Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 7Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 7
TLT trade ideas
TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24?TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24? I think the current break out by long bonds into the 5%'s has enough momentum to take the 20 year to 5.2% and TLT to $86. Bought into TMV on 4/24/24 and will hold until we reverse. The PCE report on 4/26/24 will confirm this move or invalidate it.
$TLT - Trade of the decade. NASDAQ:TLT runs inverse to the 10YTreassury note. The gap just below $85 should be filled when the 10Y goes back to 4.9%. When the gap closes and yields come back down, NASDAQ:TLT will be the place to park your money... NFA.
$TLT, the last bond rally before bear market continuation?NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92.
Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts.
After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish bonds after the $98 resistance gets tagged.
I also think we'll see new lows (I know this is very opposite of what most people think will play out). This is also likely the catalyst that brings down the stock market (rates rise more than people think is possible).
Let's see how it plays out.
TLT Investment Opportunity // BuyTLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.
TLT... Time to Buy?Good R/R for a long down here, especially with a potential for a weekly hammer to set up a higher low from the 2023 bottom. Especially with a seeming "risk off" in the markets could be an attractive place to look for returns. Been bleeding for a long time... plus take a look at the volume since the bottom.. highest volume since inception at the bottom of the chart
TLTWe have a nice convergence on week chart. Normally, bonds start rise half year before recession, so I expect in next 2-4 weeks it will start rising.
1 target - 115$
2 target - 121$
3 target - 135$
But it`s long term investing - 180-360days, so better to wait when it will start rise.
$tlt What if this the Right shoulder?This could be forming a H&S bottom. Zero talk about it. Could reflation move be peaking? Are we in a recession or soon to be?
TLT Volume speaks volumes, pun intended.Don't forget that another man's trash, is another man's treasure. Volume speaks volumes, pun intended.
You know what to do...
Let's Not Be Blind to our Blindness..!Nassim Taleb's:
“My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.”
He also said:
"The only economic research that seems to replicate out-of-sample is the work of Daniel Kahneman on behavioral biases."
This phrasing reflects Taleb's critique of traditional economics and his acknowledgment of Kahneman's work on human decision-making, which can be tested and applied in real-world scenarios.
Taleb has discussed Daniel Kahneman's research on behavioral economics, particularly Prospect Theory, which studies how people make decisions under uncertainty.
A Wisdom from Daniel Kahneman:
Not only are we sometimes “blind to the obvious,” but also we are “blind to our blindness.”
We all have our own unique experiences and ways of thinking. This can make it hard to see things from a different viewpoint and recognize our own blind spots.
Here are some things you can do to overcome this blindness:
Be open to feedback: Ask trusted friends or colleagues for their honest opinions.
Seek out diverse viewpoints: Read books and articles from people with different backgrounds.
Challenge your assumptions: Actively question your own beliefs and biases.
By being aware of our limitations, we can start to see the world a little more clearly.
Prospect theory is a behavioral economics model developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. It challenges the idea that people make decisions based solely on logic and maximizing expected utility (total value of possible outcomes). Instead, Prospect Theory argues that:
Decisions are relative: We judge gains and losses relative to a reference point, often our current wealth or situation.
Loss aversion: People feel losses more intensely than equivalent gains. A $100 loss might feel worse than a $100 gain is satisfying.
Diminishing sensitivity: The impact of gains and losses diminishes as the amount increases. A $10 gain might feel more significant than a $100 gain.
Here's how these ideas influence decision-making:
Risk aversion for gains: When faced with choices involving gains, people tend to be risk-averse. They might prefer a guaranteed smaller gain over a risky chance of a larger gain.
Risk-seeking for losses: When faced with choices involving losses, people might become risk-seeking. They might choose a gamble with a chance to avoid a loss, even if the odds are not in their favor.
Prospect theory has numerous applications in understanding human behavior in various fields, including:
Investment decisions: Investors might be more likely to hold onto losing stocks to avoid the pain of realizing a loss.
Marketing and sales: Framing promotions around avoiding losses can be more effective than highlighting potential gains.
Public policy: Policymakers can use prospect theory to understand how people respond to incentives and risks.
Is it possible to be wrong and right at the same time???
My answer is Valid Yes..!
look at the following chart published 70 days ago
it moved in the opposite direction:
Now we can see why Claude Shannon said: “We know the past but cannot control it. We control the future but cannot know it.”
Rolled (IRA): TLT Jan 17th 2025 Short Calls to Feb 21st... for a .28 credit.
Comments: Rolling out the short call aspect of my covered calls (See Post Below) a month for a small credit. Cost basis/break even in the setup is now 90.20.
The small consolation prize is that this keeps my break even right around with the underlying is currently trading.
TLT for 15.04 big bear attack is comingFor TLT, I just wanted to share my own ideas, which are not investment advice, about the interaction of recent geopolitical events and expectations, as a note to history.
In the pre-trading hours, I expect 88.3 with the opening and maybe 86.9 with reaction sales. Since I foresee a movement around 1.045 in terms of Euro / Dollar parity, I suspect that there will be a serious withdrawal with possible reaction sales. In the meantime, I will make a loss as I am in a long position.
TLT Treasuries Long breaks down under VWAP SHORTTLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent
uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023.
Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time.
Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20.
Relative strength trending correlates with price . I conclude, TLT continues to be set up
SHORT or alternatively TBT LONG . I will take short trades at weekly highs on a 30-60
minute chart until signs of a reversal are seen on the chart.
TLT- #TLT Long Idea- $TLT BuysEntry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone.
Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea.
Take Profit: Discretionary.
Bullish Falling Wedge continues on TLTBullish Falling Wedge continues on TLT. Inflation Data is screaming higher for longer, however the Bond Market continues to "prophesy" a Pivot from the Fed. Does the Bond Market see a massive Bank Failure Event in the near future?
TLT- Are rate cuts postponed? LONGTLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern.
Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising
to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT
and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value of
existing bonds with the implications of a rate cut postponed beyond June. The faster RSI line
has recovered to cross the 50 level lending further support to this long trade.
TLT to $200 by EOY 2025?This is a possibility for TLT brought to you by Goodtexture who is hoping you can appreciate this artwork for its noble character and enthusiastic reprise
$TLT bull flagCan long NASDAQ:TLT here...with a 0.50 cents SL per share
Hourly shows SMA support at 93.85
Daily shows SMA support at 94.25
TLT price action after FOMCMajor buying under 92.66 . The day closed higher even after briefly touching a new low.
Fed Chair Powell : Long-term goal is to move to a balance sheet that's mostly treasuries
Source : www.youtube.com
TLT Small upside before FOMCBroke out of a falling wedge pattern. Oversold on the 1hr. There's a great risk to reward ratio here. Set your stop losses accordingly.
Uncertainty still looms...
TLT very bullish energyI dowse stocks and this morning it told me to let the pendulum pick. This seldom occurs, but it went to TLT. It has very bullish energy. Idk if there's news of some sort, or what, but this will be a very large move probably within the next week. Possibly later today.
I'm not going to post a target because it seems too unlikely to hit the answer I have, but I'll update when things are moving and I can maybe get more clarity.
It did say this will be a spike up and reverse down, so there will be a short opportunity as well if we can get the high nailed down.
That's all.
Opening (IRA): TLT May 17th 88 Short Put... for a 1.08 credit.
Comments: Laddering out on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit at or below the cost basis of the shares I've currently got.
TLT to $90 by 3/22/2024TLT hit resistance at its' 03/2023 weekly channel and its' 12/23/2023 daily channel and is likely to move down to $90 per share by 03/22/2024.
