Long | XLEAMEX:XLE
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Unusual option activity, price action
This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
* Consider political conflicts and geo political interests, this ETF is a crystal ball
XLE trade ideas
The Second Greatest Short Of All TimeHello friends. You surely remember when I created my idea "The Greatest Short of All Time". And it was. XLE proceeded to print a mind-shattering collapse, exactly as I had forseen. But now, we have had a pullback as expected and it is time for a new short.
There are several reasons why energy is bearish now.
For one, there is a highly bearish seasonal window which we are entering right now for gasoline
On top of this, Natural Gas just formed a Scam Top pattern and is hurtling towards the downside rapidly
Rates continue to rise, and inflation has obviously peaked at this point, with the latest CPI reading at a flat 0% and future readings quite possibly geared up to start bleeding into the negatives. Kalshi predicts an annual inflation between 7.0-7.9%. I think it's more likely to be even lower, but even Kalshi's conservative estimate would already be a decrease in inflation for this year
There appear to be some large trader purchasing massive amounts of puts on XLE
Insiders also have not eased off even a bit and are still selling XLE hand over fist
We will play this idea by purchasing a reasonable amount of XLE puts which are dated to expire on September 30th and have a strike price at $80.
I have a feeling that guy who shit all over every one of my energy short ideas, saying it was impossible for XLE to collapse, is now resting peacefully 6 feet under. But if you are him and reading this, I just want to give you a huge L. You deserve it.
Thanks for playing.
Energy is unpredictable but cooling downEnergy is very dependent on the leaders' decisions, less on fundamentals. A slight cool off in oil prices looks more likely to continue, but the option bets are all over the place - some people bet the price of XLE will reach 99, some people have short bets for 63
Energy XLE idea (02/09/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range
XLE Energy Sector Index is expected to rise to target the third wave. Since prices are above the long-term support level of 70.59, the key support point at 65.48, we expect a downward correction at the moment. Prices are below 85.23. We expect a correction in wave b and then descend again to complete wave (ii).
$XLE: Weekly and monthly uptrendNice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the prior week, and am long $XLE and other names in my portfolio. I suggest you do the same, very interesting time, where the easy money disappeared from markets and people will likely get schooled time and time again trying to gamble in the same garbage names as between 2020 and 2022.
Stay safe out there!
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Energy XLE idea (31/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range In addition to the XLE Energy Sector Index, it is expected to rise to target the third wave. Since prices are above the long-term support level of 70.59, the main support point at 65.48, at the moment, we expect a correction to the downside. Prices are below 85.23. We expect a correction in wave b.
XLE and SPX Divergence Predicts Crashes?Whenever the price of XLE and SPX diverge, we seem to get a massive crash.
XLE creeps higher, but SPX makes new lows. Historically, what tends to happen next is that SPX falls off a cliff, as was the case in the 2000 and 2008 bear markets.
Today in 2022, XLE was creeping higher as SPX was making new lows. What happens next?
$XLE (Energy) seems to be making the same pattern as last time!Notes:
* I last spoke about this around the end of May as it was forming an ascending wedge
Now:
* It seems like the Energy sector ETF $XLE is making an ascending bearish wedge/channel once again.
* It's showing resistance around the $82.9/8 area again.
* I wouldn't be surprised if it has a fake breakout to the upside face resistance around the ~$88.7 area and eventually falling back inside the channel.
* I'm neutral for the time being but keeping a close eye on this for a bearish reversal.
It doesn't seem extended yet, that's what makes me think that it may actually break out to the up side before heading back down.
Energy XLE idea (29/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range In addition rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support Prise 70.59 in the long term, and the main support point at prices of 65.48. Currently, we expect the decline to correct since the prices are below 84.56
Energy XLE idea (26/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range Further rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support point of 70.59, we expect a rise in the near term and also in the long term, and the main support point is at prices of 65.48
Energy XLE idea (24/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range Further rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support point of 70.59, we expect a rise in the near term and also in the long term, and the main support point is at prices of 65.48
The Best Part of Waken Up...Is Inflation in your Cup!
This idea is following my previous post about how to Straddle an Ascending Triangle.
After that Straddle plays out a Cup and Handle could form.
The current admin forgot they need to turn off the spigot to stop inflation.
Want a strong economy? employment.
Employment burns fuel. Firms are trying to get employees back in offices.
Offices burn fuel with employees.
Can't have one without the... other.
How to Straddle an Ascending TriangleFor info on Ascending Triangle, check out my previous AMZN chart.
XLE consolidated 2 weeks prior to form an Ascending Triangle on the 4hr chart.
The 2 week period at the end of July XLE gained 20% .
This sets up a Great risk/reward around a sector with NG on the move.
Don’t count out the oil bull either.
While markets were bearish overall, XLE was on a 60% top before June.
Falling Energy gave way to lower inflation prints in June and July.
I can see XLE going to June high of 93 to form a cup and handle.
More on that in my next XLE idea.
XLE Energy Sector approaching ATH. Options play with CushionWith energy prices continuing their rise due to global shortages and war, XLE has climbed over 50% YTD. The potential upside to all-time highs, along with the intact trend since March of 2020 are enticing. It might be harder to take on a position after a 100% YoY increase and not feel like its FOMO. So, I look for options to enter with a bullish outlook but protect from downside volatility. Using a custom options strategy we can build in a 23% cushion ($65.38) and still capture all the upside to the ceiling ($89.13).
Using this strategy, it’s possible to make up to 9% ( 15% annualized ).
Start to lose only if XLE falls by more than 22% to below $63.58 as of 03/31/2023 .
Option Order
Buy 1 $82 call
Sell 1 $87 call
Sell 1 $64 put
Exp 3/31/23
Required to invest: $6,362.98
Energy XLE idea (22/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range Further rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support point of 70.59, we expect a rise in the near term and also in the long term, and the main support point is at prices of 65.48
Energy XLE idea (17/08/2022)XLE ENERGY ETFS Look for evidence of wave termination ((2).
Therefore, the current correction of the energy sector index may continue a little before it resumes and rises again, as support point 70.59 supports the rise in the near term will in the Long Term. Therefore, if trading remains above the support point of 65.48, we may see more rise.
XLE CHARTAnalysis of XLE if you wanna make cheese. Yall making me type this long description for what bro?
Bear Market - EvidenceThis descending triangle in the most "bullish" of sectors - energy - seems to prove that we are in a bear market. The descending triangle seems to trade with a bearish elliot wave pattern for descending triangles as evidenced here:
thepatternsite.com
Share your thoughts in the comments below.
XLE: Commodities short if retestXLE: Commodities short if retest
As usual everything's on the chart. TP is the minimum target.
XLE History Tends to Repeat With rates quickly increasing, inflation running rampant, the fed moving to QT and away from QE. The future certainly looks bleak. A recession will lead to lower gas prices and will eventually bring other prices lower, but first, a massive repricing needs to take place.
