Natural Gas & oil UpdateOil looking strong and testing a bearish range breakout.
Natural Gas back testing a key support zone.
XLE trade ideas
Feeling energetic? Gold/oil signaling the bottom for energyThis chart compares the price of AMEX:XLE + AMEX:XOP to Gold/Oil. The gold/oil ratio is a simple measure that divides the price of gold (per ounce) by the price of oil (per barrel). This ratio represents the number of barrels of oil that can be bought with one ounce of gold. The relative value of these two commodities and can provide insights into market dynamics and can signal tops and bottoms in the energy sector.
When the gold/oil ratio is high, it means that gold is expensive relative to oil, or conversely, that oil is cheap relative to gold. In recent decades the ratio above 30 has often been an indication that oil prices are near a bottom. This is because a high ratio suggests that oil is undervalued or that gold is overvalued, and markets may adjust to correct this imbalance. However, it's important to note that while the gold/oil ratio can be a useful indicator, it is not infallible. Other factors, such as changes in supply and demand, geopolitical events, and broader economic trends, can also significantly impact oil prices. Therefore, the gold/oil ratio should be used in conjunction with other market indicators and analysis tools.
XLE basing into a cup/handle & bull FlagI've been reviewing multiple energy stocks and energy related etfs. One common theme i'm noticing is the multiple cup and handle patterns that are forming. Upon review of the AMEX:XLE monthly chart, I notice a solid base.
1) Inside this base you can see the previous bullish ABCD pattern.
2) C leg of this pattern, was the short/resistances level
3) Previous resistances level ( C leg) is currently acting as support
4) If you look from B leg to C leg thats a bullish cypher pattern
5) There is good support at $76
6) The Bull flag is building, and is acting as the handle to the larger cup/handle breakout pattern set up
7) I have breakout level above $83.50, which is an old resistances level
$XLE Bear Flag AMEX:XLE Bear Flag on the weekly chart, Close on a weekly basis first target is the horizontal line.
XLE - Cracked longterm uptrend supportBig-cap oil has been lagging behind the broader energy market, particularly the correlation between AMEX:XLE and $WTI.
The break of this trendline is significant and could result in big move down for large-cap O&G.
XLEEnergy wants to go higher.
Still some ways to go before the neckline line at 87.39 but the inverted H&S is showing
Will history repeat? XLE outperformed XLK in 2000In the year 2000, the energy sector represented by XLE outperformed the technology sector represented by XLK. The trend seems to be repeating itself as we witness the commodities boom occurring just as the tech boom slows down.
This begs the question, will history repeat itself?!
During the tech boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the technology sector was the most sought-after by investors. However, in 2000, the market saw a major shift as the energy sector, represented by XLE, outperformed the technology sector, represented by XLK. This shift occurred as the tech bubble burst and the commodities boom took over.
Fast forward to today, and we see a similar trend. As the technology sector has slowed down in recent months, the energy sector has seen significant gains. The rise in commodities such as oil and gas has driven the energy sector's recent outperformance.
While there are always unique factors at play in the market, the similarities between the current situation and that of 2000 cannot be ignored. It is possible that history will repeat itself, and we could see the energy sector once again outperforming the technology sector.
Ascending Triangle On The Daily Chart Ascending triangle on the daily chart w/ a strong setup for more upside contingent on a daily close above the ascending triangle resistance at $87.20.
XLE Energy Select Sector Price TargetAfter the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries supply cut and considering the Elliott Wave Chart Pattern, i would say the next price target for XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is $92.60.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Long XLE and XOP, wedge breakout Breakout based on OPEC's recent oil-cut by +1,6Mbpd
Good timing with the wedge tightening as well, great Risk here.
XLE closed below the critical lineDaily had a retest and got rejected. It could have more fluctuation around this area but likely more downside is ahead with in the next month.
$XLE - Weakness in the Energy Sector Could Bring Stage 4 DeclineThe Energy sector is notoriously one of the last to roll over in a recessionary environment and the $XLE chart appears to be topping out right on queue.
After a euphoric run beginning in the middle of 2020, the Energy sector has stalled out creating a triple top near the $90 level.
With the break of the 200-day moving average, along with an accompanying bearish momentum regime in the RSI, we expect the Energy sector to begin its descent into a Stage 4 decline.
Many individual stocks within the Energy sector look prime for capitulation events and accompanying sector weakness would further aggravate already anemic charts.
PT near 60.
XLE (Energy)In my last my post, I XLE should bounce off 82 and retest is daily 50sma; Since then we've dropped back to 82.
Holding 82 is important for bulls. You Never want to see a Sector lose .236 fib if your a bull... .236 is a reversal fib.
Right below 82 is XLE primary trendline since 2020 lows at 80$. If we break and close below 80 we are looking at bearish reversal with my first target 72$ gap close
If we bounce we still have breakover the most recent downtrend (White line) at around 85.50, if we breakover 85, then it's back to 93$ ...
Chart looks bearish IMO; like we're in final stages of distribution.
There's been RSI divergence since last May
Fib levels are from ATH and All time low
XLE - Minor Low Breakout XLE is in a sideways trend with market and Oil weakness.
Pro's - Darvas support, 200 propulsion, RAF Extreme, Vscore Extreme. L2 target is at 200prop.
Con's - Sideways R/Y trend.
Entry - $85.30
Profit - 50% range - $86.70
25% Stop Loss
21APR23 85 Calls
XLEChart looks 90% identical to the Dow jones .
Both are sitting right on Weekly support of its 50sma .
XLE bounced off its daily 200sma (Gold wave) , I think we will bounce and retest our 50sma (Purple wave)..
Stop loss is a close below 81
Week 6 - 2023 - Weekly S&P500 Sector AnalysisDiscussing all the major weekly trends for each sector.
$XLE vs $SPY: Rotation back into oil stocksI think this is the play right here, right now...Might be a nice swing to the upside for oil names, specially relative to the market.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
XLE: sell ideaOn XLE we will have a big probability of a downtrend after the breakout with force the support and vwap! Thanks!
XLE - the bigger short It's a controversial call to say energy prices are going to drop dramatically into next year but this is what the XLE chart is showing.
We're at a double top with monthly bearish RSI divergence, and the same structural trendline where it fell last time. My guess is it could get back down to 50. If it's a C leg it could happen faster than most would expect. 50 area would be a confluence of support - channel trendline and horizontal trendline, also IF a C leg comes, 50 is about 1.618 fib extension from the A leg.
This idea is invalid if XLE can hold above 102 on a monthly close. Good luck!
