XOM trade ideas
XOM . Long opportunity I noticed while hunting for stat arb pairs that XOM and XLE (Energy etf ) are very very closely paired . They pass a co-integration test at 99% and are correlated at 88%. In-fact, they are so closely paired that they can not be profitably traded as a pair as the average convergence and divergence between them is too close and the spread is simply not profitable on my back testing.
However, we can still use this to our advantage. Although they do not make a good stat arb pair , we do know that if the energy etf (XLF) goes one direction , so does XOM . Based on this , I think that at the current share price, this is a very good longer term hold . Ignore everything to do with who wins the election and simply bet on a future reversal of XLF, which will happen ... eventually :)
At the time of writing , XOM is actually trading below it's book value ($41.54) Also, next years estimates call for a 415% increase in EPS, not to mention it comes with a 10.62% dividend . This is a good long , at a discount, patience likely required .
XLE is shown in orange and XOM is shown in blue ;)
Good luck ~
XOM - 9:1 or another drop?Fellow traders please manage your risk, i will never risk more than 1% of my capital on a trade and i seriously urge you do to the same!
I watched Exxon Mobil NYSE:XOM very carefully in the past few days and spotted a possible entry.
The structure of the last few days looks like a Wave 1-2-3-4 and we already corrected to the 0.5 retracement.
Because of the risk/reward of 9.0 i just opened a long position, beware that this is a risky move and i normally don't trade in this short timeframe.
I am trading with a guaranteed stop loss order (GSL), if the price should drop heavily in the pre-market session.
Primary scenario: Likelyhood 55%
We are forming a solid 3-4 setup and are setting us up for Wave 5 which will bring us to 35$.
Alternative scenario: Likelyhood 45%
My alternative scenario will get triggered if we break the previous high of wave 1 @31.13$.
A further drop of about 10% will be very likely and the future of XOM remains uncertain.
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If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact me.
Exxon Mobil - bearish viewIf a five wave move down will take place, it should target $25/ share
Current structure looks like an incomplete pattern, I assume a flat that is in its latest phase (needs to complete a wave C, that should be an impulse).
XOM APRIL CALL IS A BRAINDEAD BET 35$Here is my reasoning behind buying these calls.
Trump wins oil companies will boom.
Covid-19 daily new cases are on the last wave with the elliot count.
Daily horizontal support.
TD13 on the weekly.
A lot of volume and momentum setups on the table.
Risk reward ratio is juicy.
Lets rock this thing!
Exxon Mobil The Idea is to hold - wait the end of the bearish trend before going long.
The breakout of the Trendline gives a signal of strength, but it is still to early to go long.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Exxon lost 18 cents per share for the third quarter, smaller than the 25 cents a share loss that analysts were expecting. Revenue came in above analysts’ forecasts. Exxon is also planning smaller capital expenditures for 2021, to $16 billion to $19 billion, from $23 billion this year.
$XOM - Exxon Mobile Daily ViewExxon posts lighter than expected Q3 loss, slashes 2021 capex plan - seekingalpha.com
Was thinking this might drop below $30 on this ER but its been holding up. Looking for a swing back up near $34-$38 range.
Three macro levels to a speculative buyThree possible supports on Exxon at COVID-19 lows, wait price acceptance at each level.
XOM - Walk the plankThe american oil industry is on the verge of collapse, at least when we look at Exxon Mobil ... NYSE:XOM
I have great interest in the american oil industry companies such as Exxon Mobil or Chevron, both have made enormous losses since Covid-19 hit the world.
Both Stocks are extremely cheap right now and are possibly setting up for a +100% rallye , at least if we don't break the previous lows.
In the last days i spent several hours looking at the chart and price action of Exxon Mobil , i came to the conclusion that we have formed a very big 1-2 Setup.
Primary scenario: Likelyhood 55%
We are forming a solid 1-2 setup and are setting us up for a 30% rallye to the price target of green wave 1.
Alternative scenario: Likelyhood 45%
My alternative scenario will get triggered if we break the previous low @32.21$, Exxon Mobil will get slaughtered again.
A drop of 15%-20% is very likely and will crush many bullish expectations.
Beware that i don't have any open long positions, i will wait for a solid bullish impulse and then announce my entries!
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If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact me.
LONG XOMExpecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
Exxon (XOM)XOM back to where it was in 1997. I always hear people say I own XOM because its a "good company" or because it pays a good "dividend". I'll pass, I'd rather put my money where it makes money.
Double BottomPossible stop below 32.15
Possible T2 64.2 to 73
Price is close to long entry level but there is not a confirmed uptrend/Both have to be in place for this pattern to be valid
Not a recommendation
XOM long1st time longing oil stocks, looks like a nice knife catching opportunity as I inticipated oil to bounce of critical support.
Working well so far, will hold most of position until TP2 as long as oil moves higher.
$XOM keeps falling but it can be long chance targeting 60 SL 30Oversold indicators - underperform broad market and almost near March lows . need to be watched carefully as it can be good long opportunity if entered near 30s with long term target at 60 or (100%) . if break down 30 then possible to visit 20 or even 15 so the main condition is to hold above 30 which will form huge double bottoms pattern for long term bullish view and on other side if break down 30 will have deep crap targeting 50% discount.. its quite interesting that big company with good earning is falling like XOM but soon will know the reason behind. good luck
Exxon double bottom reversaldouble bottoms look similar to a W shape, and this one does. the first time price has failed to break the support level at 30.00 which is the first circle. thus if the second price fails to break support again at 30.00 the second time. then the market will possibly shift to an uptrend.
Note: Price does not necessarily have to respect the support level at 30.00 to consider it as a double bottom it may go to 28 or so and still be a double bottom. make sure to analyse yourself, that's important.
does anyone agree with my outlook? feel free to share ideas.
XOM Long, at Demand Zone High quality Fresh Demand Zone ;
RSI Divergence
Entry 33
Stop 30
Target 41; reward:risk=2.5:1
Target 46; reward:risk=4:1
10/30/2020 Earning. Normally, one day before earning, IV will be higher.
I will try option strategy according to earning.
See detailed steps in Trade Active section.
I am not a PRO trader. I need few months to practice trading strategies.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it, until my trading plans get high winning rate.
