TLT updateshort the golden zone at 147ish
could get all the way up to 149 if they push it through the gz.
target = 143.50
update to previous post:
TLT trade ideas
Bonds Bearish? Stocks Bullish?Let me know your thoughts everyone! Im very curious to see what the general public is thinking.(agreements, disagreements, any thoughts are welcome) Are you guys bullish on stocks or on bonds?
Here are 3 different time frames for the TLT 20 Year Bond ETF(daily, weekly, and monthly). In my analysis you see we have been in an ascending channel(textbook bearish) for almost 15 years arguably more. We broke out during the major market crash in march of 2020 and stayed above it until around January of 2021.We formed a descending triangle(textbook bearish) and broke to the downside back into the ascending channel. This is what you would call a false breakout which is also bearish. Not only did we break below the descending triangle but for now it has been holding resistance the past week.
Why is this important?
Bonds and stocks are for the most part inversely correlated. So if you trade stocks, bonds are an important market to look into.
The top of the ascending channel has massive resistance as you can see it not only touched it 6 times before breaking out, it also needed a black swan event to breakout of the channel.
You might also see a massive head and shoulders(text book bearish) forming on the weekly. If this plays out we can potentially see a $120 TLT which isn't that crazy of a predication when you consider we were just at $110 in November of 2018. (keep in mind that the first shoulder took roughly a year and a half to form so we can say if this plays out were looking about the same time frame for the second shoulder to fully form) That would also be the bottom of the channel, which if that cant hold support then we can be seeing a $100 TLT which was last seen in January of 2014.
This would be great news for stocks, terrible news for the dollar. Inflation is getting worse everyday. And when you take all these things(fundamental and technical) into consideration it doesn't look good for bonds in the medium term. We have just broken to the downside of a descending channel and flipped to resistance, just broke back into an ascending channel after a false breakout, have been in a clear down trend since the peak during the corona virus crash, and we have room to hit at least $120(bottom of the ascending channel) by July of next year if this down trend continues.
A breakout above the ascending channel retest on the previous resistance and continuation upward will obviously invalidate this analysis
Q2 earnings also start tomorrow and there is very high expectations. If expectations are to be met or even beat, then I would say its more likely the markets will pump stocks and dump bonds. And this uptrend in stocks will be looking to continue until we enter a deflationary phase in the markets. That is when I believe bonds will breakout the downtrend and being to recover.
SPY is also showing it has more room to go before coming down and I will post that in my next analysis.
tlt going longmany good things going for TLT
break of resistant
double bottom
above 9 and 50 day moving av.
Target 152.69
the 50% level
if you do it with options its a 100% return
TLTEvery time Bridge Bands prints a "red trend" indicator, prices comes up to the red "trade" dots, and price typically surpasses it.
It's 2021 tho, all bets are off.
Lookout! The Wealthy Are Shorting The Economy20 year yields appear to be breaking out of a long downtrend which has witnessed a boom in the stock market since this asset's crash back in March of last year.
But now the winds seem to be shifting possibly again as now the TLT has started July with fireworks and yields appear to be flipping bullish.
This would be very bad for stocks.. however please keep in mind that this is a lagging indicator. Sometimes it plays out in perfect sync, sometimes it takes months to come into effect. Which means, the remainder of the year should be safe for equities. 2022 however, if 20 year yields confirm bullish, would be fair game to see the real crash in the stock market that many have been waiting for.
A play on bonds could be the potential bet/hedge in the distant future.
If you enjoyed this post please leave a like :)
Infflation HysteriaInflation is the hot topic, deflationists have been told to leave, don't let the door hit you on the way out.
Anytime the weekly RSI on TLT has gotten this oversold we have been at or near a bottom.
Maybe Inflation Nation is getting too crowded and GOLD which follows TLT closely is sniffing this out.
The "Big Short" is buying call options on 3X levered Short Treasury ETFs, what could go wrong?
TLTSymbol: NASDAQ:TLT
Type: Stock Market Analysis
Indicators
Laguerre RSI
Multi-Time Frame EMA
Opinion: With bonds continuing higher; this will put a lot of pressure on the market especially growth stocks.
Are the bond bulls in control or is it time for a break?Bonds have reached a very important level. For now this seems like a *logical* place for the *anti-reflation* / deflation trade to end, and for the risk on trade to be back. I am more on the disinflationary (very low inflation) camp, however bonds have risen substantially and it might be time to take some profits before the resume lower. I don't think we will have extremely high inflation yet and I don't think we will have the good type of inflation because things are going well. I do expect Oil to go higher and that to cause all sorts of issues and higher prices, but other than that I don't think bonds will get crushed. At least no yet.
The key question for the whole reflation trade is... WIll bonds and USD keep going higher, with only US behemoths rallying or and the rest bleeding or struggling, or could we get a larger shock? Because to me if the USD really breaks out and heads for 96 on the DXY, while bonds also rally... we will eventually see something break. I think we'll soon have a better idea of where things could be heading next so it is better to be patient and take a few select trades that go well with this environment and look technically sound.
Rising TLT + Rising Indices. Are these two are now correlated?XTN and DJT are no longer making any all time high yet the market keeps making all time high
tlt wave 5 swing setuphit our upside target perfectly, looking for a pullback to the -0.382 at about 143ish
wave 4 target = 143
wave 5 target = 151
When Bonds and Stocks go up together...... it is a sign of a top approaching??
Disclaimer: This is just an opinion, not a financial advice. Do your own homework.
๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $TLT Daily. Bearish Divergence โ ๏ธ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฑ๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $TLT Daily. Based at 135 support area and now testing 200dma. Above can go higher, but bearish divergence โ ๏ธ so could top
$TNX $ZB_F $ZN_F $SPY $SPX $ES_F $VIX $QQQ $NDX $NQ_F $GLD $GDX $DXY #Bonds #Stocks #Trading
TLT - Confirmed bottom - More upsideThoughts and ideas are my own view.
Now, I've been in a trade on TLT for a little while now. About 2 weeks. It's quite obvious there's a couple things going on here:
1. A reduction of downward momentum that ended in mid-March.
2. A move up followed by a corrective move to the downside which did not make a new low
3. Our indicators indicated we were about to make a move to the upside
4. There's also a visible inverted head and shoulders that broke out on June 8
Mix all these things and there's a squeeze that is expanding to the upside as well. Although we may see a pullback to retest the breakout area, I'm interested in seeing TLT make a move up to approximately $149 in the coming month.
Is TLT saying we are about to have a Vix explosion? I have been following many charts and patterns for quite some time. and The set up for an entire market melt down is almost too perfect right now. and I will go through the list of events that have taken place:
First lets start with Gold. Gold had rallied on the back of lower yields for the better part of 2 months all to just get shot down during the FOMC meeting just a few weeks ago when the dollar shot up. (gold tends to lead the market sells offs by about 2-3 weeks) Mind you all of this has happened as yields have gone lower and lower. (totally not what you would expect from an "inflationary environment") gold respects real rates however if deflation was about to start happening, then this is the exact precursor you would expect. This is why I believe that if I am wrong about the vix explosion gold is going to be the best buy of the quarter.
Then lets move to the DJT (dow jones transports) I explained this in my prior IYT analysis which can be found here:
The transports just like gold and precious metals are generally the first assets to take a hit give or take about 2-3 weeks before general market correction.
and that leads me to my last point. TLT, oh tlt you dirty whore you. (I am currently long tlt fyi) The set up in the line chart of tlt is identical to the pre-covid crash as you can see in this chart.
But wait there's more.. Why has DXY been rallying along with TLT that does not happen very often. Some times it happens here and there But it does not happen for stretch of 2 weeks. All I am saying is stay hedged people. this is a very very risky set up.
TLT TO SEE NEW LOWS RATES RISE I have just moved to a net short tlt . a= c at .382 look for a new leg lower 131
$TLT Continues to Defy Traditional Logic and Beat Up Bond ShortsTLT has been trending higher. Make no mistake about it. That's in spite of record inflation and 7% GDP growth estimates for the year. Higher. Rates, lower.
One would think something has to give here. But the lower-for-longer trade seems to be peering around the corner right now.
TLT - TBT - IWM - FED Vs BurryI believe in Dr. Michael Burry analysis and vision.
in the next crash, which is warming slowly now, we can make a lot of gains. We only need long term strategy and patience.
I keep following Dr. Burry portfolio, the next SEC filing will be around August 16.
Good luck everyone.
Samy
Don't get PLAYED by Big Money: Inflation Trade Over?To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ...
In this video we look at examples of the last two years when the media hype was the OPPOSITE trade to take for...
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