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TLT trade ideas

ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS TLT BONDS: 20 AUG, 2024© Master of Elliott Waves: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M. Bonds, Wave (iii)-orange is unfolding to push higher; it is subdividing into wave ((2))-blue, and appears to be unfolding to push lower. Specifically, it is developing as a Zigzag, labeled (A)(B)(C)-orange, wave (B)-orange is nearing completion of its role. Finally, wave ((3))-blue could return to push higher. While price must remain above 91.47 to maintain this view. A break below this level would indicate an alternate wave count scenario is in play.
NASDAQ:TLT
by ShaneHua
2
Time for TLTThe 20-year Treasury Bond ETF 'TLT' is looking good now that the Federal Reserve has stated that an interest rate cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to fall. The fact that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is now using dovish language and naming dates for potential cuts is cause enough to consider shifting some money to bonds. The swift selloff in stocks earlier this week is also good reason to be cautious in equities and bullish bonds, still waiting to see if that was a one-time dip or the start of something more prolonged. We also have rising unemployment, record personal debt and increasing rates of delinquency in auto loans that signal potential recession ahead. At this point it's not a question of 'if' rates cuts and money printing are going to happen, but 'when', especially if we see markets turn back down in a significant way and/or a continued move higher in unemployment. TLT has recently broke above a short-term resistance line as the 20-year treasury bond yield broke below a short-term support line which shows how inversely correlated they are. If we can expect bond yields to come down via Fed rate cuts then we can expect bond prices to go up. TLT is the most popular bond ETF and I've personally been buying ever since price fell below $100 last year with the intention of building a large position ahead of inevitable rate cuts. I'll stop buying when rate cuts begin and then ride TLT until it looks like a bottom in rates is in, and then sell the entire position and flip long stocks.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by PrepForProfit
3
TLT LONG TLT could be an attractive investment if the Fed cuts rates for numerous reasons. Price Appreciation: When interest rates decline, the price of existing long term bonds held by TLT tend rise. The fixed interest payments of these bonds become more attractive compared to new bonds issued at lower rates . Lower Yield Environment: As interest rates fall, the yield on newly issued bonds decreases. Investors seeking higher yields may shift their investments to longer duration bonds like those in TLT, which typically offers higher yields than short term bonds. Stable Income: TLT provides regular interest income through its holdings. In a lower interest environment, the relative stability and predictability of this income can be appealing. Lastly, TLT has broken out of what I believe to be an inverted H&S pattern. This is a sign of a potential reversal. I am expecting a big move to the upside from this stock due to the current economic environment around the Fed cutting rates.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by BlackSheepFinancial
TLT-LONGTLT swing opportunity as interest rates are expected to remain stable through September, and the market appears to be approaching a top near the upcoming elections. In such an environment, the demand for safer assets like long-term Treasury bonds is likely to increase as investors seek stability amid growing market uncertainty. With TLT's portfolio of 20+ year Treasury bonds, the ETF stands to benefit from this flight to safety, potentially driving up its price. This makes TLT an attractive option for swing traders looking to capitalize on the anticipated market volatility and the relative stability of bond yields in the short term.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by SPYDERMARKET
🔜 20+ Year Treasury Bond Market. Perhaps This Is The End US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence. But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities sentiment, with the S&P 500 index halving its year-to-date gains. Indeed stock valuations are looking increasingly stretched, raising the risk of a correction. One such indicator in particular is flashing RED - the relative valuation of stocks versus the debt market. SPX / ICE BofA Corporate Total Return Index In August this year, the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX climbed to levels last seen during the peak of dot-com boom, relative to an index that tracks the US corporate bond market. The gauge is still holding near those highs, despite the recent pullback in equities. The metric last surged this high in the spring of 2000 — and that was followed by a multi-year meltdown in stocks that saw the S&P 500 crash 50% between March 2000 and October 2002. SPX 50% Decline During 2000-2002 Another indicator that shows the richness of stocks relative to debt is the so-called equity risk premium — or the extra return on shares over government debt, which is considered a safer form of investment. The metric has plunged this year lows unseen in decades, indicating elevated stock valuations. "Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927. In the 6 instances this has occurred, the markets saw a major correction & recession/depression - 1929, 1969, 99/00, 07, 18/19, present," research firm MacroEdge said in a recent post on X (ex-Twitter). The so-called equity risk premium (earnings yield minus bond yield) recently fell to a new cycle low and remains well below historical averages. In other words, the stock market has become more expensive relative to the bond market despite the recent pullback. Meanwhile the main graph (quarterly Div-adjusted chart for NASDAQ:TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) illustrates perhaps right there could the end for U.S. Govt Bond Market decline, with Double top as a further projected/ targeted upside price action. Will all of that bring U.S. stock market to 50% decline like in early 2000s!? Time will show!
NASDAQ:TLT
by PandorraResearch
40
Opened (IRA): TLT September 20th 89 Monied Covered Calls... for an 87.83/contract debit. Comments: Parking some cap in TLT while I go about "summer things." Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta long put while having built-in short call defense. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 87.83/contract Max Profit: 1.07/contract (ex. divvies); 1.38/contract (with divvies) ROC at Max: 1.22% (ex. divvies)/1.57% (with divvies) 50% Max: .53/contract (ex. divvies) ROC at Max: .61% (ex. divvies); .96% (with divvies) These metrics assume that I'm only able to grab one divvy (i.e., July). It's possible that I'm able to grab July and August or July, August, and September, which will naturally increase the ROC %-age, but will generally money/take/run at 50% max after at least the July divvy drops. And ... you never know ... It's also possible that TLT might not cooperate and move back toward my short call strike and voila, I've got a poo pile on my hands.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.
NASDAQ:TLT
by benjihyam
49
Opening (IRA): TLT January 17th 83 Short Put... for a 1.55 credit. Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. Unfortunately, when I started laddering out, a March cut was on the table, but that has been pushed back to at least June and possibly September, so I probably got a little bigger in the position than I originally anticipated. That will resolve itself somewhat as shorter duration rungs fall off via take profit or roll-out (probably the former).
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines