E Mini Futures returned to almost exactly 50% Fib weekly retracement - not luck, not a sell off in my opinion but just enough to confuse and liquidate a bunch of people. I am short vol through a long position in SVXY outright and short bonds through TLT through 154 PUT options. The market is off the lows but most likely there will be an opportunity Monday to get in. My upside target 4620 on the ES Futures to take these positions off - however I think we can go to ALL TIME HIGHS before puking epically - as the Fed taper is happening but we'll only get the details at Dec 15th Fed meeting. If we get back to 4500 area in the ES - I will look to take a long positions through Futures, however did want that risk on over the weekend. The orange arrows are a measure of volatility. Six hour chart.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Maximilianned
1
Do you feel lucky...well do ya? 🤠Look at the chart...then look at your portfolio...then look at the chart again. Where do you think TLT is heading? Every time JNK/TLT touched the trendline, a TLT rally followed it, 4 times in the past 13 years. Do you think it will happen a 5th? 30Y at zero is something like ~200 on TLT, this is the best ROI trade right now IMO. Yes it will take a year or two, and if it happens sooner, then great! :) No need to make comparisons to 1929...too many different factors at play. However, we also had a similar setup when YoY inflation was high back in 2007 with housing at all time highs... and remember where that ended up? ;) Not saying anything will happen next week...but as a long term investor this is my bid over the next year. If 13 year downward trendline breaks on JNK/TLT, I'm out of TLT...but until then...
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by logica
6
TLT +.41% / While 20Yr @ High Yield of Month 2.06%Today's 20 Year Auction was sloppy and dangerous for Wood Panel FanBoys. We released the Mastif's who chased Eddie Munster off our land. Alexandra put a few 10 Gauge Triple Otts in Steve's BUttocks for good measure. Hopefully, this will suffice. IF not - it's on to more persuasive actions. Alex adores the thought. ________________________________________________________________ www.treasury.gov Bonds are seeing further FED Props. Jit's Nasty out there for the 007s. ZN is barely hanging on... Price Objective for ZN 129.55 Structure is Weakening DOW at Session Lows. Crude Dumpster Fire. ___________________________________________________ Bond Market Dislocations ahead.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
7
TLT - ROCs @ Mid Curve007s have been back announcing the latest "Sure Thing" in Scottish Moors. Just bring back the Wood Paneling, please. We would appreciate Steve leaving our Front Yard. _______________________________________________ TLT has not closed over its recent Highs. All Bets at the Flamingo's Roulette Wheel are on 33. _______________________________________________ With the 2nd highest ROC in a few weeks @ +7.75%... Sightings of "Wrong Way Conway" @ Gilligans Isle/ We'll Oppose - as when we hear Metal to Metal contact, loud crunching sounds, glass breaking, blood, and bags of Frito Lays strewn about... Train Wreck.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
6