LONG XOMExpecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
XOM trade ideas
Exxon Mobil supply and demand analysis forecastExxon Mobil Corporation #XOM Exxon explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. As of December 31, 2018, it had approximately 24,696 net operated wells with proved reserves of 24.3 billion oil-equivalent barrels.
Exxon stock clear downtrend. With Light Crude Oil and Brent dropping like a rock, many oil related stocks like Exxon Mobil Corporation have been showing a bearish directional bias with long term shorts and new monthly supply imbalances being created and respected for months as can be seen in the monthly timeframe supply and demand technical analysis below.
We read about “buy” recommendations not long ago, that was crazy! Those recommendations were probably focused on the price of oil as the reason the share price is down, with an assumption that it will go back up. Cray stuff if you lean purely on fundamentals and earnings, everything is pointing down and downtrending, why buy this stock? Think about it! It is all about the XOM price (cheap in the eyes of those urging “buy”) and an assumption that the price of oil is almost the only relevant determinant of future success of XOM.
Two major negatives for Exxon Mobil Corporation currently are competition from renewables and new focus on the climate emergency. Investors might think hard before they assume that the new 10-year low for Exxon Mobile XOM share price is where the slide stops.
Using a supply and demand strategy and applying the core concepts on Exxon Mobile yields another outcome. Monthly is downtrending, new supply level being created on the monthly timeframe around $68 per share as a continuation of a monthly downtrend and created also as a continuation of prior monthly supply imbalance from $80 per share.
Elliott Wave View: Downside Target for Exxon MobilElliott wave view in Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) suggests that the sequence from April 23, 2019 high (not visible in the short term chart below) is incomplete. Medium term downside target for the stock is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from April 23, 2019 high which comes at 52 – 56.1. XOM thus remains favored to the downside and rally should fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing. Shorter cycle, the decline from January 3, 2020 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse and the stock is currently within final wave ((v)) of the move lower.
Down from January 3, 2020 high (71.37), wave ((i)) ended at 68.63 and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 69.96. The stock has resumed lower and ended wave ((iii)) at 63.4 and bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 64.88. Exxon Mobil is in the final leg wave ((v)) lower thus it is a little risky to chase the weakness in the shorter cycle. Near term, as far as the bounce fails below 64.88, further downside still can’t be ruled out before XOM ends the 5 waves down.
The 5 waves move down should end wave 3 in larger degree and the stock should then bounce in wave 4 to correct the cycle from January 3, 2020 high before the decline resumes again. We don’t like buying the stock.
XOM, a decade low with a bullish gartleyXOM just had a disappointing earning report and Goldman downgraded it,
with such a weak oil price..
There are many facts for this oil giant to drop, showing terrible relative weakness in a bull market like 2019.
Still, I'm willing to look for chances for some position in this name as a buy-low opportunity,
the important spot will be around 56, to see if there are any kind of reversal sign for me to long.
A bullish gartley that took 10 years to form!?
I'll be interested in it carefully yo.
Let's see how it goes!
XOMConfirm a break in the long term uptrend.
What price would you suggest an entry?
Personally I am looking at 45.5 range.
XOM - GS SELL CALL!XOM is absolutely stinking it up. Looking for support at 10 and 13 year lows around $56.25. Goldman calls it a sell with a price target of 59. Multiple FIB resistance at $57-59 I think this a head fake before the next leg up. Looks like 5% downside and potential for much more upside. You have to see it though. Haven't bought any yet but watchlist item for sure. A break of the $56 level could be ominous.
XOM POTENTIAL LONGI would like to see a retest of the $67 area before falling to the area of $56 to execute longs. Lines perfectly with a support level.
$XOM possible spring$XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation is expected to report earnings on 01/31/2020 before market open. Possible spring before earnings?
XOM does not look good. This time no EW counts. I am digging and dusting off my old XOM H&S chart. With oil not being able to even bounce I think the time has come for a big short on XOM. Usually, XOM weathers low oil prices pretty well, better than others. But now the chart suggests something ugly may happen to XOM.
XOM – Flat Bottom Wedge – Watching For BreakoutPer request from someone.
I am overall neutral here, but see bullish potential either February (price breakout of wedge) or October (pattern close to complete).
Trade Entry
Stop $69.70 – which is 10WeekMA.
Exit - $74 or see how price reacts getting towards resistance of wedge.
Chart Details
Bullish flat bottom wedge pattern.
Gaps to fill up to $84.
Watch RSI breaking trend (below 50).
Price is above 10WeekMA and has Bullish EMA Cross, but looks fragile.
I see the price going up short term to retest the resistance.
Then going back into wedge, possibly retesting the $67 low.
My opinion - This could be due to Iran conflict. Initial response will be spike in price. USA can produce for cheaper than importing, so once Permian basin cranks up production publicly price will drop again with cheaper US oil. It may take a month for the US to restart heavier production once oil prices go up. If I were a US oil producer, I would wait for price to go up from conflict BEFORE increasing production. More money.
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Time to get in to OIL and energy sectorThis is just one of major oil companies which is undervalued. But The whole energy and oil/gas sector both mid cap and large cap are underperforming for the past years.
Time to get long in to that.
Technicals of this specific company: a simple break out.
Political situation: Oil is emotional /political risk asset and now we have major escalation with US/IRAN and Oil fields in mid east are at major risk. Also US oil production showed weakness in recent months, further decreasing the supply.
Exoon Mobil. Multiple strategy to long and short profitablyBoth the demand Zone and supply zone are cleary marked out and with the long legged doji in action, there might be a potential eveining star formation.
Also, the strong demand zone confluence with the 78.6% of the fibonacci level.
Exxon. Limited upside. Take a gamble insteadBullish Engulfing at the 50% retracement level may push the stock slightly higher.
Exxon at the floor, entry for long termAt big support, this is the place to take a position for a long term investment. If someone where to do so...
Buy zone marked with blue box.
Exxon Mobil (XOM)This stock has an high dividend yeld of 5.00% and regualr growth in the payout. In 2020, we look for a partial profit recovery on the strength of higher oil price and production.
Oil prices in recent years have been capped by the flood of production from shale reservoirs, but following a meeting in Vienna, OPEC said the producer group would reduce supplies by an additional 500,000 barrels per day, bringing the total cuts to 1.7 million barrels daily.
Total debt: 40 Bil. Total annual profit: 20 Bil. (2018)
XOM: Long oil stocks now...I think we have many interesting companies that show big accumulation bases that can rally nicely with oil during and after January 2020.
$XOM is one of them, risk is a $3 drop from here, to make it to the target on chart at least, but could be twice as big of a rally in this timeframe too.
Over time, there's a chance of a monthly basing pattern to confirm a trend, which would align with what I see in $USOIL.
Big speculative trends are about to get in motion during 2020, I think many will be related to $USOIL rallying, like solar names, $TSLA and other EV related stocks (battery tech and materials, etc) and Emerging market stocks like $ARGT, $EEM, $EWZ, Singapore, Vietnam, and individual names in energy with solid charts and valuations.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
