XLK trade ideas
XLK @ 1h @ will the 48 points be defended around 2016/17 ?Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
XLK: Using RSI and Volume to Project a Potential Breakout TradeHi,
Here's an idea where we use make use of RSI and Volume to project the likelihood of a potential breakout trade.
1. XLK has more or less trended higher since 2012 up till now. There was a period of sideways consolidation between Aug 2015 to Jun 2016. However, price has successfully breached the Consolidation Resistance of $44.60 on 12 July 2016 and traded higher to the 46-48 range.
Hence, XLK is trading in an overall bullish environment.
2. Next, we turn our attention to the RSI readings. The main concept is to match support buying "valleys" with turning points against a visible RSI support level.
Let's take a look at labels 2a, b, c on the chart. These are 3 examples where we observed support buying in price corresponding to a RSI Support level of around 32. The most recent price action and RSI behavior, marked "d" , from Nov 2016 is similar to 2a, b & c .
This suggest that price is likely to repeat a support buying move, similar to 2a, b & c.
3. Lastly, we now look at the sharp volume spikes marked out at 3a and 3b . Again, we noticed strong support buying action corresponding to the spikes in volume. Looking at the most recent volume profile marked 3c , we note that volume had spiked in similar fashion to that of 3a and 3b .
This indicates the possibility of a repeat of a support buying move as experienced by the market at 3a and 3b .
Projection
Given that:
i) price is in a bullish environment
ii) We see RSI support at 32 similar to previous "valleys"
iii) There is Volume spike profile similar to previous "valleys"
We project that price is likely to push higher, breaking immediate resistance at 48.00 and breakout higher. While not illustrated, there is also a potential for price to break out in a manner consistent with an Elliott Impulse Wave 3 move.
Entry
Any time from now, at a price no lesser than $46.00 and no higher than 48.80.
Stop Loss
Below $46.00.
This is the immediate support level.
Risk Management
We can size the short position based on the an Initial Stop Loss below $46.00.
This Stop loss should be shifted to breakeven level, if price is able to reach around 48.80. This will essentially minimize the risk of loss from this trade.
Also, we can expect the price to fully develop the up move by 18 Jan 2017. Hence, all positions based on this idea should be closed by 18 Jan 2017, if price has yet to reach profit targets.
Taking Profit
Based on price history, we may consider taking 60% profit at around $50 and 30% at $52. This leaves 10% to capture any potential extended Impulse Wave 3 move.
Alternatively, we can also consider refer to RSI(14) and look to close out the position at around 72.00.
Cheers and have a profitable week~!
-BreakOutArtist
What's propping up XLK: AAPL?Of the top three weighted holdings in XLK, only AAPL is up on higher prices.
I expect this technology ETF to go down hard from hereI expect this technology ETF to go down hard from here
Tech sector has a decision to make soonSeeing a lot of similar charts. Coiled with weakness over last few days but still holding onto longer uptrend.
XLK tech another leg downlook like tech might take another dip. google was unable to maintain gains from ER
Support possible at 42.10 Will be interesting to see a bounce from most sectors if support holds. will provide great oppurtinity to short .
MACRO VIEW: XLK IN UPTREND ON ALL FRONTSXLK - the SPDR Tech sector ETF s in firm uptrend both on macro and on micro perspective, and it is the best-looking US sector ETF from the SPDR range.
On long term perspective price has broken back into the 5 and 10 year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from 5 and 10 year means respectively
On long term perspective price has recently broken out into the quarterly and 1-year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from quarterly and 1-year means respectively
Looks bubblish? maybe, but it is OK to dance while the music plays!=)
XLK 42.78-neutral- Consolidates within a 3-week range XLK has been consolidating within a 3-week range between 42.97 (July 23, 2015 high) and 41.83 (August 7, 2015 low). An upside break above 42.97 would extend strength towards the 43.81 double top (as shown on the daily cahrt). However, a breakdown below 41.83 (near the 200 day moving average) would suggest near-term topping and weaken towards the 7-month range low at 40.79 (July 9, 2015 low).
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish
New Strategy Concept - CompletedThis is an option strategy, involves complex options spread (CUSTOM) Takes advantage of all the aspects.
1. Trend - Strength classification
2. Setup - Followed by Trigger (Hidden)
3. Most important - Setup Violation (Yet to be coded)
Sneak Peak
This is my Strategy for trading the most successful option trades (short term). Winning the game is all i focused. Panic reversal is what I was focusing. There are many ways - Probability is higher here.
About to test uptrend lineFirst test to yesterday's bears will be the uptrend line shown in the chart.
If it'll breakdown, the next test will be the 42.2-42.4$ support zone but then, with a broken uptrend line, it could be a matter of time before $XLK reached 41.5$
