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TLT trade ideas

Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 23 - TLT - (7th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing Ishares 20+ Treasure Bond ETF (TLT), starting from the 6-Month chart. (For some reasons I read "Ishares" as "Israeli" XD.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Road_2_Funded
TLT wedgeTLT presents a wedge on a rising trend, this is bullish for risk on markets. As inflation remains sticky any report of easing inflation will cause TLT to break through this to the upside. Remember that if 20 year bonds rise, this helps alleviate the yield curve and drop shorter-dated bonds, this reduces overall interest rates. In a healthy market, longer-dated bonds should always provide more yield than monthlies, this is not the case for the last year plus because of the yield curve inversion. -Late June or July this wedge breaks to the upside -Rate cuts will follow -Either the market pumps into elections hard, or we start to go into a recession -I believe Biden will not allow a recession until 2025 due to elections
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Apollo_21mil
The Traditional 60/40 Portfolio ReimaginedThis is a snipet of a more extensive note on themacrobrief.substack.com This trend of central banks accumulating higher gold reserves also holds true on a global basis. This has huge implications for investors as foreign central banks hold lower US Treasury reserves vs higher gold reserves , it puts upwards pressure on US yields (Lower bond prices) and creates demand for gold resulting in higher gold prices. The Macro Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Traditional 60/40 portfolios are likely to suffer if this trend of replacing US Treasury reserves with gold continues. Traditional 60/40 vs Modern 60/40 vs 60/20/20 Stocks, Bonds & Gold Below are the results for a monthly investment strategy investing $250 a month from 1984 to today in both the traditional 60/40 stocks and bonds vs modern 60/40 stocks and gold and also a balanced approach which has 60/20/20 stocks, bonds and gold. The portfolio is rebalanced yearly. The tailwind in bonds from a 40 year decline in interest rates contributed to long periods of outperformance for the traditional 60/40 portfolio, however the other two portfolios of modern 60/40 and 60/20/20 both produced marginally better performance. Given the macro landscape developing from central banking behaviour and the uncertainty of inflation, interest rates, we could be entering a period where the modern 60/40 produces long periods of outperformance. Considering an allocation which diversifies bond holdings with gold could offer a lifeline for the traditional 60/40 and better prepare investors' portfolios to navigate the road ahead. Whilst the traditional 60/40 stocks and bonds portfolio has been the portfolio of choice for the global trends of the last 40 years, the trends emerging for the decades ahead especially the reduction of foreign central bank holdings of US treasuries and the accumulation of gold as part of their balance sheet means that investors portfolios stand to benefit a great deal by considering a switch from the traditional 60/40 models, with the most likely beneficiary being gold. Stay tuned for more insights on financial strategies, market trends and macro insights from The Macro Brief.
NASDAQ:TLT
by TheMacroStrategist
TLT Is Coming Into Key Support Within A Corrective DeclineTreasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and continuation higher back to 2024 highs. Just keep in mind that bullish confirmation is only above channel resistance line near 92.00 region, while invalidation level remains at 82.45.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ew-forecast
1
Opening (IRA): TLT July 19th 83/August 16th 83 Short PutsComments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August. July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long duration trade that would potentially take time to work out, but ... yeesh, the weakness. Will look to roll out the most at risk strikes I've got in July (at the 86) and August (at the 85) at some point ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
BONDS ARE THE WAYRight now rates have probably peaked or are close to peaking I strongly believe vehicles like NASDAQ:TLT or AMEX:TMF provide some of the best risk reward for a long swing trade for the next few months. TLT is especially attractive due to its Yield being over 4% at this time. If any fear of recession comes into play over the next year these trades will fly. Although you could buy calls I think holding the ETF is the trade since the yield is there for those who simply hold long. I also prefer TMF for large percentage gain since it removes the worry of Theta decay and allows you to average into a position over time. Happy trading!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by bdsg95
$TLT, the last bond rally before bear market continuation?NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92. Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts. After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish bonds after the $98 resistance gets tagged. I also think we'll see new lows (I know this is very opposite of what most people think will play out). This is also likely the catalyst that brings down the stock market (rates rise more than people think is possible). Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLT
by benjihyam
7