The next resistance zone in XLE is...Check out the weekly chart of XLE with a potential resistance zone to focus on in the coming weeks/months
XLE trade ideas
Revisiting XLE and the recovery of the energy sectorUpdate from a previous post: XLE developing nicely as the price has managed the get out of the range and yesterday we opened with a gap and there almost no attempt to push the price down and to fill the small gap. MACD's crossing is widening and the histogram is expanding as well. RSI moving to the overbought zone, but there is some more room for additional movement North before any correction. The energy sector is starting to recover more and more and demand for the ETF is rising as well. Volumes support the recent movement. My short-term target is $47.
The revival of Energy - XLE on the riseXLE has been in a range for quite some time with the fall of Oil price from the first lockdown. But as thing recover and demand for Oil is returning to somewhat normal levels, the ETF is starting to give signs of life as well.
RSI well above 50 and is moving slowly into overbought territory, but this means that there is more room for the price to rise.
MACD has made a crossover and the histogram is turning positive.
Resistance level circa 40 has been breached.
Golden Cross with Energy ETF at Historic LevelsThe SPDR Energy ETF had a historic selloff last year, but now it’s holding some key levels as an important chart pattern appears.
First, XLE spent the last two weeks of 2020 holding roughly $37.90. That was near the low from March 2009. Looking back even further, it’s also near a high from November 2004. That’s when crude oil began its major ramp toward $100.
Next, XLE’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) rose above its 200-day SMA last week: a golden cross reversal pattern. It’s the first time the fast line has been over the slow line in more than 2-1/2 years.
The fundamental picture could also be improving as the Saudis hold OPEC+ in check. There are clearly risks to crude oil, but the current situation could be starting to resemble 2003 with a strengthening global economy and weakening dollar. Copper, gold and silver have already rallied. Will black gold follow and climb the wall of worry?
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XLE: Divergence->left turn->slow burn uphill?-ST divergence in the fall- confirmation of trend change to at the VERY least follow the boring, ascending slowly yellow floor???????
-test of yellow trend again->slow burn
-bounce off 50% gap followed by BO, Retest, Resumption of Red
-BO-R-R off green, up to fill the gap from the crash and 83
-insolvency crisis in 21 to bring it back down yellow?
-gunna watch this one, oil is going no where
XLE looking bullish long term on daily chart, target 90So far we do have a 1-2 start coming off the march lows, could complete a micro 2nd wave pullback to begin the wave 3 move to the upside. Additionally, this could signal a longer term change in trend for energy, after the consistent downtrend for the past 5-6 years.
Disclaimer: The proceeding content is informational only and based on information available when created. It is not an offer or a solicitation nor is it tax or legal advice. It does not consider your financial circumstances and objectives and may not be suitable for you.
Copyright Rohan Karunaratne 2020
OPENING (IRA): XLE JANUARY 15TH 32 SHORT PUT ... for a .51/contract credit.
Notes: The exchange-traded fund with the highest implied 30-day on my board. 1.6% ROC at max; 13.0% annualized. Will add "rungs" in subsequent cycles (i.e., Jan/Feb/March) if implied hangs in there.
Xle pullback buy areaLook for xle to pull back to yellow area. Look to buy into at these levels of support
XLE Chart soon to break 100% FibSine the energy sector has been recovering for a couple months XLE and many other gasoline stocks have been performing very well. I expect to see XLE break the 100% and run to the next three pivots with volume.
Is the oil sector uninvestable? We don't listen to stories about a future no one knows we just simply trade reversals and continuation wave formations our model gives us. We highlighted the xle in late october and took the trade early november. Obviously the vaccine news was a huge boost and we had no idea it was coming but that's the beauty of markets- you don't know what you don't know. So we are uncertain if the sector will continue to move at this pace but until something changes we are staying long
Ingenuity Trading Model is an algorithm used in- Stock, Forex, Futures, and Crypto markets. The model is a Geometric Markov Model :
In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal sine wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions.
Our model focuses on the current sine wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement. For questions or more information feel free to contact me in the comment section or via private chat
Trade Update: Sell 25-50% and move stop to breakeven Ingenuity Trading Model- Swing Trading Algorithm used in all markets- Stocks, Forex, Futures, and Crypto
The model is a Geometric Markov Model :
In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions.
Our model focuses on the current wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement. For more information visit our website
XLE - Elliottwave analysis - ABC correction - dump and pumpXLE - It is within complex correction WXY and Y up seems in progress. The up move from last bottom was impulse cycle as wave A and correcting down in wave B. It can be sell set up with invalidation level above 36.90 with relatively small size. for abc of B wave down. Once B wave is over, it is good buy point for next up cycle as C wave.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
Rotation hedge with Energy ETFOk boyz, so you guys are strong believer in momentum, you've ran your backtests on US Sectors and fund out that with a roughly 55% probability the best performers of last year will be the best performers of the next year. So you are still long tech like crazy and believe the FAANG stocks will keep rising. However what does financial professionals like to do? They hedge part of their risk, they maximize their sharp ratio by minimizing volatility with diversification in uncorrelated assets.
What is your biggest risk right now? With a new vaccine on the way? => A big rotation of smart money from leaders (tech, healthcare) to laggards (Energy, Financials, Transportation, REITS). It's already happening right now.
XLE US is down 45% year to date, it is the ultimate laggard ! And you know what? Historical probability of worst laggard to move to the top five leaders of next year is 65%, odds are in our favor.
The ETF showed strong momentum last week with a nice weekly hammer candlestick with strong volume, this is a bullish reversion pattern. Let's wait for confirmation on Monday's open, if it confirms, we are catching the first wave to a nice ride up ! up to recovery and post covid world. The vaccine wont be massively available and massively distributed before mid 2021 I believe, HOWEVER the stock market is merely the second order of the real economy, not the first order! It is the acceleration of the economy, so as soon as the vaccine is being shoot the first person, the widespread reopening will increase tremendously.
Option 101 => acceleration = second order = GAMMA, we want to be long gamma right now => buy calls 3 months on XLE. To save some carry cost, i would suggest a strike at 110% of the current spot, this translate to a roughly 35% Delta. This is quite out of the money but i believe the volatility on this sector is going to up with the spot.
my pick : call 31Mar2021 strike 37. Delta = 24%,
Remember: this strategy makes sense if your portfolio is globally long tech, and please do not risk more than 5% of your portfolio value with the premium. This is not WSB :D
