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XLE trade ideas

XLE - weekly charts - mild consolidation before further failureLet us again look out on how XLE is shaping up (previous analysis attached for your reference) Price moving just as expected, as evident in the charts, we had support on $ 53.36 levels , which was 24th Dec 2019 low. Price closed at about this level over the last few weeks but during the week, this level was breached. Minor cycle low formed 27th Jan 2020, 2 weeks later than we expected. As we move ahead, the next minor cycle and the major cycle will be moving upwards and the intermediate cycle will start to curve downwards. Following Hurst's principle of summation, we could expect the price to try and move higher over the next weeks. So far price has been making lower highs and much lower lows, indicating downtrend. Expect a failure on any attempt tp move upwards and intermediate cycle bottom around end of March 2020. Larger trouble remains ahead near Aug 2020 end as we would be seeing a bottom of all 3 cycles together. Keep an eye on how these charts develop to maximize opportunities of gain. If you like what you see, share a thumbs up and follow for more updates Cheers
AMEX:XLEShort
by LoveForCharts
XLE - Short - pain continuationHi everyone, today I am reviewing. the energy index XLE on the weekly time frame. XLE seems to be following a 44 week cycle. XLE made a triple top formation from beginning of 2018 till about 2018 November ever since then it has got into a declining phase, consistently making lower highs and even lower lows. Price has recently breached the previous lows made in the end of Dec 2019, its probably confirmed my projections for a sustained downtrend. We can see that the downward trend line that we have drawn is now acting as a resistance of a barrier for price to breach. We can see the nuances of principles of summation as descibed by the legendary JM Hursts works in play. This we can be by price action, given the phases in which each of the short term, intermediate and long term cycle (indicated by green, orange and yellow colours). I maintain my short position on this ETF any upside a chance to go short. Look out for important resistance zones on daily charts to find an entry to go short. If you like what you see, please share thumbs up.
AMEX:XLEShort
by LoveForCharts
SPDR Energy ETF: Long-Term Breakdown in Market's Weakest Sector?We've earlier cited downside in S&P Oil & Gas Exploration Fund and Halliburton . Now we're taking a step back to look at the bigger picture on the SPDR Energy ETF . It isn't pretty for the bulls. As many traders know, XLE is the market's worst-performing major sector by a wide margin. A global crude-oil glut and mediocre economic growth are hurting crude prices. Throw on top of that heavy debt loads at many companies and weak quarterly results ( Exxon Mobil and Chevron today). You also have coronavirus reducing air travel. Finally, the trend toward ESG investing is already giving money managers less reason to hold traditional fossil-fuel companies. This backdrop has been taking shape on XLE's long-term chart. The fund had a violent drop in 2014 and 2015, followed by 3-4 years of consolidation. The S&P 500 broke out to new major highs twice during that period (late 2016 and late 2019), but neither time did XLE follow. That's a classic sign of weak price action. While XLE's weekly chart was neutral between 2015 and 2018, it's turned more bearish since last April by forming a series of lower highs. That's now become a descending triangle, with the potential for the earlier downward move to continue. That could result in accelerating downside with volatility rising. Options traders may want to consider favoring longer-term vega trades. Situations like this can favor buying longer-dated out-of-the money puts. XLE's chart at this point may have some support at the 2016 low of $50. However, when you consider the long-term nature of the breakdown apparently happening, a retest of the 2009 lows under $40 isn't out of the question.
AMEX:XLE
by TradeStation
XLE Ascending Triangle to be formed While the horizontal line continues to be drawn along the swing highs, and a rising trendline to be drawn along the swing lows, XLE is forming the ascending triangle pattern as a bullish information. The target could be taken at the horizontal line which also considered a resistance and a stop loss could typically be placed just outside the pattern on the lower band which is at roughly 58-59 levels. On the fundamental side, here comes the news as Supply threats push oil prices higher. Crude futures surged as much as 1.7% overnight amid threats to supply, but have now pared some gains, up 0.5% to $58.86/bbl. Forces loyal to Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar blocked exports at ports under his control, causing the National Oil Corp. to declare force majeure, which can allow Libya to legally suspend delivery contracts. Iraq also temporarily stopped work on an oil field on Sunday and supply from a second production site is at risk amid widespread protests. Besides , during 1/2 through 1/13 sessions, there were some bullish bets detected on the options chain that total valued around 1.32 million long calls strike from 61.21 to 65.21 expiring in Feb, March and Jun.
AMEX:XLELong
by Hunt-orbe-Hunted
1
Energy the only sector not looking overvalued right nowDespite a big end-of-year rally in both oil and energy stocks, the energy sector remains attractively valued at the end of 2019. In fact, energy is the *only* sector that's attractively valued right now. XLE has a reasonable P/E of 15, a price-to-book ratio of 1.5, and a dividend yield at 3.7%. That's a solid return on capital, handily beating the 2.32% yield on treasuries and the 2.2% yield on the top dividend fund, DGRO. DGRO's P/E is over 18 and its price-to-book is 1.9, meaning that in that fund you pay quite a bit more for a lower yield. The dividend yield on XLE has been improving for a couple years now, and I think the 4% dividend level is psychologically significant enough that we'll find a lot of support at that level. Some individual energy stocks, like ET and OXY, even offer dividends near 10% right now. In an overall extremely overbought market with some ongoing recession risk, this is a relatively safe long-term play that offers good value and solid returns. Did I mention that seasonal cycles favor oil right now? December through July are the traditional bull months for oil, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac. Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran and a cooling trade war with China also favor oil strength for the near future.
AMEX:XLELong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
5
[Year End Thoughts] My 2020 Outlook.Rather than chasing the US equity bubble up here, I want to gross up when I can (on dips) in Energy, Real Estate, and Gold. Energy is one of my best idea longs for the beginning of 2020. - XOM is at 12-year rock bottom prices and will pay you a dividend to wait for the eventual uptick in Oil. - The Fed is determined to "run inflation hot" even though CPI is already over 2%. We are going to get more inflation. - Recent presentations by Mike Gordon on Hedgeye: www.youtube.com - and on MacroVoices: www.youtube.com - and a BofAML note: pbs.twimg.com CNQ has already begun severely outperforming the US energy sector. They are a Canadian Oil Sands producer with excellent fundamentals: Attached to the long Energy thesis is long Russia. Russia is a huge energy producing country and will benefit from increased prices. Weekly chart of Russia ETF (RSX): Related, Sberbank: And Gazprom: I like real-estate in an inflationary environment. In particular, tech-related Real Estate: And of course Gold. I expect Gold to continue its bull run soon, within a week or two. However as one of the most manipulated markets, it can be very difficult to trade. I suggest slowly buying physical every time it goes down. I believe the US stock market would have already collapsed, owing to liquidity problems indicated by the extreme spike in Repo rate to 10%. Had the Fed not begun throwing the kitchen sink at the problem, we would have already seen a deflationary bust. It seems like that money has flown into the S&P and AAPL: I'm not entirely convinced that this WON'T end in a Venezuelan or Argentina style hyperinflation. So, I think foreign diversification (Russia and Gold) are essential holdings.
AMEX:XLELong
by tangman