XLE trade ideas
Hourly positive divergence on MACDShowing bull divergence on energy with stochastic at bottom of range turning up.
Inter-market analysis NOV 🌦NOV is looking to head up as earnings approaches. Both the XLE and NOV formed running flats Elliott Correction waves.
Another Healthy Pullback in Energy ETF?Energy is the strongest sector this year, but is down in the last month. Is it time to buy the pullback?
This chart of the SPDR Energy ETF has some interesting patterns. First are the candlesticks from March 23 and 25: an inverted hammer and then a normal hammer. Both of these are bottoming patterns, which were confirmed when prices bounced in following sessions.
Next, notice XLE’s tight range as it holds $49. That level is also interesting because it was the weekly low immediately after another bounce in early March.
Third, consider the peak around $54 last month. That matched the close on February 21, 2020, immediately before the coronavirus crash. It’s not a surprise that level would offer resistance after XLE doubled from the lows.
But now the sector could make another stab at a breakout – especially as travel resumes in coming months. Cruise and airline restrictions have already been eased. Memorial Day’s on May 31. Just two weeks after that, California reopens fully.
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XLE 1 year cup can handleActually looks to be viable. I actually believe oil is on a progression upwards as a macro trend. It is an indicator that can be worrisome for the overall market, but If it drops to 45.83 That is the .5 for its wave 4.
Target 65 if it bounces from there. If wave 4 has completed at 47 then target 60 for Late Spring early summer
Energy's volume confirming trendTechnical Short-term Analysis
We have a new potential uptrend line drawn in the chart.
RSI is showing some divergence as it has reached the level from the beginning of February. However; I would take this divergence with a grain of salt, as it did reach Overbought levels and did not break the 40 level on the RSI (typical bullish behavior).
OBV has a clear uptrend, supporting the uptrend in price.
Trade Setup
Would sell a partial position if we break the ~new potential uptrend~.
Would sell the rest if we break the 50sma.
Hope this helps!
XLE Potential Gap Fill off of Trendline SupportWith the Suez Canal blockage oil could see further strength moving into next week as supply experiences disruptions (limited supply leads to gains in oil). XLE could see a continued bounce off the trendline support and move to fill the gap denoted by the "X"
Buying Energy dipTechnical Analysis / Trade Setup
There could be a trade coming up next week in energy.
The 50sma has worked as support 2 consecutive times, and could potentially do it again.
This level is also coincidental with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level & 2020 highs; which suggests this support level has more strength.
Backtesting Data
There is a very interesting discrepancy between stocks within the energy sector going on; where most stocks are above the 200sma, byt below their 10sma. --> From 1979 until today, there has only been 12 times where this has happened...
What did it mean going forward?
Energy was up 70% of the time looking a year later, with an average of 27%.
Fundamental Analysis
Bull case for energy:
Oil is priced above the level at which the average company can cover expenses;
Supply has declined with lower production and OPEC compliance;
Large diversified energy companies have strong balance sheets and access to capital;
The ongoing recovery of the global economy bodes well for returning oil demand
Bear case for energy:
Oil demand is still down significantly.
Valuations are opaque.
There is weak long-term stock price momentum.
~ For the full article on sector view, send a message and I will be happy to share the resources I have. ~
XLE - April - 56 PTLooking to find more support on 20 SMMA
Nice bounce off uptrend support
Looking for 56+ PT
XLE: Near Term WeaknessXLE good time to take some profits
1) quad witching on friday
2) st momentum weakness
XLE: Continues To Break Key Resistance BarriesThis is a continuation trade after breaking the first key resistance barrier, we have broken through a smaller one recently and there is one left. A good place to add to the position if it falls back down to the support (prior resistance) and when it breaks the next major support.
XLE energy hedge against TechWith rates rising, missiles dropping on other side world and inflation scare buying the XLE energy ETF is the perfect buy and setup if you're not invested in energy. The XLE is up over 100% since its bottom, and up more than any other sector for 2021 now. Oil is rising, and with what's going on all over the world it looks like that won't stop any time soon. This sector is on its 3rd month of gains for 2021 and not even overbought yet. March has 20% of gains left in it, and if it breaks out this triangle lookout. you will add another 20-40% on top of that.
I'm not saying this will go straight up but it has been the underperformer behind everything the past years, which is making this the ripe to be the best performer for 2021. I own tech in my portfolio but holding the XLE is perfect for a hedge if rates spike again wrecking Tech stocks once again.
clean energy is done for a while xle to clean break through channel resistence and 200 days MA and heading higher. TAN and FAN and ICLN etf correction to continue
OPENING (IRA): XLE APRIL 16TH 35 SHORT PUT... for a .93/contract credit.
Notes: With 30-day at 42.1% and expiry-specific also at 42.1%, going out to April (I already have some March on) to sell the 19 delta. 2.76% ROC at max. Just trying to keep theta on and burning. Trade management: run to approaching worthless or, if in the money, look at rolling out for a credit or taking on shares/selling call against (whichever pays more in credit).
