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UNITED STATES OIL FUND LPUNITED STATES OIL FUND LPUNITED STATES OIL FUND LP

UNITED STATES OIL FUND LP

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USO trade ideas

USO - 1hrLong USO, however price is nearing resistance in a potential complex corrective rally off the January lows. A new high in price on divergent technicals could initiate a pull-back. The nature of this supposed pull-back will offer clues as to whether the low is in, or if on final decline lies ahead. Decline - should it develop - could extend below 7.00. Given the February low was seen on a clear 3 waves down (labeled (x) here) I'm not confident in longer-term bullish prospects considering the Elliott Wave. Only a solid 5-up, 3-down holding support, and taking out the top of that initial 5-up would increase probabilities substantially in favor of a meaningful low last month.
AMEX:USOLong
by nick.holland78
USO - DailyUSO has bounced between the 23.6 and 38.2 retrace measured between waves circle ii-iii. This is a typical target for wave iv, although the complex expanded flat w-x-y was a beast to trade. Fourth waves are notorious for trading difficulty. I'm anticipating one more low to complete this long-term correction. Overlapping action off the lows is not suggestive of a major bottom in my opinion. Price may prove me wrong however. The target box for circle iv indicated on the 38.2% of this chart is reachable, but its not necessary for price to hit this target before turning lower.
AMEX:USOShort
by nick.holland78
The oil sell off isn't over yet.A lot of people have called bottom for oil but I am inclined to think that it still has room to fall. I think this last mini rally was a combination of people calling bottom and the third short squeeze (albeit a small one) since this time last year. Once the short covering is done the bears will take over again. Hop in short and wait for stops to start triggering when all of these short sellers are done covering and the bottom callers were wrong to continue the downtrend, throw in Saudi Arabia and how they claimed that they are willing to drop and hold at $20/barrel as long as it takes to ensure all of the companies with high production costs are forces to end operations, and oil has a lot more room on the downside before it begins a recovery.
AMEX:USOShort
by SDMarik
USO - 1hUSO is approaching the end of a major correction. This pattern may resolve in one more low (OML) into the target box as shown with green (v). The alternative, shown in yellow, is an expanded flat for wave (c) of alt circle iv. Regardless, the time for shorting oil has nearly ended, except on short-term swings or day trades. Preparing to build a long position with verification of a significant low. See USO - Daily analysis idea for additional detail. MACD and other momentum indicators should build positive divergence on the low, although positive divergence on all time frames is not guaranteed. Analysis based on Elliott Wave principles augmented by Fibonacci extensions and retracements.
AMEX:USO
by nick.holland78
USO JAN 17 7 LONG CALL/APR 1ST 8.5 SHORT CALL DIAGONALTruth be told, things like calendars and diagonals are best suited for a low volatility environment, but I'm looking for a bullish assumption setup in oil that offers me some flexibility over a larger time frame than, for example, a 45 DTE credit spread would (which is generally just a "one and done" kind of thing). As an alternative to a covered call, I'm going long-dated diagonal here since I can do it more cheaply/smaller than buying USO outright (although at 8.33 a share, it's pretty cheap to begin with). Here's the setup, although it's off hours and the option pricing is unlikely to be accurate: USO Jan 17 7 Long Call/Apr 1st 8.5 short call diagonal Max Profit: Undeterminable Buying Power Effect: $1.52 debit/contract Notes: You want to work this setup like a covered call, leaving the long option untouched as you roll the short option to rake in credit for the life of the trade, taking the entire setup off when the amount of credits received exceeds the debit you paid to put it on by some measure. Naturally, you can also continue to work the short call for credit all the way toward long call expiration as long as it remains profitable to do so. This is why the max profit of the setup is "indeterminable" -- it all depends on when you take the trade off and how much credit you've received for it up to that point.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines