XLF trade ideas
XLF surges on house vote, but don't buy into the move.XLF, the financial services ETF, surged as the House voted to repeal Dodd-Frank. However, financials are staring a wall of delinquencies in the face as the delinquency rate continues to rise higher. This will have a bigger effect on the market than passing this legislation. The delinquency rate continues to rise after the surge in lending at the end of 2016.
I am looking to short XLF. The economy is not as robust as most participants wearing blinders want to believe. Given this, XLF is a short at these levels. There will be more data coming through that iterates where the economy truly is.
XLF surges on House vote repeal Dodd-Frank, but don't buy.Dodd-Frank got closer to being repealed and likely the Senate will follow suit, from what I he been reading. However, the financial sector is facing a wall of delinquencies as the rate continues to climb. That would be a far greater market mover than the repeal of the legislation that would ultimately prevent financials from getting a wall of delinquencies. It is kind of ironic, if you think about it.
I am more interested in selling financials and this may be good starting point to enter a short. The financials are facing dire times ahead. This is a short-term boost that allows a short seller a better vantage to sell.
XLF, will Mdm Y do special stunt again?9 days ago, my XLF post shown that price has broken down the 2009 uptrend line twice in 3 months.
To add matter worst, we have a 2 consecutive weekly close for the recent break down.
Technically, i find this really unhealthy even if Mdm Y decides to do something to push the price back into uptrend line
Financial Sector Could Drop ?A probable Head & Shoulder formation could be in place, with the neckline standing at 22.90$. if Broken ultimate target would be 20.50$.
XLF: preparing for a "sharper" correctionWith XLF hitting 25 Region - a long term resistance - it is reasonable thinking about a short via FAZ ...
Weak all weekXLF was weak in spite of money centers issued very good number. The price consolidates just above strong LT support at 23.00 Good time to plan short, to me it's gonna work both for momentum trades and swings
US Financials Sector Under PressureWe have updated our monthly publication - US Sectors Relative to S&P500.
It is an overview of the major US sectors, and covers, amongst others, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Healthcare, Technology and Financials.
Within several ratings changes, we have Downgraded Financials to Underweight.
On an absolute basis, the US Financials ETF XLF is showing signs of exhaustion. Prices are correcting back from the March highs at 25.30, with focus now on the 22.55/57 break level from November/December. Falling momentum studies suggest risk of a break beneath here, with subsequent focus then turning to the 20.00 break level.
Relative to the US S&P500 Index, price action is also looking vulnerable.
In the coming months, we see further Underperformance as institutional investors reduce exposure.
Individual names which are currently under pressure include Bank of America Corp (BAC), Citigroup Inc (C), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), JP Morgan & Chase Co (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
However, several names are managing to hold on to their relative strength. Investors who are maintaining a Financials portfolio are currently seeing safety in for example, American Express Co (AXP), BlackRock (BLK), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), Moody's Corp (MCO) and Prudential Financial (PRU).
XLF H&S neckline break - Bad Auto Loans / No Bank Reg Reform?AMEX:XLF AMEX:FAS AMEX:FAZ AMEX:KBE NYSE:C NYSE:BAC NYSE:WFC AMEX:IWM RUT TVC:RUT
Head And Shoulder Pattern On Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF There is a clear and crisp head and shoulder pattern on the chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF). For investors who do not know, a head and shoulder pattern is very bearish. For the massive downside to occur, the neck-line needs to be broken. Please be aware, the neck-line has not broken yet Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, so there is no immanent danger, but based on the chart, it is likely it will happen in the next week. When the neck-line triggers, the XLF will drop from its current $23.40 to $21.00. This spells major downside on financial stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). This should be very concerning for investors in relation to the overall market. If the financial stocks fall sharply, the market will be taking a beating.
Head And Shoulder Pattern On Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF There is a clear and crisp head and shoulder pattern on the chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF). For investors who do not know, a head and shoulder pattern is very bearish. For the massive downside to occur, the neck-line needs to be broken. Please be aware, the neck-line has not broken yet Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, so there is no immanent danger, but based on the chart, it is likely it will happen in the next week. When the neck-line triggers, the XLF will drop from its current $23.40 to $21.00. This spells major downside on financial stocks like Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM). This should be very concerning for investors in relation to the overall market. If the financial stocks fall sharply, the market will be taking a beating.
XLF will lead market lowerAMEX:XLF AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD TVC:VIX AMEX:VXX AMEX:UVXY NASDAQ:TVIX AMEX:FAS AMEX:FAZ
XLF Synthetic StraddleTrade Setup:
-1 XLF May 19 20/23/23/27 Synthetic Straddle @ $1.26
DTE: 53
Max Win: $126
Max Loss: $126 (1x credit received)
Breakevens: $21.74 & $24.26
Trade Management: 25% profit; 1x credit received loss
Green is profit zone; Vertical black bar is expiration.
Potential Sell Zone towards FOMC24-25$ is a potential Sell Zone that includes:
1) Weekly Structure
2) Bearish Crab
3) The 78.6 Fib level (reversal level)
A close below 23$ can provide the confirmation signal - In such case, XLF target will be 21$
XLF to go for $26 areaEven though it has almost touched the top line but at the daily level, 5 wave is not done yet.
