Looking to go long TQQQ soonMonthly stochastic for TQQQ and price are low.
Weekly stochastic is currently overbought after 6 weeks of buying. Waiting for things to selloff, then looking to go long at the right price.
Setup to follow.
TQQQ trade ideas
TQQQ , LONG ( TFSA ACCOUNT ) Back in at end of day after getting stopped last one .
30.89 in
Stop 27.83
Pt 1 - 33.95, sell 1/6 , raise stop to half risk
Pt 2 - 37.02 , sell 1/6 , run balance
looks like gap down and bounce could go both wayswere off the lows for the session in the nasdaq, nq1!, and ndx, and creating a slightly higher low than yesterday. we have retested sss moving average, and nearly crossed signal to the upside. if we fall beneath pivot i would look toward sss supply area, and lower horizontals. if we stay above pivot and TRAMA i would look for upper horizontals.
a couple scenarios for critical resistancethere are a couple scenarios for the critical resistance weve just about come up to on the l nasdaq. i think were above pivot, and where we start out friday will define next weeks activity. if we hit that resistance sss moving average, and we fall beneath the pivot forming bearish divergence daily rsi i think were headed for daily consolidation. if we breech that first upper horizontal embedding bolinger bands and treating the crucial area as support i think were in for continuation until rsi comes out of overbought.
Triple EMA Study for TQQQThe 9,18, and 27 period EMA showed that there was strength in today's market after breaking out of not one, but two price channels recently.
nasdaq consolidating above pivotweve hit overbought on the hourly, and nasdaq has consolidated above a pivot point marked out by the lower end of that early june range from the last rally. if we break down below that pivot i would look to bounce on one of the lower horizontals as support, and if we stay above that pivot i would target those upper horizontals until were overbought on the daily.
nasdaq on the verge of breaking outthe nasdaq 100 is showing that it can reach for the highs, and is on the verge of breaking out above major resistance to levels not seen since early june. continuation seems likely, and i have critical levels of support and resistance marked out as horizontal lines where it may pause, or bounce. sss is green and qqe is long. if we get over one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal above, and if we break below one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal below.
TQQQ UptrendLong term it looks great. With the addition of Elliot wave patterns, even in the short term it looks promising. We have witnessed the bottom already. Time to restock on the juicy TQQQ.
looks like the bounce may be oversss signal has gone back to red kn the hourly, and if we loose mid 28s were probably headed for mid 26s. if we regain the uptrend holding mid 28s and closing over low 29s id imagine we will revisit those premarket highs hitting 30 soon.
TQQQ , LONG ( Swing account ) End of day entry on same price action but only much smaller size than earlier attempt
*took out prior two lower highs and 50 sma takeback
Entry - 28.49
Stop - 26.59
PT1 - sell 1/4 at 1R , raise stop to half risk
PT2 - sell 1/4 at 2R
then trend follow balance and add when applicable
Risk to account 0.5%
TQQQ , LONG ( TFSA ACCOUNT ) This is a slower account that I am using a portion of my TFSA for , the backtest method is to sell 1/3rd at 2R but I am changing this to get more proactive on taking profits , this is its second trade of 2022 and my first trade was a loser but honestly should not have been . The stop was too far imo and I still had a 2R de-risk point .
So , I am doing something similar to my swing account and having a 1R and 2R profit target but instead of selling 1/4 , I am going to sell 1/6 each time . This way a fully de-risked position will still leave me with 2/3rds of my shares . This account focuses entirely on TQQQ that's all it trades and in a good environment it can compound pretty nicely . It is back tested quite extensively , where I manually go over the chart to log the data and compiled about 12 years worth of trades and various different trade management structures , one thing worth noting is that the TQQQ had lots of periods where it made all time highs though these 12 years and I have not tested it through long periods of market underperformance . However , just the same with my swing account , this is precisely why we de risk or at least try to ;)
It has had periods in the last 12 years of data where I have had 6 losers in a row , 5 is more common . Largest amount of winners in a row is 7 .
There is not a huge amount of difference between this TQQQ TFSA account vs my swing account but it takes way less trades and takes much heavier positions , I originally used the whole account to take a position but I have since changed this to 3% risk vs AUM because I know the most lost trade in a row was 6 . So based on the last 12 years , that's a max 12 % account drawdown which is pushing the limits of where the math of what it takes to recover starts to work against you .
Ok so there is a quick explainer of why I have so many TQQQ trades of late lol , I like TQQQ ~
Oh yea , I am pretty sure that a TFSA account is similar to IRA for us Canadians btw for those wondering ...
Entry - 28.43
Stop - 26.57
PT1 -30.31, sell 1/6 , raise stop
Pt2 - 32.18, sell 1/6 , stop same
run balance ..
TQQQ to 35Two Ways I want to play this move if it happens
1) I expect until Wednesday 7/27 that we are going to remain balanced between roughly 27 to 32
IF we get that clean break to the upside hard and fast (giggity) then I want to be looking to play that 35 to 36 rejection short. I am likely to swing this move, maybe day trade! but I will have to see what its looking like if it sets up. Leaning more towards a swing trade over next day or two
2) I want below 28.57 to pick up my first long entry. If we dip to 26 I will add once more to swing the contracts into that 35 short entry I am targeting
This is only IF we set up with price holding that 26 to 27 area of support. If that is broken and held below this plan is invalid as the overall market is going lower and shorts to the downside would be in play at that point
TQQQSince this short reversal I set up a breakout to the next trend level up. I set an additional correction at the top range to retest the new point of control. Seeing how this plays out. Enjoy
its time to talk about an intermediate or longer term bottomthis ideais simple. if we hold $20, we will break above $56.89 closing the gap left over from april 4th. what could be better? the doomsayers and prognosticators are all pointing toward recession, but where do you see the pain? its all in the past, and the worst may be behind us. only time will tell, but if this face ripper of a rally continues, bears will be trapped and tutes, mm, smart money will be long (if they arent already).
TQQQ and Market BottomMACD & RSI crossed up on a weekly, price action confirms reversal, long till resistance!
TQQQ , LONGTaking an early position here in an attempt to acquire more shares while respecting normal risk with 50 ma as a line in sand for risk .
We are very early here but the difference in shares for a position with stop vs 50 compared to LOD is considerable and if this move up works we should stay above the 50 ma too ...
Pros are that we made it above prior 2 lower highs , which I would say is huge if we can get some follow through .
We also made it above the 50 ma on QQQ but now also on TQQQ now which was lagging...
Cons is lower volume on indices , as I write we are below average relative vol on both spy and qqq .
But still , price is king and maybe we might see a later day volume surge to confirm things ..
Entry 28.49
Stop 27.98
PT1 - sell 1/4, stop half risk
PT2 - sell 1/4, stop same
End of day , may have to adjust position size smaller and modify order based on where we wind up , am over sized for a swing , completely acceptable for an early entry though and risk is only still 0.5% vs AUM , that's very important here .
TQQQ , SHORT ( but immediately out in aftermarket for tiny loss)Almost did not share this and it's kind of pointless because I made the choice to exit it immediately in am .
But then I figured that since I have made a point out of posting every single 2022 trade in swing account , that I should still post and explain my logic here. I almost kept it on but here's why I just got out .
My precedence for getting short here at close on TQQQ was that QQQ closed under the 10 and 21 ema and it is in a stage 4 DT cycle.
It is basically my responsibility to take it the wedge drop signal even if I don't want to here . I waited until the end of day , final 30 min is my rule for entries ( filters false signals well ) . In this case I even waited until the final 15 min and saw the bearish engluphfing candle that was also a wedge drop , and put the trade on. But by the time we closed , we pushed up that tiny bit just above the lower ema and that's not a wedge drop. Then I had to make a decison as to what to do . I realized that this is somehow the first time to my recollection that has happened to me too and I did not yet have a rule on how to handle the event . I'm sure it will however happen again so I decided to just get out and to make it a standard protocol for when it happens in the future . If I take a wedge drop , or wedge pop trade and the signal fades in the final few minutes of trading day , Its no longer a signal really, so the only thing to do is get out at that point . I did stay in SPXL short though because it still checks the boxes ( SPY has put in a death cross and subsequent wedge drop that is also below the 50 sma)
Anyways long drawn out explanation but there's the logic and the update to my rules for the future.
false break or trend changethe reversal pattern is in if we close above the key levels marked out. we have tested this sentiment a few times in the past month, but each time its proven resistive. if that pattern turns green and we close in a bullish pattern breaking out of this wedge to the upside daily id imagine were in for the upper horizontals, and if we stay with sss and qqe in the red treating this area as resistive id imagine it gets shorted back down to the lower horizontals. bulls really want to hold that orange line (high volume area), and bears want to move below it.
Daniel GrecoNext Steps:
1. Identify patterns on the top 5 losers.
2. Identify long trades that get stopped out too early.
3. Identify long opportunities that we missed.
TQQQ, SHORT Stopped out on my TQQQ long today and we put in a wedge drop so even though I may not be super confident in the trade here with recent strength hints from the bulls , it's still a downtrading market, we did put in a higher low but not a higher high and still important for me to simply take the short signal .
Entry is right at todays close
25.93 in
Stop 27.27
PT 1 , 25.01 , sell 1/4 , stop to half risk
Pt 2 , 23.79 , sell 1/4 , stop same
run balance if possible ..
Personally , I kind of feel like we might be transitioning from a down trend to a range .. and that we might have put in a bottom on the 16th of June already ?? Now perhaps with todays failure by the bulls , some sideways chop seems likely .
found double bottom, no break out yetweve strongly supported a level twice but each time we were equally rejected as previous lows tested as resistance, slightly trending lower woth green days in red territory. themost likely scenario is if we retest recent highs as resistance, and make a lower high compared to a tightwning range over the past week or more. 25.82 is a lever to watch for a bull break targeting 26.25 - 25.05 is a level to watch for a bear break looking toward 24.54
sss and qqe are now singaling green
