Opening (IRA): TQQQ July 19th 53 Short Put... for a 1.77 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put element to my TQQQ covered call on weakness.
TQQQ trade ideas
Opening (IRA): TQQQ June 28th 53 Monied Covered Call... for a 51.52 debit.
Comments: Re-upping in the June 28th expiry with a monied covered call, as there is no July yet. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to have built-in defense via the short call and to take advantage of call side IV skew.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 51.52
Max Profit: 1.48
ROC at Max: 2.87%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.44%
Will generally look to take profit on the entire setup at 50% max.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ June 21st 52 Short Put... for a 2.49 credit.
Comments: Adding to my TQQQ position on weakness ... . This is a bit longer-dated than I like to go with shorter duration premium selling, which I like to keep in that 45 DTE wheelhouse, but May has now only 35 days in it, and I like to stick to monthlies in all but the most options liquid underlyings.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max. I'm fine with being assigned, then proceeding to sell call against if that occurs.
Metrics:
BPE/Break Even: 49.51
Max Profit: 2.49 ($249)
ROC at Max Profit: 5.03%
ROC at 50% Max: 2.51%
Delta/Theta: 24.36/3.37
Opened (IRA): TQQQ May 17th 55 Monied Covered CallBought a one lot of shares and sold an in-the-money -75 delta call to emulate a 25 delta short put to take advantage of call IV skew and to have built-in pro via the short call.
Metrics:
Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 52.71
Max Profit: 2.29 ($229)
ROC %-age at Max: 4.34%
ROC %-age at 50% Max: 2.17%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals at a strike/cost basis better than what I currently have on should weakness present itself.
TQQQ 6/26/2023Keeping it simple
TQQQ Multi-time frame analysis
Daily chart – Long term
Pretty clean straight forward chart. In this one we can see the different stages of the market.
After topping out in Aug. ’18, price entered a “sideways” market between Aug.’18 – May’20. The “sideways” market was deemed an Accumulation stage after price broke upwards and entered Uptrend.
In May’20, price entered its Uptrend after breaking out of an Accumulation stage. During this time, you can see price respect the 200ema the whole way.
The Uptrend ran between May ’20 thru Nov.’21. After topping out Nov.’21, price starts to move sideways until it breaks below 200ema Jan.’22. This breakdown deemed the “sideways” market as a Distribution stage and confirms the start of the Downtrend.
Price has been in a Downtrend since and continues to make lower highs and lower lows. Facts that can’t be argued.
The price slide continued until it reached the breakout point of May’20. At this level it found support and bounced breaking above the 200ema and breaking above resistance and previous lower high.
Does this mean the Downtrend is over? Absolutely not. Why? This is the 1st time the previous lower high has been tested.
I will now look at some indicators to provide further confirmation.
The Stochastic indicator - has been Overbought for a while and it’s coming down while being at a resistance level. Bearish.
The MACD indicator - is crossing below its signal while price is at a resistance level. Bearish
Price rejection/ false breakout – Price was above the previous lower high price(Resistance) but has now fallen below it. This is very bearish as price is rejecting higher prices.
So currently we have the following: Downtrend + Oversold stochastic + Macd under signal + Price rejection
This equals to a high probability short trade. I will zoom into 15min chart for entry.
15min chart – Short term
Here we can get a closer look at what’s going on short term.
Price has been on an Uptrend (respecting 200ema) since May 5, ’23 and topped out June 15th 2023.
Here we can see the “Price rejection” we saw on the Daily chart and its a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern in the 15min chart!
As you can see, the neckline has been broken to confirm the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Entering trade short.
Entry: 37.30
Stop loss: 41.05, -10.05%
Target #1: 27.70, +25.75%, 2.56 RR ratio
Target #2: 17.67, +52.63%, 5.23 RR ratio
TQQQ Tech 3X levarged ETF LONGOn this 15 minute chart, TQQQ is in an anchored VWAP band and volume profile breakout.
Near to the end of the regular market, the RSI indicator ran from deep oversold. After hours,
NVDA reported a sizable earnings beat. The AI machine learning and backtesting indicator
forecasts and uptrend continuation. I will get call options targeting $58 for Friday's expiration.
This is a risky play, price trend could reverse and there could be no time left to recover from
that reversal. The rewards for the trade going right could easily exceed 100%.
TQQQ - Cup awaiting Handle ?TQQQ on a weekly chart in 2021 ascended into a falling wedge. As part of the falling wedge,
it started the downside initial part of a cup and handle pattern. The reversal occurred 11
months ago with the upside completion of the cup back to 57.5 In the typical cup and handle,
the handle then forms in a 50% retracement of the height of the cup. the cup height measures
44.5 over a period of about 9 months. Notably relative volumes peaked at the bottom of the
pattern. Once the retracement is complete, bullish continuation should occur to the extent of
the height of the cup above the lip. That is to say an uptrend from 57.5 adding 44.5 to get to
102 more or less. But first the retracement and reversal must occur.
Accordingly, if this is an incomplete cup and handle, it forecasts a retracement of 44.5 divided
by 2 or to about 38 as shown by the Fib retracement tool. After that price must reverse
then overcome the resistance of the lip of the cup ( 57.5) and continue to 102.
Overall, this forecasts that a bearish crash is in store for TQQQ ( as well as QQQ from which
it is leveraged). Time will tell if this pattern has given an accurate forecast. In the meanwhile,
I will watch for signs of QQQ topping out on the weekly time frame after the same signs on
lower time frames. The alternative view is that TQQQ is building an even bigger cup
right now with the lip at about 88 when the price had a high pivot down on November 22, 2021.
So, do you see a bigger or smaller cup pattern or none at all?
TQQQ Bullish till its Not!The markets have given us some clear direction over the last few months, albeit we are at quite high levels and I would expect a pullback at some point.
There are 2 important clues here that are clearly visible on the chart.
The first is a continuous strong move up as illustrated in the channel. We can clearly see the supply and demand zones flipping once price is able to test important support and resistance.
The second is a pullback coming into the lower end of the channel, as well as the s/r flip from the previous range.
We are clearly still in an overall bull market, so it would be a terrible place to short below the lows, for the time being.
Until additional data points to lower prices, my bias will have to remain long. A break of market structure would change my bias and I will update my bias from there.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 19th 52 Short Put... for a 1.54 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put component to my TQQQ covered call (See Post Below) here on weakness.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect/Resulting Cost Basis In Stock: 50.46
Max Profit: 1.53/$153
ROC at Max: 3.03%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.52%
Will generally look to take profit on the covered call component at 50% max and the short put component at 50% max.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 19th 53 Monied Covered Call... for a 50.93 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 delta strike against a one lot to emulate a 25 delta short put with built-in defense via the short call.
The call IV skew that I was looking to take advantage of before has evaporated somewhat, with the same strike short put paying about the same (1.94) as the max profit potential of this setup. Since I'm doing this in a cash secured environment, I don't get much BP relief over doing the monied versus the short put, so am really doing this setup for its "built-in defense" that I don't have to add in later, as I would should I want to defend a short put.
Will generally look to take profit on the entire setup at 50% max, look to roll out the short call at 50% max, and add at intervals, assuming I can get in at lower risk strikes.
Metrics:
Cost Basis/BPE/Break Even: 50.93
Max Profit: 2.07
ROC at Max: 4.06%
ROC at 50% Max: 2.03%
Sell QQQI bought TQQQ PUTs yesterday and today to play the QQQ sale.
On March 1, we reached a new high.
Since October 26, 2023, TQQQ has doubled, a blast seems to have arrived.
RISK MANAGEMENT
Initial target 1% of my capital as short selling is very difficult.
Transaction risk 0.5% of my capital as this is the only element I can control in trading. That's why I buy PUTS.
Multiples R forecast 2.05R but the market will decide!
You can't make this stuff up.You seriously can't make this stuff up. Whatever happens in November--whoever wins the election, unless the country literally falls apart (and even then, who can say this would end?)--A presidential election is always followed by a sense of certainty for the next 4 years, massive spending, and massive money printing. What else can we say.
Not financial advice. Not a bet, not a gamble, just an observation about history rhyming.
TQQQ Technical Analysis - Breakout and Key LevelsTechnical Breakout:
On November 13, 2023, NASDAQ:TQQQ experienced a significant structural shift with the breach of the $40 resistance level. The subsequent bull run in the tech sector propelled NASDAQ:TQQQ to a peak of $61.22 on February 12, 2024.
Fibonacci Retracement:
After reaching the peak of $61.22 on February 12, 2024, NASDAQ:TQQQ made an attempt to pull back, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $53.18. However, the retracement was not sustained, and NASDAQ:TQQQ returned to the previous high of $61.22 on February 23rd.
Current Situation:
As we await the market open on Monday, NASDAQ:TQQQ stands at a crucial juncture following the recent retest of $61.22.
RSI Divergence:
Since January 24th, we've observed RSI divergence, indicating a discrepancy between the price action and the strength of the trend. This could be a crucial signal, suggesting a potential shift in momentum that traders should closely monitor.
Upcoming Events :
This week brings important economic indicators:
Monday: Japan Inflation Rate
Tuesday: GfK Consumer Confidence and USA Durable Goods Orders
Wednesday: USA GDP
Thursday: USA PCE and Personal Spending
Friday: ISM Manufacturing
Market Expectations:
Anticipations are focused on the USA GDP, expected to perform worse than forecasted . This could influence market sentiment and potentially impact NASDAQ:TQQQ 's performance.
Forecast:
Given the current technical setup, RSI divergence and the upcoming economic events, there is a likelihood that NASDAQ:TQQQ could move towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level of $50.69 by Friday, March 1st. Traders should closely monitor developments and be prepared for potential volatility.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own research and consider risk factors before making any investment decisions.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 19th 50 Monied Covered Call... for a 47.75 debit.
Comments: Dabbling a smidge in the leveraged ETF due to its high IV (56.3% 30-day).
Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate a 25 delta short put, but with "built-in" defense via the short call, which can be rolled down, out, or down and out to reduce cost basis and setup break even.
As usual with the sort of thing, will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get into setups that have a cost basis lower than this starter position.
Metrics:
BPE/Break Even: 47.75/share
Max Profit: 2.25 ($2.25)
ROC %-age at Max/50% Max: 4.71%/2.36%
it's a new dawn, it's a new day...At least these days there will be a new high in NASDAQ:TQQQ thanks to AI and the outstanding results from $NVDA.
This new bull flag will take ud to 64.20 level.
SELL QQQI bought TQQQ PUTs today to play the QQQ sale.
Since 26 October 2023, the TQQQ has doubled , a breath seems to have arrived.
In addition, inflation was slightly higher than forecast today.
Finally, my technical indicators are all overbought.
TQQQ Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 021724Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 423.60% level
3) Touched 61.6/423.60%
Chart time frame : D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : D
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the bottom
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
i dont like this setupI don't like this setup. The recent increases we've seen are just to reach the edge of a wedge, which is the classic movement before a fall, and the wedge has a descent of 25%.
so, be careful!
Bull or Bear?Today, the price broke above the support line of the ascending wedge at $54.30. This is a normal occurrence, and if the trend is bearish, we should anticipate a contraction in the coming week. The creation of this structure occurred before a symmetrical triangle, so that wedge is likely to be invalidated. I believe we are in for an interesting week with upcoming earnings calls, and the price is poised to break the entire structure, reaching new highs
Long TQQQUpper target of 52.92 in line with Bollinger band and a stop at the 55 period vwma offers a r/r roughly equal.
Trading a Choppy MarketPer request, someone asked to share my strategy and how / why I enter/exit trades.
I decided to be specific and applicable to the current market sentiment and discuss how I trade “choppy markets”.
My personal rules for trading choppy markets are:
1) No options, shares only
2) GTFI and GTFO ASAP
3) Only trade when there is a support or resistance respected
4) Trail once you are in decent profit!
Other points:
Some things I did not elaborate in the video but I think are important to touch on and one of the reasons I avoid options are, there is a huge decay that comes with ranging markets on options. I have went really ITM on options lately and I noticed the profits are equivalent to that of shares by the time the stock finally decides to move. Thus, I am risking quite a lot by the inherent decay in options vs just taking the raw share trade.
And I forgot to disclose in the video, but I half my position at the next resistance level. Unfortunately today we just traded between 2 support and resistance levels, so there was no really halving to be had, but that is the general rule of thumb. Halve the position at the next resistance and trail.
Leveraged Shares vs Options
Another point that I missed in the idea is, Leveraged ETFs, to which is the instrument I traded today and describe in this idea, do have a degree of decay associated with them. However, for daytraders this decay is not noticeable. It will only become noticeable and costly if you chose to hold these shares for greater than a 1 month period, as the decay tends to transition with the month turnover and on any massive move that goes against the share (for example, if you are long via UPRO or TQQQ and we see a 5% sell in 2 days, it will take UPRO and TQQQ longer to catch up to QQQ and SPY because that massive sell just cost the management firm a lot of money on that position (it’s a very simplistic way of looking at it and its much more complex than this, but for ease of explanation, I will use this haha).
To put it in perspective, here is TQQQ next to QQQ on the day:
You can see, there is no observable decay from the chop. If you bought in off open and held till mid day or EOD, you would be able to get out for flat or even a profit if you exited right at the new high.
Now if we look at an ITM 1 DTE option, here is the chart for today:
You can see that the option never retraced the daily high, despite QQQ doing so two times, in fact even breaking it at end of day. It is because the decay impacts options, especially shorter dated ones.
Now you can mitigate against this by going further out in expiries, but the cost of entry into those options increase and the risk of losses also increase, to the point of making your stop outs more costly than had you done a leveraged share position. As well, going further out in expiry doesn't stop the decay from chop, it simply 'mitigates it'. Chop will not destroy a leveraged share, the only two things that will destroy a leveraged share are
a) Time > 3 to 6 months, share depending and
b) Moves against the share > 3 % to 4% on the underlying in a short period of time (i.e. 1 to 2 days).
That said, the gains on options can be better than the gains on shares, its just it comes with a risk. So it is important to weigh your prerogatives, account size and risk tolerance when deciding on these things.
That also said, there are many other things to trade other than leveraged shares. For example, NYSE:AI is an affordable ticker for new share traders, NASDAQ:RIVN , as well as NASDAQ:LCID and if you are Canadian, BA Canadian leveraged shares, though I admit I haven't tried to short sell these yet so not sure if they are easy to borrow.
Concluding remarks
That concludes the idea and request. If you have any questions, as always, leave them below.
Safe trades everyone and take care!
Bullish on TQQAs you can observe in the TQQ chart, the market is currently approaching a zone containing numerous open gaps.
The 61.8% retracement of the downtrend since November 2021 aligns precisely with the high on March 29, 2023.
We anticipate that the TQQ price will reach into this range, implying a potential increase of over 25% from today's quotation.
TQQQ - Leveraged QQQ rising after reversal LONGOn the highly reliable weekly chart, price was under the Ichimoku cloud since April 2022
putting in a couple of bear flags on the way down while first getting support two standard
deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and then one standard deviation showing
increasing strength finally crossing above the mean VWAP in May then with a retest and bounce
in late October while forming a bull flag. The breakout in the past month suggests another
leg up is underway with a potential of the same magnitude as the flagpole in the current
pattern. If accurate this could lead to a price of $68 by next July or 70% higher than
the present over 7 months. I will take a trade of 10 call options with a strike of $ 65.00 for
a July expiration. Each time the stock price rises by $5.00 I will close one of the options
yielding a tiered liquidation along the way to collect profit.
