XLF trade ideas
still in daily downtrend for financialsMy short position is playing out the recent low was only 4 cents off but still counts looking for a lower low below 20.29. It would be a fairly good time to open a new short on financials after the recent rally. I’m doing it by faz 3x bear fund.
Look out below. Financial sector is sending huge warningThe financial sector is sending a huge warning to all skilled technical traders. You think this big rally in the NQ, ES, YM and other is really the bottom of the market?
The stock market is based on perceived forward earnings, guidance and performance of individual stocks/companies. The COVID-19 virus event has blown a huge hole in the bottom of our boat. 40+ million US working out of jobs. Income levels dropping. Stocks rallying? WTH?
The reality is that risks are quite high that a broader economic collapse will take place over the next 6+ months as the real collateral damage comes into view.
TRAN and XLF are showing that the markets are not stable. HUGE risks continue just below the surface.
You have been warned.
Weekly bear flag playing out on banksboth tech stocks and spx are going sideways but xlf is in a strong downtrend. I am personally long faz, the banks have the most downside fundamentally. They loaned money at cheap interest rates below inflation to a bunch of over leveraged broke Americans. We will have to wait to see just how bad default rates get with highest unemployment ever. I expect the default rates to break records. These guys are gonna need another bailout.
XLF Break out? Cup and handle and short term retracement. I'm looking at a simple move to the upside for XLF. Cup and handle looking clear on the hr. Will scale out 80% as it reaches the cloud. using 8ma for guidance.
XLF back to 21 againThis one tricked me several times... Will not play in the near term. Just an observation.
Update: Nice Bounce. GAP reached. Now adding set of shorts $$XLF GAP reached (Yellow Zone). Now adding sets of shorts (Red Boxes) and moving the targets (Green Zone)
Update: $XLF, $FAZ, $FAS, (taking first set of Profits) Taking first set of profitsand moving again Stop loss. Also expecting a bounce and perhaps fill the GAP (Yellow Zone). Then I consider add new positions keeping downtrend.
Holding Short positions. Weakness on XLF & Financial sector.Holding Short positions. Weakness on XLF & Financial sector.
Banks to bring the whole mkt downXLF barely holding up in bearish trend. This is a true Canary 🐤 in the coal mine and barely breathing to survive. All bets are off on indices if this breaks $21.20
New Relative Lows For Fins & Utes vs $SPY - What's Next?Hearing much buzz about the fresh relative lows for Utilities and Financials vs the S&P 500 $SPY this week... these relative trends typically don't move together so at some point one is likely to give...
Considering the underlying downtrend in Financials vs Utes, my bets on Fins underperforming and $XLF breaking to new lows vs $XLU... This is likely to happen in an environment where stocks in general are not doing too well.
Check out the chart of Broker-Dealers & Exchanges $IAI trapped beneath long-term resistance in the "related ideas" below - This also does not bode well for Financials as even their strongest subsector is currently trading below significant overhead supply.
Moving SL and adding new positions $FAZ. Short $XLF.Moving SL and adding new positions $FAZ. Short $ XLF. I expect a deep pullback on the S&P, DJI and Nasdaq index.
Short XLF not because it is hard, but because it is easyIts top two constituents by weight, JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway's (stinky) B shares, have been performing very poorly in comparison to most stocks:
This along with XLK (tech bubble) and XLE (oil) are, to me, overvalued and must be denied higher prices.
XLF thougtsBigger picture wise, I think XLF should dip below 2015 low but not penetrate 08/09 low. So $14.9 is the first area I would think long.
I think we have have an opportunity here! $XLF $FAZI think we have have an opportunity here! $XLF $FAZ. Pullback on price action.
XLF - Financial sector SPDR S/R zonesHello traders,
Description of the analysis:
The financial sector is showing an attempt at stabilization, but so far there is no talk of stabilization. We see gaps up and down. It is necessary to wait for a clearly defined volume distribution. Gaps tend to fill sooner or later. The way up again will be hampered by marked resistances. At the moment, I would be very careful to invest in this sector.
About me:
Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (4 000 000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades.
Jacob
XLF Long Term ChartEveryone knows that we're gonna have issues with financials given all the bankruptcies that are going to happen with oil companies, restaurants, and other businesses.
The thing is, it took a full year for XLF to collapse from current price level to the bottom back in 2009. Much the same, I don't expect the market to hit bottom until next year....
What's amazing is how fast it dropped in Feb/March, not the whipsaw bounce we're seeing now. It's gonna be a long slow ride down...
