TLT trade ideas
Expecting Rates to bounce here, and growth names along with it..Not investment advice. My opinion only.
TLT
potential clue for the next vix spikeI have found that ever time the trend changes or the uptrend line is touched in this chart it generally coincides with a very large vix spike. I have highlighted the trend changes in blue, and the line touches in red. it can be a lagging indicator maybe a day or 2 or maybe even longer. but i have a hunch this is telling me the market is about to turn.
TLT Prepare to LongDemand below Sideway Consolidation
Entry 147
stop 145
Target 157
Plan A: Sell PUT under 147 for now.
Plan B: Buy Call spread in the demand Zone
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
Leading Indicators Part 2 - an early warningIn this second set of LEading indicators...
The TLT (Bonds ETF) see a sell off trend starting... this is actually bullish for the equities market
The TIPS appears to have possibly topped.
The VIX and VVIX are bullishly divergent. IMHO, due for a spike soon.
Overall... bullish until it hits the fan. It appears that we may be in for another surprise.
Just be cautious if you are bullish.
TLT Weekly - Return to trendline for '21?Watching TLT if it returns to this trendline (140s seems important for any bounce)
I HAVE ADDED A 10% MARGIN TO NET LONG 158.50 WE ARE NOW TWO LEGS DOWN FOR THE END OF THIS DROP AND AT .618
TLTNot a good look for bonds imo. I took a hit on my starter position today but going to avoid for a while at this point unless a good short setup appears.
TLT long itTrend line , maybe a bull flag-ish pattern and at previous diagonal resistance. Text book long on this, $200 is a nice round long target. RSI has room to run. If this breaks down then bond will go much lower and the trade is closed out. We will see how this plays out.
Market Crash Inbound? TLT WILL DECIDE $TLT $SPY | Play of YearTLT (inverse gov bonds) looks like it's ready to make a move within the next few weeks, after forming a pretty nice wedge. This will ultimately be a very important indication of what direction the market will be heading in Q1 21 and beyond...
(scroll for options play idea)
Just looking at the fundamentals on TLT, we can predict a market-wide dump (nice correction) with the next 4 months, nailing it on the head will be the difficult part which will most likely involve some type of fundamentals like another rate cut for example (what happened back in Feb and March). TLT is an extremely slow mover, which makes a extremely profitable during higher volatility moves.
This will predict the direction of almost the entire market. TLT would give an indication of a bullish market and economic bounceback if it falls off below $154.63 , but would be confirmed with the break below $148.9. TLT would indicate a potential market-wide correction if it were to break $159.7 as it should make a quick move toward $170 once broken. The economy might get sketchy If TLT were to break $172.15.
Back in February, we entered TLT after the gap up and continuation past $148.90, leading us to a 19% move at highs from that level. Now we will watch $159.7 for a potential breakout which will ultimately result in a similar move as we saw in Feb.
THE EASY LOOT PLAY:
|BULLISH| : TLT $170 CALL 4/16/21 @ $140 AVG (I like)
or
TLT $170 CALL 3/19/21 @ $90 AVG (higher reward higher risk)
|BEARISH| : Not gonna touch it, sit on hands and find other great growth
Timing is key, don't jump the gun
DCJ | Jack
Bonds are finally about to break out!Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
Correlation between BTC, TLT/JNK, and the Georgia Senate RunoffI've put this together after watching and reading over the weekend about the potential influence the Georgia Senate Runoff has on the market. Shown here is the correlation between BTC (or any other crypto for that matter) and the Treasury bond market to Junk bond index. People keep moving money into bonds showing FEAR in the market. Since bonds and the USDC has very little value due to the printing of the dollar, people are moving to Bitcoin to store their currency. IF the TLT/JNK were to break out we may see people move into Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and liquidate all of their stocks.
This is just my hypothesis and it may change depending on the latest news.
Make or break time TLTTLT poised to make a big move..... is it going to be up or down?
Long now but will be out if it moves against me but will not hesitate to get back in if it is a false breakdown.
10 Year yield looks like it’s going down as well to .7350, this means TLT hits 166?
🤞
