XLK Breaks All-Time High – Will It Stick the Landing or Soar?AMEX:XLK just broke into new all-time high (ATH) territory — barely — but the move is worth watching.
The breakout came on the heels of a strong bullish candle in the first week of June, followed by a doji last week, and now we're seeing fresh bullish momentum early this week with a gap-up.
➜ The big question:
Will XLK continue to hover just above the ATH, or finally break through with conviction?
This move could set the tone for tech stocks this summer, especially if we see confirmation like we did with NASDAQ:MSFT — which broke its ATH on June 6 and hasn’t looked back.
➜ Watching for:
➲ Continuation above ATH
➲ Potential summer trend leadership
➲ Confirmation from big names in the sector
#XLK #techstocks #SPDR #technicalanalysis #breakout
XLK trade ideas
XLK ETF. TO WAR, OR NOT TO WAR — THAT IS THE QUESTION..US stock futures edged lower Wednesday evening ahead of Thursday’s market closure for Juneteenth.
The moves came after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell striking a cautious tone amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Powell reaffirmed a data-dependent approach, pointing to unclear inflation impacts from President Trump’s tariffs and the risk of stagflation.
Fed projections now include two rate cuts in 2025, alongside downgraded growth expectations and higher inflation forecasts.
Investor sentiment was further dampened by escalating tensions in the Middle East, as the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict stoked fears of deeper US involvement, while North Korea has recently launched 10 rockets from near capital Pyongyang.
Futures for 7 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the Prime Day holiday in the red, led by declines in energy, while technology outperformed.
What is more important Technology sector is the one and only over 11 S&P 500 sectors that has printed recently new all the history high, just one - two days before Prime Day.
What is XLK The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF
AMEX:XLK ETF is respectively The Technology Select Sector ETF, that seeks to provide investment results correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Technology Sector Index.
The largest 5 holdings of this ETF are Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO and Oracle NYSE:ORCL , while all together they weight nearly 50 percent of the fund by market cap.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT shares have experienced a significant upward trend in 2025, reaching new all-time highs and reflecting the company’s robust financial performance and strategic positioning in the technology sector.
Record Highs and Price Momentum
As of June 18, 2025, Microsoft’s stock closed at $480.24, marking its highest closing price ever. This price is just below its 52-week high of $481.00 and represents a 14% gain year-to-date, making Microsoft one of the best-performing stocks among the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants in 2025. The stock’s average price over the past 52 weeks was $422.77, and its 52-week low was $344.79, which is 28.2% below the current level, highlighting the impressive rally over the past year.
Short-Term and Long-Term Performance
In the immediate term, Microsoft’s stock has shown steady gains. Over the past week, the share price rose by 2.03%, and over the past month, it increased by 6.36%. Looking at a broader horizon, the stock is up 6.79% over the last year, underscoring consistent investor confidence and the company’s ability to capitalize on growth opportunities.
Drivers Behind the Rally
Several factors have contributed to Microsoft’s recent share price surge:
Artificial Intelligence Investment. Microsoft continues to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025. This aggressive investment is seen as crucial to maintaining a competitive edge in cloud computing and AI services, areas that are driving much of the company’s growth.
Cost Management. Despite the heavy spending on AI, Microsoft is also focused on controlling costs. The company is reportedly planning to trim thousands of jobs, particularly in sales, to offset rising expenses and protect profit margins. This follows earlier workforce reductions and reflects a broader trend among major tech firms to optimize operations amid escalating AI-related costs.
Diversified Revenue Streams. Microsoft’s strong position in software, cloud computing, and AI, along with its subscription-based business model and consistent dividend growth, have bolstered investor sentiment. The company’s cloud platform Azure and productivity tools continue to show strong adoption across industries.
Market and Analyst Sentiment
Microsoft’s market capitalization recently reached $3.55 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.94, indicating high investor expectations for future growth. Analysts’ price targets for MSFT range from $432 to $700, suggesting a wide spectrum of views but generally positive long-term sentiment.
Competitive and Operational Challenges
Despite its strong performance, Microsoft faces competitive pressures, particularly from OpenAI, which has been offering discounted ChatGPT subscriptions, impacting Microsoft’s own AI products like Copilot. Additionally, negotiations with OpenAI over continued access to its technology have reportedly stalled, introducing some uncertainty into Microsoft’s AI strategy.
Technical challenge and summary
While Microsoft shares have recently hit record highs, driven by aggressive AI investment, disciplined cost management, and strong core business performance, it robustly helped to all the Technology sector came back to 6-month key resistance after nearly 40 percent recovery rally.
While the market faces different challenges, we keep our strategic focus on next positions and further stock market development.
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Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
Indices quant zones, expression can be through nasdaq 100already have slight bull flow
in the event of a flush on market opens,
look for momentum slow and buy around these zones
expression can be through nasdaq 100
Check out our socials for some nice insights.
Let us know if there're any pair you like to see or if this is something you like.
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Not as refined as our direct trade setups. More for advanced active traders.
information created and published doesn't constitute investment advice!
NOT financial advice
quant zones for tracking risk on turnevery wicked lows below or near these levels are great buys
no holding through weekend to avoid WW3/other event risks
expression can be through nas100 (nasdaq 100 index)
track trump speaking in oval office
momentum still strong. wait for momentum dissipation
quant zones for tracking risk on turn
Check out our socials for some nice insights.
Let us know if there're any pair you like to see or if this is something you like.
Do ask if you have any question
Not as refined as our direct trade setups. More for advanced active traders.
information created and published doesn't constitute investment advice!
NOT financial advice
Tech stocks looking tired, more downside probableSince having reached the area near the all time high, the ratio of XLK/SPY has been in a pullback.
It looks like this might continue until we reach the bottom of the uptrend channel from where it could resume its uptrend to complet its 5th wave higher.
MACD and RSI are showing serious bearish divergence.
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Double Top on Tech?Technology stocks had a strong first half but could be ending the year on a weak note. Is the sector finally losing its leadership?
Today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector Technology Fund highlights the July 10 closing high of $237.68. XLK stalled around that same level a week ago, resulting in a potential double top on the fund.
Second, prices have slipped below October's closing high of $233.73. That stands in contrast with other big sectors like Communications, Financials and Consumer Discretionaries.
Third, relative strength in the lower study shows fading leadership in technology versus the broader market.
We end with a look at Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which has been a major driver of the sector this year. Notice the sharply rising lower trendline and the higher trendline with less of an upward slope. That kind of rising wedge is a potential reversal pattern.
It could also raise the stakes headed into NVDA’s big earnings report after the closing bell next Wednesday, November 20.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Technology ETF (XLK)
1-year: +35.50%
5-years: +165.61%
10-year: +448.20%
(As of October 31, 2024)
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Switched out long XLK to a short 220.95Ok guys that was sweet rally time get out and short again
look daily stoch rolling over look vol decreasing look candle
look watch see 50 day cross down thru 100
look weekly stoch wants to roll down
Looking for sell off in rate cut maybe down 208
Then boom rally till election
Long XLK 206.35 Target 240Look daily chart look stoch on bottom turning up. Look candle saying buyers came in see the wick on daily candle, Vol not bad still more sellers. Nice swing trade long
240.
Know the kicker we rallied on AI like madness
rallied on Rate Cuts well gonna get them so rumor cut fact sell so they sold into it like I said it would fed cut means economy hmm not doing well and its not guys and the cuts creates inflation labor jobs suck inflation high defect out control getting worse banks broke about collapse More tech lay offs coming.
So I see after election after xmas 2025 or after election a major a major CRASH in tech and market I mean Major shits going to hit fan wont happen during election guys listen to charts banks are BROKE. For know riding the train up. Also the cut PLAY PLAY GLD gold higher dollar crashes. So Bull its about over enjoy 2024 last attempt 600
XLK Crossover IdeaAMEX:XLK
Standard crossover idea:
Buying at open so long as we open or push above yesterdays close.
Looking at an Oct contract
Oct18 215c for roughly 9.7 (I'll try to buy at the mid)
Using the ATR of 5.7 -
SL: 215.89 (just below YLOD and 100d SMA)
TP1: 227.37 resistance
TP2: 232.17 supply zone test
TP3: 238.12 ATH's test
Max Date: Market open of 9/25/24
**As always, if targets are not met by max date, I will exit full no matter the p/l.
Also keep in mind that there are certainly more catalysts ahead next week with the rate decision.
Short XLK @ the 50 day ma 221.28Hey guys what a week huh SPY target was 454 then they came out with saying the consumer u and I are resilient and Walmart rallied cause U and I are going their instead other stores cause why it cheap u clowns and last week 4 small banks come out say they are 4 billion in debt no one paying it back lot on car loans etc. So lets see how far we pull back or see do we give it all back their is a very very good chance we do hit 91 again XLK .
Shorted why lower highs and vol heading down as we go into the 50 day MA.
Know this can go higher how stock buy backs lets just see though we drop from here that gonna make another lower high on all indices. Comments welcome
I like to thank all that follow me I try give best TA information I can I would not be buying up here I swing trade.
XLK - possible opportunity but don't plant all your seed at onceTime to start accumulating some XLK? I think so. With the 200-day on the yearly chart being breached, I believe this a good entry point. Buyer be aware, painful times may be ahead. Going with weekly purchases on this one for dollar cost averaging. Quick spike up my result in a quick sell on my end but I’ll also welcome ongoing movement down.
From a technical standpoint, the last time XLK breached the 200-day was August 5th. It quickly recovered. From a guessing standpoint, I don’t see this happening again. I’m thinking a sideways movement from here until November (excellent candidate for the wheel) or more downward pressure. Beyond this current area, next major support is the $190ish range.
I added Volume Profile to the chart. Still learning this one but wanted to leave it on. Comments are welcomed as to what you see, especially with Volume Profile.
I am not an attorney, accountant or financial advisor, nor am I holding myself out to be, and the information contained in this post is not a substitute for financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation
XLK vs SPY shows key break throughThe tech sectors sell off we experienced over the past month looks to be coming to a close
In multiple tech giant ETFS (XLK and SMH) are seeing breakthoughs of the past months violent sell off
comparing XLK/SPY we see that the recent downtrend has broken
The pair setup had reached level of support which it hit this time last year
Since September is typically a rough month we should not expect any big rallies during the next month or so.
Do not expect any rally to start until atleast October possibly early November
Anticipate market trades flat overall for next month or so.