XLE trade ideas
Two trading scenarios to monitor during FOMC week $XLE reached the final target zone of the last bullish setup I published for it.
AB=CD pattern was complete and now the price is testing a daily downtrend line.
As we will open FOMC week, the first thing to monitor is where the price is related to 63$ (current resistance structure zone).
If it'll be below it, we may see a short term pullback towards 60$ and potentially even to 58$.
If it'll close above the trend line, we may see it continue towards the 66$, there it'll meet the 200 days MA.
The two potential scenarios are shown in the chart.
I'd much rather see $XLE declines to levels that will allow me to buy it before the price's next bullish wave.
Tomer, The MarketZone
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$XLE - Energy sector looking for a jump?Perfect triangle formation in the making of $XLE
Breaking strong resistance today. Would be perfect if it closes above resistance.
If it does not jump tomorrow I'm going to look for lower entries.
Entry: 58.50
Target: 63.00
S/L: 53.80 (Gradually bringing it up as the trade goes)
If it goes under entry, will try to get some more shares at 56.00
Continues to climb towards 60$. This is what you have to watch$XLE continues to climb towards 60$
I was covering $XLE throughout the last month and mentioned the AB=CD pattern completion near 60$ that the price was aiming for.
Now, $XLE is struggling with the Fast SMA line that stands in its way and keeping it from reaching 58$ and 60$.
My focus now shifts to 59.5$ and 60$ as potential sell zones for a pullback move.
I'm still bullish Oil, but 60$ can lead to a 5-10% correction in the Energy sector with the two bearish harmonics combination.
Tomer, The MarketZone
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XLE -- MARCH 18TH 43/47/60/64 IRON CONDORWith an implied volatility rank of 83 and an implied volatility of 46, XLE represents a good, non earnings premium selling play here.
March 18th XLE 43/47/60/64 Iron Condor
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $94/contract
Buying Power Effect: $306/contract
$ES_F $SPY $QQQ - $XLE Daily chartXLE OB on SLO STO daily, but can see continuation up to 60.93 or .50 fib. Then, I expect to take out the lows before mark up. You can see where the VBP resistance level are.
XLE PREMIUM SELLING PLAYXLE Feb 26th 47.5/59 short strangle
POP%: 73
Max Profit: $144/contract
BPE: ~$531
BE's: 46.06/60.44
Energy sector RSI divergence. Let's make a right shoulder Later on the cloud will reject it, but we'll have a strong fomo rally prior.
$XLE - Accumulation at support and DB in playI believe it's time we get long here. Long dated calls targeting the 71.10 area
Potential Aggressive C buy - Harmonics setup towards FOMCThe Head and Shoulders pattern I mentioned on my latest analysis for XLE has reached its final target level and now we have an option for an Aggressive Bullish C entry in a bearish Bat pattern (yellow).
This setup basically means that you buy the C point in what could turn out to be a bearish Bat pattern, aiming towards the D point (near 80$) as longer term setup. The 65-68$ zone must be considered also as target zone as the price should meet the downtrend line there if indeed it'll rally from the 60$ support zone.
Stop loss should be with some safety distance below the A point. In the chart I'm showing an example of 3.5% Risk with potential 10% reward (almost 3 R/R ratio).
Despite the potential bullish setup, we don't know that the price indeed intend to rally towards the D point so there's definitely a good chance that $XLE will continue lower and break below 58$ so you have to consider this risk.
Tomer, The MarketZone
This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters
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XLE(Daily). Triple Bottom, H&S Target reached.Head and Shoulders pattern Target reached, Potential Triple Bottom pattern(non-Ideal), holding above Support 59 level, potential Bat pattern, Gap fill possible, before C wave.
$XLE Triple Bottom Long Setup$XLE is showing a triple bottom set up with several bullish momentum divergences.
Short energy with dollar rallying into rate hike weekDaily wicks point to down move to retest prior lows, use top of wicks as stop to cover
XLE, triple RSI bullish divergence?For each major dip, i saw a plateau. However the plateau is getting smaller. Does it means that Sellers no longer wants to sell and buyers have thrown in the towel?
Quite a handfuls of energy stocks are showing bullish divergences as well i believe
MACRO VIEW: XLE AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON DOWNTREND RISKEnergy SPDR ETF is at macro uncertainty with a prospect of continued fall (much like the oil market)
On long term basis - XLE is trading below its 10-year mean at 68.5, signalling uncertainty - as price close to a long term means indicates an outlier event, with institutional traders unsure of what to do with the stock. The price is also close to a potential macro downtrend, as it trades close to 5-year downtrend border at 66 (lower 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean)
On short term basis - XLE confirms the downward risk, as price is trading very close to 1-year downtrend border at 67.5 (lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean). Thus if price falls below 67.5 it will have good probability of falling below 66, entering a downtrend on 5-year basis.
