USO bearish reversal (pitchfork analysis)USO reached multiple top pitchfork lines and is likely to start falling.
USO trade ideas
UnitedStates Oil Fund Strength This continued upward channel is showing signs of real strength here, id like to see what plan takes place here. a break of the channel to the north and well be heading back to 1k in the long term in my opinion.
USO, 10 Jan. Is the Oil price about to crash?Oil has completed a 5-wave move on 25 Oct. Oscillators and geometry suggest a decline.
Geometry:
Price got rejected at the lower boundary of the channel. The red trend line is a second resistance, connecting the previous low and the gap.
Elliott:
We can count an ABC (in green), which makes up corrective wave (b), in blue. If correct, we can expect a wave C to the downside.
Oscillators:
The RSI shows a strong bearish divergence. The MFI points downwards. Stochastic is overbought and due to retrace.
Correlation:
USO is -.74 inversely correlated with TLT, at support, and .71 with XLE, at resistance.
How to trade it:
The idea is to build short exposure between 57 and 60. The red and blue trend lines give us two excellent risk-reward ratios. If price continues towards 60 it is likely to form an expanding flat correction. The idea is invalidated if USO establishes support above 56.
US OIL analysisUS oil can make a bearish swing as its shows weakness at its long-term resistance here labeled as R1.
The overall structure is a bearish Gartley pattern.
This can be a risky setup as the overall structure of DXY is bearish in the mid and long term.
The last time we traded USO...
USO (US Oil ETF) - Support, Resistance, Trendlines - 2021USO (United States Oil Fund ETF) - 2020 to 2021 - Support, Resistance, Trendlines:
-Resistance Price Levels (colored horizontal lines above current price)
-Support Price Levels (colored horizontal lines below current price)
-Trendline Resistances (diagonal yellow lines above current price)
-Trendline Supports (diagonal yellow lines below current price)
note: chart is on log scale.
$USO IronCondor 72%PoP, 45% profit - gift of the day with 176IVRDon't miss the opportunity of the day!
Highest IVR ETF today with the value of 173!
Of course, -5 delta meaning bearish Iron Condor.
SAFETY ZONES: 200MA could act as support, bullish trendline too.
Max profit: $314
Probability of 50%Profit: 72%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 45%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$150
Req. Buy Power: $686 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 137-173 (ultra high for options )
Expiry: 56 days
SETUP : IC for , because IVR ultra high, for 3.14cr
* Sell 1 USO Jan21' 35 Put
* Buy 1 USO Jan21' 45 Put
* Buy 1 USO Jan21' 55 Call
* Sell 1 USO Jan21' 65 Call
SETUP: IC for USO, because IVR is epic high.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~150$.
Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.1db.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
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Oil Could Slippery Below 46.18 (USO)Traders have a great opportunity for shorts or even a long if 46.18 holds. Either way, that level is in play.
$USO oversold with potential bounce comingOil closed its 3rd consecutive day underneath the Buy Sell Band with a hammer candle pattern on almost triple average volume signalling a potential bottom. RSI(7) is also in an oversold state with a 21 handle and the price is 13% below it's 50 day MA. Both the Range Strength(20) and Hurst Exponent(100) are signalling the market is in a ranging mean reversion mode, which makes for a high probability entry signal for a trade back to the 50 day MA.
Nice strong pullback in USO, supporting at ema 200Currently, we are seeing the ema 200 holding strongly. With the new variant detected, we might see further drop if price is unable to clear above 52-54 level in the coming weeks.
The trend is still a strong upward trend. It is a good buy and hold area, but expect volatility in the upcoming few weeks.
USO - 60min inverse trampolines with daily 3/10/16 supportIf you follow Moxie setups, undoubtedly you've noticed a lot more
inverse trampolines showing up these days than regular trampolines.
USO provided two nice 60min inv. tramps. recently. I've highlighted
how one might utilize the 3/10/16 (daily) to "help" support these.
Multiple timeframes are a plus for these (inho). This is but
one approach to consider.
$USO looking to break recent highs...With the inventory draw, projected rising prices, this looks primed for a breakout...
USO: Down Down! ↘️↘️↘️We are expecting a decline of the USO until it reaches regions around $53.08. Here, a turnaround is expected and the price should rise again. In total, we see the market move towards areas above $65.65.
Oilyyyyy!
United States Oil Fund USO 60 - 65See USO potentially setting up for a move up to the 60-65 area. might add some in this micro correction, but more looking for the breakout over 51.25 as my buy signal.
more bearish under 48
not financial advice
USO: Bearish Formation! 🐻🐻🐻We still have plenty of room left on the downside within the USO chart. Our expectation centers around the assumption that the price will drop to around $41.29, before taking off and pushing towards $59. However, we need the price to stay above $39.27.
Happy weekend!
USO - bearish double topOPEC + just agreed to increase output until 2022, Gasoline stockpiles build up more than expected EIA report July 13. Look for bear flag to form on 4 hour. PT .618 Fib level or 47.75. August - Usually refiners shutdown and that means build up of inventory. The only bullish case I see, if there are major hurricanes knocking out supply in Gulf of Mexico. I am in 8/20 $48 puts at 1.5, current 4000 OI. Good Luck this week!
USO: TurmOIL!🪔🪔🪔The discussions at the tables at the OPEC+ conference do not end, and it shows. We expect the course to drop for quite a bit now. In total, the correction should end somewhere between $41.29 and $39.27, before new bullish runs set in. Once that happens, prices above $59.35 will be targeted.
Let’s go Bears!
USO $52 Support By AugustOil will continue to rise in price. As such, USO will rise as well. On 7/9/21 USO was able to close above the short term downtrend. Right now this is signalling a breakout for anything above $51 next week. Volatility will probably increase, but given the current trend, RSI and MACD, there should be a steady gain over the coming weeks as we near August.
USO: Waiting for the next entry! 🤠🤠🤠From the current level, we expect the USO to fall all the way down to prices around $40.56. Once in this region, the next bullish run should bring us close to $60. However, with the bullish price development of the oil market, there is a 45% chance of an early bullish breakout.
Follow us for daily analyzes!
$USO Set for Fresh Insights as OPEC+ and Delta Meet on ThursdayOil has seen quite a bull trend over the past year. But one might suggest it could see more if policymakers are unwilling to ramp production given the specter of Delta Variant lockdowns that may never appear. We may find out more when OPEC+ meets later this week.
Wyckoff Distribution - USO US Oil (S3)Idea for USO (S3):
- Wyckoff Distribution mapped.
- Wave frequencies synced.
- EURUSD drops... USO will follow.
- Cause and Effect Objective met.
- Law of Effort: Exhaustion gaps being formed, clear distribution pattern, negative divergences and losing the momentum.
- Speculate that the Cause and Accumulation was relatively short in this case, as Oil went negative - Operators had little time to accumulate, but had to take the opportunity during overwhelming demand.
- Currently in UTAD. Sell-off, SOW > Capitulation soon.
- Good time to enter with moderately bearish position.
GLHF
- DPT
It's not over until the 'Fat Lady' sings!I am still long oil.
Mixed messages - but I don't have a sell signal, and I don't have indication of a market sell off as indicated by my crash monitor.
There are offsetting data:
inventory builds
OPEC output volume increases
Re-opening economies (impact from general wage growth)
Potential upside from the US infrastructure Bill
Increased in gasoline prices (offset by supply builds)
Rig counts
