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TLT trade ideas

TLT - Risk Off Is Dead (For Now At Least)As risk on gravy train continues post FED interest rate cut 🚞, it is certainly worth noting that risk off bonds are becoming significantly bearish. Notice that TLT 20 year bond ETF has seen a significant failure printing a 3 wave pattern with a slightly higher high to then collapse back down. Also notice that it is a failure through the 20 month MA. And this is printing a very bearish Evening Star Pattern. I say "very" because the current candle is printing a significant bearish engulf of previous bullish candles. Overall this is a very bearish look and I think this has a reasonable chance of re-testing the lows to print a Wyckoff ST Secondary Test. Its not impossible that there could be another wave down if US government debt falls further out of market favour. That is less likely I would suggest but never say never 🧐. Not advice
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by dRends35
6
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close) It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon. BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by MarkLefevre
2
Bad day for TLTTLT has lost its uptrend, and lost the 200D EMA. There's a very long term support line at $94, perhaps we'll get a bounce here that keeps things level until we get the next rate cut. I'm out of TLT for now, will look to rebuy when I see something that looks like a bottom, or around Halloween in anticipation of a run up leading into the Nov FOMC. Anyone have ideas on why TLT is falling during a period of rate cuts? Are we so far ahead of the game that we know rate cuts will ignite inflation, which will push TLT down? .. or is the international community pulling away from US treasuries, reducing demand.. and the next wave of inflation gets driven by global TBill sales? Your thoughts are welcome below.
NASDAQ:TLT
by JebusLives
13
$TLT Crash BottomWe have an extremely strange set of circumstances where the "Fed" is "Cutting Rates" and has promised and said to have "delivered" a soft Landing. All the while the number one contributing factor to inflation is Wage Inflation. This unchecked wage inflation has caused the federal reserve in essence to shit their pants and all but acknowledge that inflation has gone hyper-inflationary. On the back of supremely strong and might I add "Faked" jobs numbers the market rallied at the same time the 10 year yield shot through the fucking roof. Combine this with the fact that the Vix futures were pre-imminently disconnected from the Vix as a smokescreen. All of this amounts to a fundamental paradigm shift in economic policy that is shifting fast toward an un-backed dollar. This new world order seeks to control the population through the most cost effective means possible. It is for this reason alone we will witness any and all government bonds for the first time in history going negative. No they will not be paying interest on these bonds they owe to other nations. They will be avoiding payments before the great "Collapse". America all the sudden; is a 3rd world nation. With a populous, one nation under slavery. With liberty and Justice for none. .
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Midgar-
28
It's finally here... After four challenging years, TLT is making a strong return. The key resistance level to watch is $100.00 or 50 EMA which can act as support or resistance. If we can break through this barrier, there's a strong possibility of reaching all-time highs within the next 12 months. This potential is fueled by expected interest rate cuts, which could significantly benefit TLT. First, rate cuts would likely increase bond prices, boosting TLT's net asset value. Second, lower future yield expectations could drive investors to seek the stability and income that long-term bonds offer, further increasing demand. Finally, in times of economic uncertainty , investors often turn to long-term Treasuries as a safe haven, making TLT an attractive choice in a low-rate environment.
NASDAQ:TLT
by FlyingWiener69
6
TLT Daily Falling Wedge Just FormedFalling Wedge When a security's price has been falling over time, a wedge pattern can occur just as the trend makes its final downward move. The trend lines drawn above the highs and below the lows on the price chart pattern can converge as the price slide loses momentum and buyers step in to slow the rate of decline. Before the lines converge, the price may breakout above the upper trend line. When the price breaks the upper trend line, the security is expected to reverse and trend higher. Traders identifying bullish reversal signals would want to look for trades that benefit from the security’s rise in price. NFA. Trade at your own risk. Golden cross 50/200 EMA The golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a major long-term moving average to the upside. This happens when the short-term average trends up faster than the long-term average until they cross. This is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive upward turn in a market. There are three stages to a golden cross: A downtrend that eventually ends as selling is depleted. A second stage where the shorter moving average crosses up through the longer moving average. Finally, the continuing uptrend, hopefully leading to higher prices.
NASDAQ:TLT
by FlyingWiener69
2
Clean Break To The UpsideFalling Wedge Pattern Success rate : Falling wedge statistics - In 82% of cases, the exit is bullish. - In 55% of cases, a falling wedge is a reversal pattern. - In 63% of cases, the pattern's price objective is achieved when the resistance line is broken. Why should you buy into bonds after a rate cut? HERE ARE 5 REASONS... When a central bank cuts interest rates, bonds can become more attractive for several reasons: 1: Bond Prices Tend to Rise: When interest rates fall, the yield on new bonds is lower, making existing bonds with higher yields more attractive. As a result, the price of existing bonds rises, which benefits those who already own them or buy in anticipation of further price increases. 2: Fixed Returns Become More Attractive: After a rate cut, returns from savings accounts and other short-term investments decline. Bonds, offering a fixed rate of return, become more appealing, especially for income-focused investors looking for stability in a low-rate environment. 3: Lower Future Borrowing Costs: A rate cut often signals that borrowing costs will stay low, benefiting businesses and governments that issue bonds. This may lead to more bond issuances, and investors can capitalize on buying bonds before yields drop further. 4: Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty: Rate cuts often occur during economic slowdowns or periods of uncertainty. Bonds, particularly government or high-quality corporate bonds, are seen as safer investments compared to stocks, making them attractive for risk-averse investors. 5: Capital Gains Potential: As bond prices increase with falling rates, there is an opportunity for capital gains. Investors can potentially sell bonds at a higher price than they were purchased for, profiting from the price appreciation. In short, buying bonds after a rate cut can offer both income stability and the potential for price gains, especially in a low-interest-rate environment.
NASDAQ:TLT
by FlyingWiener69