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TQQQ trade ideas

Support and Resistance BandsThis is my daily analysis of support and resistance based on daily highs/low trends, and overnight highs and lows, and daily double bottoms. I look for the day to bounce around any of these line, and then look for a breakout. If I have a positive movement towards one of the resistance lines confirmed with ADX, SAR, and RSI then I will buy and sell at point of resistance. I will then look for a breakout at that resistance, or a retracements, waiting for confirmation and confluence before reentering the trade.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by dratzlogic
TQQQ Wheel of Fortune Modeling Although you can effectively model the P&L of 30 days 'til expiry at-the-money short puts, it's difficult to model "the other stuff" a trader would typically do with a short put that is in the money toward expiry (i.e., take assignment, roll out "as is," roll out for strike improvement, etc.). (At least, I don't have access to that kind of model or can't easily program one without breaking my brain). You can, however, run a small number of occurrences (relatively speaking) to see how the setup would work in practice, so that you can have expectations as to how much the at-the-money 30 day short put pays over time, as well as the frequency of assignment and/or ending up with an in-the-money that has to be managed. You'd naturally have to run this for months to get any decent idea of how the setup would perform over a larger time frame. (Most studies actually look at selling a given strike in expiries of a given duration on a daily basis, which would be a lot of spreadsheet). The basic rules: 1. Sell the at-the-money short put nearest 30 days until expiry. 2. Either close out the short put on approaching worthless (e.g., <.20) or run to expiry if in-the-money. 3. If assigned on any given short put, initially sell the 30 days until expiry call at the strike at which you sold the short put, looking to exit the resulting covered call at a profit.* 4. Since not everyone has "infinite cash," I'll assume a maximal deployment of 5 lots. As you can see by the chart, you can contemplate getting stuck in a particular rung or rungs for a lengthy period of time, reducing cost basis via rolls of the short call until you're able to exit that "leg" profitably or at break even. The ROC becomes almost immediately "less sexy" when that occurs, since that will potentially be "dead buying power" for weeks (and potentially months) at a time. 5. It's probably to one's advantage to have additional rules as to when and when not to pull the trigger on a given rung (i.e., implied volatility rank and 30-day implied), but for the sake of simplicity, I'm not setting out that type of rule here. Pictured here would be the first leg, at the 47 strike in the May 13th expiry, paying 4.25 at the mid, with a resulting cost basis of 47.00 - 4.25 or 42.75 if assigned shares on the 47 short put.** For purposes of the return on capital calculation, I'm operating on the assumption that the short put will be cash secured,*** which means you'll tie up 42.75 of buying power to put this on, with the resulting ROC of 9.94% at max (implying a finish above the short put strike at expiry or the ability to pull off the short put on approaching worthless prior to that). * -- In practice, this isn't what I do when confronted with an in-the-money short put at expiry. I look at (a) taking assignment; (b) rolling out the short put as is to varying durations; and (c) rolling out the short put with strike improvement to varying durations. I then compare and contrast what I would get for each in credit and generally opt for the choice that would result in the largest cost basis reduction. For example, I'm not going to take assignment to sell a call against for less credit than I could get by just rolling the short put out for duration. ** -- It doesn't look like you get much buying power relief on margin anyhow, at least with my broker. The buying power reduction for the 47 short put on margin appears to be 35.26 -- 75% of the short put strike. It's something, but not the typical relief you get on margin, which is about 20% of the short put strike. That being said, 4.25 on buying power effect of 35.26 is 12.05% at max -- a smidge sexier than cash secured. *** -- I can also see a potential additional rule or rules that takes profit between 42.75 (your break even) and 47.00 toward expiry as extrinsic in the 47.00 converges on 0 or potentially rolls out the 47 to a 30 day at-the-money strike when it's in profit. On a practical level, I tend to do this quite a bit, but it's involves rolling from an out-of-the-money strike to an out-of-the-money strike, which continues to leave leave me with room to be wrong.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
2
TQQQ 5/12/2022TL;DR - there is no reason to expect the bear trend is over. Price remains below EMA, with EMA rejecting every attempt. All recent bullish moves have been met with many sellers (note the extreme volume on relatively small bullish candles). Price remains in the bearish channel established at the beginning of April. Next level of support below the pre-Covid peak is at 18. Given the speed at which price moved through this area in Feb-Apr 2020, a medium range target of $18 is not unreasonable.
NASDAQ:TQQQShort
by nsjackson
$TQQQ Update$TQQQ Update So All 4 targets from my last post have hit and I have added at all of them. (I’ll repost the last one below) My average is now 36.94 and I’m looking for 49.27 for 33.38% profit. IF the CPI comes in hot tomorrow and the market continues to sell off, then my next target to double my position will be at 20.12. Be careful out there, guys… the market is insane right now…. One of the best ways to stay hedged is to be mindful of your position sizes and trade small…. Always make sure you have funds to adjust in case we still have further to fall…. --------- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
7
The PERFECT entry over the next 2 years.This is it. TQQQ drops between 50-70% on major pull backs once over 2 years or more. We are now at the bottom of one. It is time to pull the trigger and buy in weekly for the next 1.5-2 months. Long term support lines are perfect. Short term trend lines are lined up. We are in the pocket, set for a turn around. Stop loss at 10% from today and goal is 160% however, it will likely surpass its previous high and my goal is low. Will let go of majority holdings at 150% gain from here. Have a plan, stick to your plan. 10% loss on first buy in of 6-8 buys is small compared to 160% gain. We are sitting at a 1 to 16 risk to reward ratio if you can let some money sit for 1.5 years. Cheers
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by Reigncane