TLT trade ideas
Don't fight the FED!Follow policy.
If you need to buy - wait for deep pull backs
If you want to short - sell on rallies.
...But don't fight the FED!
Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks.
A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week.
Join in this great trade!
TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
$TLT Daily$TLT entering nice supply zone here, with solid support at 134. Lot of call sweeps hit the tape today for 140 calls 6/18. This is getting very close to a bottom, which obviously would not be good for equities. Keep an eye on this one. I would sell some puts at these levels or buy 140 calls 6/18 exp.
TLT long both fundamentali and technicaliTLT looks a good call for Jan 2022 both fundamentali and technicali. will go back to this chart on Jan 22.
TLT monthly study - down 20% and more through 2021This study compares current peak with peaks in 2012 and 2016. If history repeats, TLT is heading down from now through 2021, and bottom around Feb 2022.
TLT Is the Most Important Chart To Watch This Week.This month is an incredibly crucial week for TLT and can be a telling signal about the overall market.
Fundamental Analysis:
TLT is approaching the highs it made in August 2019. If TLT is considered a proxy for "risk-off" behavior. Do you think our economic landscape is as, "risk-off" as it was in August 2019?
Short Duration Treasury Bills are approaching negative yields. At Treasury Notes/Bill Auctions, more and more primary dealers are bidding 0%. Long Term Rates will always follow short term rate. Low Short Term Treasury Yields signify that dealers are willing it buy these assets at expensive prices, the buyers don't care about the yield. When Short Term Yields go negative which is very possible, this will cause a domino effect that will cause a major decline in the longer duration bond yields. Primary dealers will bid lower yields on longer-term bonds because it will be a cheaper alternative than buying short-term bills with at zero or negative yields. I guess the main question to ask yourself is: Why are Short Term Yields plastered to zero? If the stock market enters into a "Super Bubble" phase I would expect TLT to fall been lower to 130. But I am mostly convinced that this is a bottom in TLT.
Technical Analysis
1. Bullish Consildation
2. Declining Volume
3. Near 0.5 retracement area
4. Selling Volume Exhausted
5. Bullish RSI Divergence
6. Possible ABCD harmonic
7. Support at 145
8. Has touched bottom of Bollinger Band. (Not Shown) *Use any Mean Reversion TA tool it will show you this is oversold on Daily timeframe.
9. Cyclic RSI shows price is at a very low level relative to past prices.
Rolling (IRA): TLT May 21st 148 to June 21st 145 Covered Calls... for a .92/contract credit.
Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). With the May 21st 148's at greater than 50% max, rolled out to the June 145's. Total credits collected of 6.42/contract with the June 21st 145's currently valued at around 1.60/contract, so I've realized gains of around 4.82/contract on the call side so far this year. With a cost basis of sub-110 (the last time I acquired), I remain fine with either being called away or continuing to work covered calls.
My natural preference would be for the underlying to settle so that I wasn't constantly chasing calls down the ladder, but you can't have everything.
20 year bonds vs silver weekly ratio chartCurrently refueling tank. Next important move right around the corner!
even though they stink, can treasuries have a place as a safety?Im not a fan, but banks are! will they bounce in the next sell off as a hideout?
TLT LongBreakaway Gap
Possible Double Bottom
Demand zone Confirmation
Entry 139
Stop 135
Target 1
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Bond bull, bear gold and stocksTLT has been accumulating for the past 17 years it's about to go into it's biggest bull market!!! IMO
Deflationary collapse pending catalystTips go based on real rates and speculative forces have pushed the long end of the curve extremely far. Although counter to what most think we're in a deflationary cycle. Tlt is needing a catalyst to cause mayhem and question the FED's credibility. Powell will likely get fired this time
USG bond ETF $TLT options, inspired by CryptoHayesHello. This is my overnight setup for the weekend. I wanted to hold short or open long equities rather than bonds but it's not feasible at the moment.
Unfortunately this is posted after market close, but will serve as a journal for how poorly/fantastically I play it.
A funky strangle, with a 1:1:1 ratio:
Mar 19 +140C @ 0.65
Mar 19 +135P @ 1.45
Apr 16 +100P @ 0.07
Profit zone:
~$133 > x < ~$141
What I am planning:
For TLT to rise rapidly and CryptoHayes to be wrong, letting me roll/close in profit, covering the initial costs of all 3 positions along with profit. This is why i decided to buy the calls closer to the money. If I am wrong on Monday's directional close, I will likely close all 3 positions and take the loss. The expiries are not good.
Mistakes I can point out immediately:
I've chosen options too close to expiry
I expect movement and have not hedged for no mvement
I may have opened too early just to have a position open
Personal consumption is on the rise, and that may lead to inflation
Reason for the Mar 19 140C call: I am very bullish on bonds due to recent news. Stimulus, taxes confirmed not to be reduced. You've got to be mental to think the USG would want to raise rates. Though consumer spending is almost back to previous highs...
Reason for Mar 19 135P: Maybe it'll go down now. Reflation due to easing of Covid lockdowns.
Reason for Apr 16 100P: I'm certain this is not how you do it, but it's my "tail risk", cheap hedge in case yield hell breaks loose.
Better picture because the preview is missing some items:
% Compare of TLT and 30 year yield
Personal Consumption
What's CryptoHayes would have instead recommended: go ape mode on bitcoin, ape mode hedge on bond yields.
TLT ready to take off! Massive shorts in bond market. Given the current condition I think TLT is ready for 80% move to the upside and stock market to about to go through very rough liquidation imo. DXY is likely to hit all time high as well I think.
TLT rocket ready for Powell's launch sequenceWhile the bond market blood bath may scare some, I believe it is an opportunity to catch a fly with chopsticks Mr. Miagi style.
The narrative that bonds are selling off because of inflation fears is oversold hype and Guggenheim's CIO Scott Minerd and PIMCO's head of short-term management Jerome Schnieder agree.
www.guggenheiminvestments.com
www.youtube.com
Inflation is transient and with a liquidity supernova descending upon the markets, this will push short-term rates down leaving fixed-income investors chasing long-term (duration) bonds. The Fed itself will likely introduce some type of Twist style program expanding purchases of duration bonds. Add in the upcoming SLR exemption expiration and the historical long-term trend in the decline in the US10Y and the case for lower rates becomes very sexy.
Yellen is going to be dumping $1.1T into money markets.
www.bloomberg.com
SLR exclusion exemption may not be extended. Democrats are demanding higher banking restrictions. No SLR extension creates a bottleneck for O/N repos and warehousing.
www.ft.com
There is also a strong technical case as it is oversold and we've had a very bullish engulfing reversal candle. This looks primed to explode any day now. Additionally, the US10Y looks overbought with the classic evening star doji.
Minerd believes rates US10Y will hit -.5% by 2022. While I think that is a little on the extreme end of the range, I do believe 1.15% to 1.25% in the near term is realistic with .5%.
Disclaimer: At the time of writing I do hold longer-dated expiry ITM TLT calls.
TLT Support at old POC around 138.50 on the Volume ProfileHave to go back to early 2020 to find support at the Point of Control in TLT around 138.50
We have Topped the Stock Market!Clear Reversal in the Bond market, Buying Volume along with an Almost Full Hammer indicating a very likely possibility of a top in the stock market.
The Buying Volume this week was high and as strong as the Buying Volume Just BEFORE the March 2020 Crash.
After such a long run-up , it is about time we have that MAJOR Correction.
Short the Market, Long the Bond Market
