VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS forum
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VOO Some people have been asking us today if a stock market crash is imminent. We told them: historically, the accounts that lose the most money are usually the ones with the highest trading frequency.For example, the study "Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors" found that households with the highest trading frequency had significantly lower returns. Similarly, a 2019 study on Brazilian futures contract traders showed that 97% of day traders lost money.
This pattern holds across different markets. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) reported in 2018 that 74-89% of retail CFD traders suffered losses. A 2019 study by the Korea Capital Market Institute found that only 0.5% of day traders remained profitable for more than three years. Meanwhile, a 2022 Shanghai Stock Exchange report revealed that in 2021, 80% of retail investors underperformed the market index.
Conversely, the most profitable accounts often belong to those who buy stocks and then forget they even own them! Just our personal take, not financial advice.
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NVDA VOO Understanding the US 10-Year Yield and Its Impact on Equity Markets
For those analyzing equity cycles, a critical component to monitor is the US 10-year Treasury yield. This yield has an inverse correlation with bond demand—when bond purchases increase, yields tend to decline, and when bond selling accelerates, yields rise.
The Relationship Between Bond Demand and Yields
When institutional investors, central banks, or foreign governments purchase a significant amount of US Treasury bonds, demand for these bonds increases. Since the coupon payment (interest) on the bond remains fixed, an increase in bond prices results in a lower effective yield (or interest rate). This is because the yield is calculated as a percentage of the bond’s price—when price goes up, yield goes down.
Conversely, when bondholders begin selling off US Treasury bonds, their prices decrease, leading to a rise in yields as new bonds must offer higher interest rates to attract buyers.
Why Does This Matter for Equities?
• A downtrend in the US 10-year yield suggests that liquidity is increasing in the market.
• Lower yields reduce borrowing costs, making loans and mortgages more affordable.
• More money flows into investments, particularly equities, supporting higher stock prices.
• This often aligns with quantitative easing (QE) or other accommodative monetary policies that inject liquidity into the system.
• A rising US 10-year yield, on the other hand, signals a liquidity drain.
• Higher yields suggest that bonds are being sold, driving their prices down and interest rates up.
• Increased borrowing costs lead to slower economic growth and reduced corporate profits, which can weigh on stock valuations.
• This is typically associated with tightening monetary policy or a flight to safer assets, which can cause equities to decline.
Liquidity and the Stock Market
Liquidity is the lifeblood of financial markets. Equities, valuations, and liquidity all move in tandem—higher liquidity generally drives stock prices higher, while lower liquidity constrains capital flow and can lead to market downturns.
Key Takeaway
Always monitor the US 10-year yield, as it is a strong leading indicator of liquidity conditions in the US and global markets. A sustained decline in yields suggests an increase in liquidity, potentially bullish for equities. Conversely, a sharp rise in yields can indicate tightening financial conditions, often signaling equity weakness.
This perspective is not the sole driver of market cycles, but understanding this correlation can provide valuable insight into the broader macroeconomic landscape and its impact on asset prices.
ROBO America first policies are now confirmed, which has led to a significant trendline breakout today. Global investors have also recognized that the next four years will see accelerated development in robotics and automation industries. The target price has been raised, with a long term key resistance of 12x projected within two years by 2026, up from the current 5x
QQQ SPY VT VOO
SCHD VOO SPY QQQ QQQM The worst news seems priced in, and the market has shown even more oversold price volume action than expected. With key numbers coming in much better than anticipated, we predict this is a bottoming signal, likely leading to a rebound next week that's stronger and faster than the last two
SPX QQQ SPY VOO SCHG Some people have been asking us today if a stock market crash is imminent. We told them: historically, the accounts that lose the most money are usually the ones with the highest trading frequency. For example, the study "Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors" found that households with the highest trading frequency had significantly lower returns. Similarly, a 2019 study on Brazilian futures contract traders showed that 97% of day traders lost money. Conversely, the most profitable accounts belong to those who buy stocks and then forget they even own them! Just our personal take, not financial advice.