XLE 3d 1H 2024 XLE has been trading in this range for the better part of the last 2 year.
The way I see it, the 82-85 price range determines how this moves through 2024. Once it trades side way in the zone for a bit, the way the price breaks will determine the next move.
If it goes up, I'd expect something similar to the highlighted Q4 2024 -Q1 2023 price action. Breaks out, and makes the closest thing to wykoff distribution top.
If it goes down, expect a retest of the underside triangle, then could turn into an overthrow, creating a bear trap then following with a breakout. Following a similar path to 1.
If it breaks down, it finishes a head and shoulders, with the red line acting like the neckline.
Look at XOM, CVX to hint at what this does next.
If the turmoil in Israel/Gaza widens there is a chance the price of oil and energy stocks reflect the increased supply risk.
