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TLT trade ideas

$TLT - Bond volatility low and ripeNow that Fed chiefs are selling their stocks near all time highs they can now start tapering quantitative easing and we could see bond market volatility pick up from current depressed levels.. 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT has a 52wk IVR of 3.47% and another way to insulate your long term portfolio from more volatility is to buy a straddle on bond volatility.. we’re looking at the NOV’19 ATM $148 straddle for a debit of $6.63.. and close for 50% profit or loss of premium, whichever comes first..
NASDAQ:TLT
by Click-Capital
Bullish TLTTrendlines : All downtrend lines that can be drawn from $172.25 and below have been broken. Last downtrend line drawn above and has been broken as well. Support/Resistance : $153.16-$154.63 is a possible resistance zone that could pause this rally however, given the rallying dollar and narrative of economic slowdown, we could certainly retest $172.25. Moving Averages : new uptrend line confluence with the 50 SMA. Above all major MA’s: EMA 9, SMA 20, 50, 100, 200. Bullish unless new uptrend line/50 MA breaks.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by DavidTammari
TLT - Longer End 10/20/30 FlatteningSince 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration within this timeframe. It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control for the Federal Reserve and their ability to drive Monetary Policy. During the waning decades to today, the Bond Markets have become 11.2X the size of Equities. Since 2008 we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in Money Stock, one which remains underreported then (as the FED ceased reporting M2) to today where the very life blood of Credit Growth Velocity has dried up and reversed. TARP, TALF and the Yield Swaps accumulated $32 Trillion in Debt. 91% of the American Public was against these Monetary Measure then.... Today they Gag for it as the Global Economy lays in ruin. Independent Producers have been wrecked to the point, recovery is simply not viable. The FED Minutes served to provide several references to moving up the Timeline for Tapering. This provides cover for Powell's (we'll let ya know while we're thinking about thinking) as behind the scenes they are preparing for short duration reduction in the usual suspects - RMBS, CDO, CDO, Corp Debt, Zombie DEBT. Yield Curve Controls became evident as the 1.71 10Yr yield was not permitted to be breached, had it and Swaps would have been grossly offsides and created a large dislocation. At present, The uncertainty over the impact of this Policy change - Potential Policy change - remain in Flux. The Dollar, our target is 9465 ST, remains the wild card as the EU faces retribution for decades of abuse and a failed attempt at Negative Interest Rates - the vote of Confidence ALWAYS flows to the Currency of Seniorege, the US DOLLAR. Capital Flows favor US Markets as China is making it extraordinarily clear, they are closing off the Monetary & Economic Borders well in advance of the UNWIND coming to our shores. A steepening or inverting yield Curve is immaterial. We crossed the Rubicon long, long ago. As we witness the SPX to M2 Stock overthrow the .22 level - there is an important message there, extremely important, which is why we suggested the ES would attempt an over-throw on Friday @ the 4441 level. These actions ahead of Jackson Hole are significant. More to follow within the 5 Part thesis beginning with ES/M2S, TLT, Divergences, Capital Flows and "Resurrections' Trade" HK
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
2
Investors are more Risk Averse : TLT vs HYGTLT/HYG - RiskOff vs. RiskOn: Tells you how risky investors/lenders are... The Chart presented maps the performance of TLT (risk off) vs. HYG (risk on). It is evident that there is currently a risk off move occurring in the markets. When TLT outperforms HYG, this is bearish for equites. On the chart, I inputted vertical lines on the periods where TLT outperforms HYG. When this occurs it usually spells a short term peak in the markets. TLT is a measure for the safest form of credit: 10Y US Treasury Bills. The yield on these bills is known as the "risk free rate". Investors looking for a risk averse strategy will put their money in here and gather a humble return. However, when investors are looking to get paid more for the money they are loaning; they look for High Yielding Grade credit otherwise known as, Junk Bonds. This debt has higher risks of default but, are more profitable. Credit is what makes America great. People/corporations spend, spend, spend borrowed money which, leads to more people having more money in their bank accounts. As lenders becoming more risk averse they lend less and are more prudent with their money. Lenders will gravitate to safer investments that do not risk default. After all, when you borrow; you borrow from your future self.
NASDAQ:TLT
by arama-nuggetrouble
12
TLT - 150 Puts now Active - ZN 134s STO / ZB 16490 STOsTLT Gap Fill was the Fill. 150 Put entry completed on GF. November 150s now solidly in profit for this trade, B/E is stop as VX enters and true range appears at 2:45PM EST. This is an aggressive SELL on TLT for us. We believe TLT ends up being Sold Hard. ZN/ZB tend to lead these declines. The Setups in both ZN & ZB are complete. We hold large positions in both: ZN @ 134.00 x 25 ZB @ 164.90 @ 25 Our largest and ONLY Position outside of AMC SELLs. We believe this trade will see 3% at minimum, it will be very quick and very dirty as ROCs expand. Bond Curve >/= 10yr in confirmed SELL.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by HK_L61
2
Consumer Sentiment: Uh Oh.This morning, the UMCSI printed a 70.2, which is the worst number since March of last year and, prior to that, the end of 2011. If you were wondering why TLT is up 1.4% today, and XLP is crushing, while XLY and XLF are getting hurt, it's because a slowdown in consumer sentiment is REALLY bad for inflation expectations and retail spending. This further plays into the deflationary trends that have been winning the recent fight in treasuries, and explains why tech seems unconcerned. Consumer Staples is strong off of the back of relative valuation. If you're not paying attention, this one reading was simple to miss, but we think it's going to be driving market sentiment over the next few weeks. Fundamental sentiment appears to be shifting from a GDP point of view, and we are much less bullish on equities as a whole than we were 4 hours ago. Cheers!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PropNotes
5