XLE Potential Downside IdeaI think we could be seeing a short term top in energy prices with a reversion to the trendline and potentially move higher into the summer.
XLE trade ideas
Elliott Wave View: Energy ETF (XLE) Wave 5 In ProgressShort-term Elliott wave view in Energy ETF (XLE) shows a 5 waves impulse structure from August 19, 2021 low. Up from there, wave 1 ended at 49.69 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 46.47. The ETF then extended higher in wave 3 towards 59.41 and pullback in wave 4 is also proposed complete at 57. The 1 hour chart below shows the internal subdivision of wave 4 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure.
Down from wave 3, wave (i) ended at 58.78 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 59.36. Wave (iii) ended at 58.50, rally in wave (iv) ended at 58.94, and final leg lower wave (v) ended at 57.94. This completed wave ((a)) of 4 in higher degree. The ETF then bounced in wave ((b)) of 4 which ended at 58.82. Wave ((c)) of 4 lower completed at 57 with internal subdivision also as a zigzag.
The ETF has turned higher in wave 5, but it still needs to break above wave 3 at 59.41 to avoid a double correction. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 57.79, pullback in wave (ii) ended at 57.23, wave (iii) ended at 58.03, wave (iv) ended at 57.75, and wave (v) higher ended at 58.35. This completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 57.23. Up from there, wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 58.62. Near term, while dips stay above 57, expect the ETF to extend higher.
XLE: Breaking Critical ResistanceFundamental Backdrop:
- Weakening growth/momentum; strengthening value
- Rising Inflation
- Beaten down energy names; oversaddled with debt (debt is good with inflation)
Technical:
- MACD building up cause and growing
- Relative out performance
- Approaching resistance with strength; with potential break yesterday
Adding here with tight stops
XLE - Short Term Bearish Overbought on the daily and reaching top of both daily and weekly channels. Not to mention printing one ugly bearish weekly candle. Looking for a pullback towards $51-$52 area but will need some market weakness to happen. 54.50 - 54.80 support will need to be broken as well and where I plan to reduce 50% of my short position from Friday.
XLE..Energy big week aheadPushing up against its 7yr bear channel.
I notice on a smaller scale the double bottom playing out since 2020 which I highlighted in white.
With this momentum from increasing oil supplies I expect we could breakout here
Energy sector will go into deflationary depression crash I thinkWe are on the edge of credit bubble bursting into flames lol. All this is going to be deflationary environment NOT inflation. You can't have inflation without credit. I believe we are on the edge of commodities meltdown cause by THE GREAT RESET of the world's credit system. Not the kind of reset everyone is expecting which is inflationary. This is going to be The Great Depression 2.0 IMO...
Energy Sector Showing Inverted Head and ShouldersAMEX:XLE
Scanning through the sectors I noticed something quite clear, an inverted head and shoulders with a possible retest playing out. This is supported by the laguerre rsi below. I'm expecting prices for XLE to go higher and potentially confirm a megaphone pattern.
Short on SPDR Select Sector Fund. XLEThat's right. Short on this one and we are right in a middle of a corrective zigzag on this one. we may have very transient and short upward transient movement, but then that will be followed with an honest conversation with gravity.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
XLE about to bust Started $XLE $56.00 calls for next week. Options flow is crazy bullish and nice chart.
XLE Big move pending?I have not been a fan of Oil for some time, but I can't ignore this price action lately especially after last week close. XLE has cleared a key pivot out of this multi-month consolidation. We may have a perfect storm of reduced production in the new green economy merging with increased demand due to a post covid surge in economic activity. These two factors coupled with the fact green western nations probably wouldn't mind higher pump prices to further push the people out of their ICE vehicles. Just speculation, but last week's surge in XLE interestingly mirrors last weeks move in TSLA. Higher oil/gas prices = more demand for electric vehicles. I would definitely create an interesting dynamic given that electricity costs are also exploding world wide. Something to watch.
$XLE Plan for this weeksolid orange are intraday actionable plays
dotted are take profit targets
Harmonic pts are for longer dated positions
XLE - A lot of accumulation under $50 since JulyAVD in white
Crude oil CL1! futures in pink
Notice the accumulation since the July low. The range between 51 and 47, shown as a darvas box, is now very clear.
Darvas would play these as breakouts with stops below the low of the box, but I prefer to bottom fish the low end of the range.
Energy flashing a buy signal (Technical Analysis)AMEX:XLE
NYMEX:CL1!
NYSE:XOM NYSE:AMPY
Energy stocks, crude oil, and the XLE energy ETF all flashing buy signals. $100 oil looks invitable.
From failed moves come fast moves, and oil/energy stocks failed an attempted breakdown below the neckline.
A few favorite long ideas: $LPI, $AMPY, $XLE, CL1 (futures), $XOM
$XLE - Getting crushed but looks goodXLE is has pulled back over 15% from its high. Yielding 4.5% now. If you believe inflation is not just transitory and in the reopening of the US into 2022, this is a good idea. I've never been a big fan of energy but their are several tailwinds possible to continue to drive this higher into next year.
XLE swings short over the POC if oil supportsShorter term swing, short could target the low of the recent range if oil is weak too
$XLE bounce with cheap OTM callsEnergy was the stand out sector today up 3.74% on good volume.. as we mentioned a few days ago it looks to have confirmed a double bottom and being the cheapest sector on a fwd p/e and price/book basis it’s a contrarian and catch up play some major players are getting into.. more to come here.. some upside OTM calls IVs are cheaper than ATM and HV..
Energy ETF May Be Squeezing Toward a BreakoutCrude oil and natural gas are rallying this week as traders focus on tighter supplies and the potential for a winter demand spike. It may create an opportunity in the SPDR Energy Fund, which has been left for dead despite the move in physical products.
Notice the convergence between the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the declining 50-day SMA. This creates the potential for a breakout.
Next, consider the lows of July 19, August 19 and September 9. These have formed a rounded bottom with support increasingly close to the downward-sloping trend line along the recent highs.
Third, XLE's MACD has been steadily rising during this entire consolidation phase.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has just crossed above the 21-day EMA. That could potentially indicate that short-term momentum is turning more bullish.
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XLE LongUpdate to previous XLE long. XLE following early reflation trade fractal in Q4 2020.
Invalidated without a clear bounce in coming weeks.
$XLE good to LONG XLE is in line with Crude (refer to my previous post.
Price is now siting above MA200 and EMA9 and just touched MA20 on Aug 24 before retrace down a bit.
Keep an eye on this one
Bullish island reversal with positive momentum divergenceThe SPDR Select energy sector ETF (XLE) is gapping up to kick off the week and creating a 2-bar bullish island reversal at prior support and with bullish momentum divergence. This could be exactly what the bulls needed to kick this prior leader back into gear.
No position personally, but looks good for at least short-term continuation.
