TSLA trade ideas
Using TSLA/NVDA spread to find cluesIn yellow is the TSLA/NVDA spread or ratio, and here it shows the jump off the all time lows with the huge price spike post Musk vote.
With spread charts you can gain clues on future price action based on the other ticker. For the continued TSLA bull case, we get a pull back in the ratio to form the right shoulder of the IHS and then continue upwards.
In that case as long as NVDA continues to consolidate or trend up TSLA will remain bullish too (and outperform).
$TSLA BOOM - Target hitNASDAQ:TSLA BOOM - Target hit
The Bottom of the implied move from last night's post was hit!! Hope y'all made some money
TSLA Hidden Bullish Divergence Observed!Please see my chart annotations. I like what I'm seeing with this moderate divergence, price is holding well relative to the lower trendline on RSI. There isn't as much selling pressure. If Divergence can maintain this relativity, then price has a higher probability of an upside move rather than downside. Price could double bottom in the low $230's and still hold a divergent stance. Plus! it's a Cup and Handle filled with Inverse Head and Shoulders, nice setup.
Earnings on Tuesday, Robotaxi unveiling on August 8th.
Thank you for your time, happy trading!
OnePath
Dageedoo Follower Request $TSLA close up #Internals You saw how this very similar W/double bottom on #61fib worked out on AAPL... This is a 50% retrace W... I prefer #61 retraces, but with TSLA im not surprised with some extra volatility. Go with the flow... 186 first level to break, 198 next stop. then if strong enough hammer on 198 200 critical level breaks 10+ and youre at 220 like AAPL hit and people profit take.
Below redline or Diamond mid point (176) idea is DEAD.
LESSON TIME; Critical level breaks can bring quick moves 10-20% in a few days. I'm always "eyeing" critical levels on "Big Name/Mega Cap" stocks... ie; FB 500+ , would you believe me if I was "eyeing" AVGO under 1500... you wouldve caught splits on that n NVDA with critical levels in mind (1000 crit level for NVDA)... 3 big stocks all breaking through with these methods is not as strong as some might think, short term yes, long term questionable. Not everything is a critical level/ price "number" and markets psychology help determine these, usually round, usually act as resistance or support prior, see AAPL W... 1 2 3strikes then through at the old stock game...
LESSON CONT; I have a very unique set of tools. Tools I have acquired over many years. Tools that make me a nightmare for women who want a man with a "normal" job. Tools like Fibonacci Retracements, Technical Patterns, RSI, Stoch, Multiple Timeframes (3Day is my fav), and Bollinger Bands with MAs. Be sure you find your own trusted tools. Because I will be here, I will find the patterns, and I will execute them.
-Good Luck - Prof
$TSLA Retesting Critical Support Range After Earnings MissIf you've been following the analysis, we've hit quite a few short-term targets...
NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:TSLA | So far, we've seen a 40%+ move from our entry at $145.
Targets: $180 , $200 , $260 , $300, $450
After 29 weeks of analysis with consistent levels, a plan for scaling in, where to stop, and that big-picture thesis - this earnings leading into the RoboTaxi event will paint the rest of this picture.
Now let's take a look at the earnings readout:
Optimus Development
• A significant new addition to Tesla's innovative portfolio is the development of the Optimus robot, which Elon Musk recently announced is slated for low production by 2025 and high production by 2026.
• Optimus, expected to be utilized internally by Tesla as early as next year, represents a leap into robotics that could revolutionize labor and operational efficiency within Tesla’s manufacturing processes.
• It would be great to learn on the earnings call about the initial integration of Optimus into Tesla’s ecosystem, its production timeline, and the expected financial and operational impacts of this groundbreaking development.
Autonomous Driving
• The Q2 earnings call is anticipated to shed light on Tesla’s progress with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities and the Robotaxi service. The delay in the Robotaxi rollout, while initially a setback, has allowed Tesla additional time to refine and enhance its autonomous technology.
• Updates about the integration of FSD into the Robotaxi design -- which is central to Tesla's strategy in autonomous driving -- will be of interest. Tesla's vast real-world driving data fuels its AI, making continuous advancements possible and setting Tesla apart in the race towards fully autonomous vehicles.
• Elon Musk's vision for transforming Tesla into a leader in mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) will also be a focus. With Tesla's autonomous tech, the company is poised to dramatically reduce transportation costs, making mobility more accessible and affordable. The introduction of the Robotaxi and potential partnerships with existing ride-hailing services could significantly expand Tesla’s market reach and influence.
Energy Storage
• Tesla's energy storage segment is likely to be a focal point of the Q2 earnings, following its impressive growth. In 2023 and 2024, this segment's contribution to gross profit notably rose, accounting for less than 8% of revenue in Q1 but potentially reaching or exceeding 14% if revenue doubles sequentially as anticipated
• Last quarter, energy storage constituted 10.9% of Tesla’s $3.69 billion in gross profit, a significant increase from 3.7% in Q1 2023. The segment boasts a higher margin profile than Tesla’s automotive operations, achieving over a 24% gross margin in the first quarter. Despite this impressive growth, the expected surge in Q2 revenue will likely not substantially impact EPS, due to the automotive margin stabilizing around 18%
• Additionally, the role of energy storage in Tesla's long-term strategy to create a more sustainable energy ecosystem will be examined, with expectations for clear plans on how Tesla intends to leverage its tech capabilities to maintain leadership in this high-potential market.
China Market
• Tesla's strategy and performance in China will be another significant topic in the Q2 earnings report. Given the dynamic and highly competitive nature of the Chinese EV market, Tesla is expected to outline how it is adapting its business strategy to address local competition and regulatory challenges. This includes detailing efforts to optimize its Shanghai Gigafactory's output and innovations specific to the Chinese market
• Interest in Tesla’s customer engagement and marketing strategies in China, especially how Tesla plans to compete with local EV giants like NYSE:NIO , will be high. Furthermore, Tesla’s approach to managing supply chain issues, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions that could affect its operations will be critical.
Earnings Estimates
Q2 2024
• Sales $24.7B -- down 1% YoY
• GAAP EPS $0.48 -- down 38% YoY
FY Outlook
• Sales $99.4B -- up 33% YoY
• GAAP EPS $2.18 -- down 49% YoY
Forward looking, the future looks bright...
Caution Advised Ahead of Tesla’s Quarterly ResultsTesla is presenting its quarterly figures this evening. The rally in recent months has been impressive - but will Elon Musk's flagship live up to the advance praise?
From a technical perspective, at least, caution is advised. We see an open volume-imbalance gap at the bottom of the target range. The market tends to close these gaps sooner or later. In our experience, they are more reliable than “normal” gaps.
In view of the technical chart situation and the enormous rise in TESLA shares, we are therefore bearish.
Please note: The stop loss shown is merely an idea. Experience shows that market movements at earnings are very volatile. It may therefore make sense to wait until after the figures are published before taking a position.
Best Instrument to Trade Tesla In The Current Price PositionBest Instrument to Trade Tesla In The Current Price Position
How To Trade Tesla Before Earning Report?
Tesla will report its earnings today after the market closes.
This will make trading more difficult for everyone considering that tomorrow it may open with a GAP UP or GAP Down.
I explained both scenarios and which is the best instrument to use for trading Tesla Today.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
How to Trade Tesla’s TriangleTesla's share price is coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern as the electric vehicle giant gears up to release its Q2 2024 earnings. Let's explore how to trade this setup effectively ahead of the highly anticipated earnings report.
Understanding the Current Trend
Tesla’s prevailing trend is bullish, following a two-legged recovery from the April lows. An initial burst higher in April was followed by a prolonged period of sideways consolidation. This, in turn, was followed by a strong rally in early July, pushing prices outside of the upper Keltner channel.
Recent price action has seen the shares consolidate once again, this time forming a small series of lower swing highs and higher swing lows, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern ahead of today's earnings release.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Earnings Preview and Market Expectations
Tesla's Q2 2024 earnings report is highly anticipated, with several key factors in focus:
1. Delivery Numbers: Tesla delivered 443,956 electric vehicles in Q2, surpassing analyst expectations of 439,302 but falling nearly 5% below last year’s numbers. However, these figures are significantly higher than Q1's 386,810 deliveries.
2. Revenue and Profitability: Analysts expect a slight year-over-year revenue decline, largely due to price cuts and increased competition. Q2 revenue is forecasted at $24.7 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to dip 41% to $0.46.
3. Energy Business Growth: Tesla’s energy segment is experiencing robust growth, particularly with record energy storage deployments.
4. Strategic Updates: Investors will look for updates on Tesla’s AI initiatives, robotaxi project, and plans for affordable EV production.
Trading the Triangle Pattern
Identify Key Levels:
• Resistance: The upper trendline of the triangle.
• Support: The lower trendline of the triangle.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Timing and Risk Management
Wait for Confirmation: Given the bullish context, probabilities slightly favour upside continuation. However, wait for a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support to confirm the direction.
Volume Analysis: Watch for increased trading volume accompanying the breakout or breakdown. Higher volume indicates the strength of the move.
Stop Loss Placement:
• For long positions, place a stop loss just below the breakout point to manage risk.
• For short positions, place a stop loss just above the breakdown point.
Target Price: Measure the height of the triangle at its widest part and project it from the breakout or breakdown point to set a price target.
Managing False Breakouts
To mitigate the risk of false breakouts:
Wait for a Close: Ensure the breakout or breakdown is confirmed by a daily close above or below the pattern.
Watch Volume: Higher volume on the breakout or breakdown day adds validity to the move.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Tesla Report May Strengthen Bullish SentimentTesla Report May Strengthen Bullish Sentiment
President Joe Biden withdrew his bid for a second term in the White House on Sunday. It's reasonable to assume that the stock market responded optimistically to this news, as US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rising by 1.08% to 5,564.41 – its best day since 5th June. CNN Money's Fear and Greed Index showed an improvement in overall market sentiment, moving into the "Greed" zone.
TSLA stocks showed even more positive momentum, gaining 5.15% yesterday.
Recall that on 2nd July we noted that the TSLA price:
→ Was still within a descending channel (shown in red);
→ But was showing strong momentum, having crossed the median of the red channel and forming an ascending channel (shown in blue).
Since then, the TSLA price has:
→ Surpassed the upper boundary of the descending channel, breaking out of the downward trend it had been in since late 2021;
→ Continued to form a bullish channel, reaching its upper boundary last week.
Can TSLA Maintain Its Recent Highs?
Bearish arguments:
→ The upper boundary of the blue channel acts as resistance;
→ The December 2023 peak around $265 could serve as resistance;
→ Long upper shadows (indicated by arrows) suggest bearish activity around this level.
Bullish argument:
→ The strong rise when breaking through the red channel. On 2-3 July, the price formed two bullish gaps, creating a wide range of $213-233. This range could serve as significant support in the future.
However, the decisive factor could be Tesla's Q2 corporate report (expected to be published today after the close of the main session).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
TESLA Potential Resistance Breakout At $269.83 23.07.2024Resistance Level: Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is approaching potential resistance at $269.83 on the 4HR chart, with the current price at $251.72.
Upside Potential: A successful breakout could drive the price up to $305.60, and a break above $305.60 may push it further to $351.09.
Downside Risk: If the breakout fails, the price could drop to $242.69, with further declines possible to $219.60.
Apply risk management
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$TSLA Implied Move for Earnings tomorrowNASDAQ:TSLA Implied Move for Earnings tomorrow
So the implied move for tomorrow is between 227 and 277, almost 25 dollars in each direction.
There is a bear gap above the trading range and to the downside we have a bull gap, the downtrend line that we just broke out above and the 35EMA underneath the trading range…
How are you playing this tomorrow??
TESLA 300 AFTER EARNINGS ? 3 STRONG REASONS !!
Strong EV Market Position:
Tesla’s electric vehicles (EVs) remain popular, with the Model Y and Model 3 ranking among the top-selling vehicles in the U.S. in 2023. Even as legacy automakers enter the market, Tesla’s success suggests continued consumer preference for its vehicles.
Cybertruck:
Tesla’s long-awaited Cybertruck could be a game-changer. Pickup trucks have high gross profit margins, and if Tesla prices the Cybertruck right, it could boost their overall profitability1.
Regulatory Credits and Rebates: As Europe tightens regulations on internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, Tesla may receive more regulatory credits (from competitors like Fiat) going forward.
Full Self-Driving (FSD) Technology: Analysts estimate that Tesla’s FSD technology could potentially raise earnings per share by $1-$2 annually through the end of the decade.
Tsla Is going to pop like a zitHuge breakout
Elon is going to announce a buy back program
Possible Gamma Squeeze
W formation with a breakout, MacD, Bounce of the 3rd STD of the BB's
Tesla BreakBreakout and retest over the longer term trendline bodes well for Tesla. Next major resistance is $300 range. Tesla has way too much going for it to remain down here for long. Totally misunderstood by most analysts. Its worth well over $1000 today!
Little bit more room to run BUT, Let The Mind Games Start.I LOVE watching the process of a stock bottom for long term or short term regardless of market condition.
Elon is doing EVERYTHING in his power to save Tesla, he has been canceling giga factories, cutting payroll and reducing prices. This is the only way companies that depend on lower rates can survive during times like these.
Tesla is here to stay but how far do we go???? I think I know the area.
My orange lines below mark the final zone I can see it in and if it break that, oh christ will it be bad to the black lines.
We are almost at the under valued area for tesla, buy now and on the way down.....
TSLA 5th wave TARGET 283/294 The chart of tsla needs to rally for its 5 wave peak and into .75 gann or golden ratio of 293.9 =.786 from this point I will issue a major cycle peak into 8/4 best of trades Wavetimer
TSLA: Buy ideaBuy idea on TSLA after the breakout with force the vwap and the resistance line by a big green candle follow by a large green volume.
tsla looks like'tsla looks like its forming a cup and handle, earnings will be approx 195 and then a bounce to 300 for robo taxi
Tesla Earnings downside and recovery for FSD Tesla will move lower and fill gaps to down side, run back up on momentum for FSD break resistance, retest, FSD will be fully priced in by October
Tesla UpdateIn my midday update last Friday, I mentioned that price has at least for now bounced off of the 0.854 retracement fib @ $236.82. It has yet to move higher or lower and my prior thought still stands. We're either in a mini-wave 2 or still in wave iv. I feel the prior is more likely, but the ALT (turquoise) iv is still on the chart for a reason.
As mentioned in a prior post, if this is mini-wave 2, then we should be targeting the larger 1.618 @ $299.56. If this is still wave iv then we should move towards the 0.382 retracement fib @ $230.06. I currently hold just 40 shares with the majority bought around $171. If price drops more towards the 0.382, I will probably buy more. If price continues to move in a standard pattern I will most likely sell about half of my shares @ the 1.618 and rebuy when the upcoming wave 4 is nearing completion. The key phrase here is, "if price continues in a standard pattern".
TESLA: Growth & Bullish Forecast
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the TESLA pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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No wonder it is overvaluedTo be honest I do not personally trade stocks and indices, but I sure can let you guys have my insight on it.
With a P/E of 61+ and a P/B of 12.2, Tesla is extremely above the mark where it should actually be.
This recent weekly bounce is the evidence that Tesla has gained above the real valuation and it might undergo a fall. Therefore, my opinion on Tesla is that it should go <200 again around 170 where the most recent demand area exists.
For those who trade it, you should be confident to short it but please I request again and again, ensure proper risk management!
