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Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index

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BVOL24H trade ideas

BTC topping out around low 50s then coming to test 28-34k = MOONHello, Green money flow curling up. I see alot of resistance ahead . BTC seems to be gasing out. I see a top out at low 50s because of the thick resistance. This would line up perfectly with what market cipher (lower indicator) Creating a smaller wave (marked yellow bottom) which then sends us to the moon with a thick green money flow wave. All of this perfectly times with the 2025 halving , multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 which could tank the market and more wars, covid before elections ETC. 100k is the dream but im realistic and my track record shows. I shorted 46k in March 2022 when everyone was longing, proof in my "ideas"
BITMEX:XBTLong
by Ripmangojuul
4
Bitcoin $52kBull to bear perspective for the next year and a half. 52.3k rejection and an assessment to see if the recent parabolic trend breaks, if so structure needs to be assessed for potential head and shoulder formations. Downside target could be as low as 7.2k. Always assess risk and always be prepared to be wrong. The downside drop is contingent of a bearish outlook on the stock market, and for the interest rate hikes over the last year to finally take effect. Also the swing from 3k to 69k, it would be ideal for price to rationalise this sudden rise by coming to the lower levels sub 10k before commencing the actual big bull. For now, enjoying these mini bull and bear cycles seem to be the name of the game rather than hodling and hoping. Further, a rejection at 52.3k in January would be the ideal time for an ETF approval, as we have seen approvals lead to large declines in the past. :D
BITMEX:XBT
by TheCheartBreaker
How it has been going and how it isCurrently my prediction for the last 6months has been fairly close with the price movements, we fell into the accumulation zone and now I will be predicting the price movement until march. My predictions are off historical movement, not doing wyckoff, elliot wave, etc.. anymore as I have found that they are meaningless in the economic state of the world. 10-12k bottom I still feel is relevant wont see that until January or February, the way the price moves to those levels are irrelevant as well, as long as we get to those levels. I will become a bulltard again when we get to those levels as I see a lot of the market over extension being over by that time and then the shorts will then be at risk capitulating the price as they get wiped from the order books. Instead of being scared at those price levels do what everyone else is NOT doing BUY and hold til Sept of 2025 and you'll be happy. Over and out. -KewlKat
BITMEX:XBTLong
by kewlkat
Another opportunity to short XBTBITMEX:XBT has been touching the area of 25'980 USD, for a couple of days showing a huge support around that area. However, in theory with each touch on the area its gonna be debilitated. In sum, I think it's a matter of days when we broke again to the downside having an opportunity for a short (if you are not already or in cash). The move it's gonna be tricky. My strategy is the following: 1) If we touch again the area in consideration I will put a short with a Stop Loss (SL) with a medium conservatism waiting for a quick rebound (as in previous cycles). 2) I will close 25 % of my position at 24'000 and keep taking profit every 1'000 USD until getting to 75 %. I will keep updating this idea as the market evolves rapidly.
BITMEX:XBTShort
by ocramanilom
Bitcoin Volatility Near Historic Lows, Large Move Coming SoonBitcoin has dropped to historically low levels of volatility. Typically this means a very large move in either direction is going to happen relatively soon. How soon exactly is not clear, maybe 1-4 weeks. This also doesn't indicate which direction the market will move, just that a breakout is likely coming soon. Take your pick on which direction it is going to go, or wait for a clear breakout. Personally, I am biased to the downside. What I'm seeing now are bearish momentum divergences, bearish time targets, bearish Elliott Wave counts, bearish price action indicators, bearish moving averages, very positive sentiment (which is bearish, in particular clear manias formed in memecoins and NFTs again), and fundamental bearishness (market makers leaving, regulatory risk increasing, crypto banks going under, on-ramps closing, and over-leveraged holders like MSTR, DCG, and some major miners still not forced out), there's also macroeconomic risk with global rates going higher and no sign of a Fed rate cut until at least late 2024. If this does clearly break to the upside I will be ready to flip long because we could see a move to around $40k in that case (bear market will probably resume after that). A break to the downside likely means we'll continue with my forecasted bear market ($10k in early 2024, $3-5K in 2025), and this will be a long-term top for the next ~2 years. Options Straddle An advanced trading strategy to take advantage of this particular situation is called an "Options Straddle." This is a non-directional bet which is essentially long volatility. Since volatility virtually always increases after reaching a low point, this strategy aims to profit from an increase in volatility regardless of the direction in which the market moves. To enter into an options straddle, you simultaneously buy a Call and Put option with the same expiration at the money. Example Buy Sept29th 29k Call for $1560 + Buy Sept29th 29k Put for $1060 Breakeven Price Calculation For Bull Scenario = Strike Price of the Call + Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put 29,000+1,560+1,060 = $31,620 Breakeven Price Calculation For Bearish Scenario = Strike Price of the Put − (Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put) 29,000 - (1,560 + 1,060) = $26,380 So as you can see, anything above $31,620 or below $26,380 at the expiration time of the option will result in a profit. To calculate profit at the time of expiration, for each BTC options contract every $1 above the upper breakeven would be $1 of profit, and every $1 below the lower breakeven would be $1 in profit. However, due to extrinsic value, the trade could be profitable at a lower or higher price (respectively) if it is sold before the expiration date. Also, you can decrease/increase the respective breakeven prices by buying options which are cheaper (ie. they have earlier expiration dates), but this increases the risk that the price may not change significantly before the expiration date, which would result in a loss. Calculating Loss The MAX loss for this trade would occur if BTC is at exactly 29k when the options expire, resulting in a loss of 1,560+1060 = $2,620. If the underlying price is above the strike but below the bullish break-even: Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Underlying Price − Strike Price) If the underlying price is below the strike but above the bearish break-even: Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Strike Price − Underlying Price)
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by Intuit
WARNING! The BIGGEST BTC CRASH is so real for BITCOIN! U ready?!This is on a weekly timeframe, no more 1h or 4h timeframes... This is the REAL DEAL. The low 29k zone is an area where lot of people get burned. Please be careful here with long positions my friends. While I think that there is some steam to go up from previously confirmed patterns, the huge XXXL Rising Wedge raises immense concerns... My opinion is that we will have one more leg up because the Falling Wedge #2 will confirm and this will create so much Euphoria but eventually massively dump, possibly even to new lows around the 13k area. Crypto will be declared DEAD before the real amazing BULL RUN begins. Be careful my amigos this may be so brutal like nothing you have ever witnessed in this space.
BITMEX:XBTShort
by BTCeer
1
Whipsaw pattern!A whipsaw chart pattern is a type of price action that occurs when a security's price moves sharply in one direction, then quickly reverses and moves in the opposite direction. This can be a frustrating pattern for traders, as it can lead to losses if they enter or exit a trade at the wrong time. Whipsaw patterns are most common in volatile markets, where prices can fluctuate wildly. They can also occur in trending markets, but they are less common in these cases. There are two main types of whipsaw patterns: Trend reversals: These patterns occur when a security's price is in a strong trend and then suddenly reverses direction. For example, a stock that has been trending up for several days may suddenly reverse and start trending down. Rangebound markets: These patterns occur when a security's price is trading within a narrow range and then suddenly breaks out of the range in either direction. For example, a stock that has been trading between $10 and $11 for several weeks may suddenly break out to $12 or $9. Whipsaw patterns can be difficult to trade, but there are a few things that traders can do to minimize their risk: Use stop-loss orders: Stop-loss orders are a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price moves against the trader's position by a certain amount. This can help to limit losses if the trader is whipsawed. Trade with caution: Whipsaw patterns are unpredictable, so it is important to trade with caution when they occur. Traders should only enter trades that they are comfortable with and that they have a good risk-reward ratio. It is important to remember that no trading strategy is guaranteed to be successful. Whipsaw patterns can happen to anyone, even experienced traders. However, by following the tips above, traders can minimize their risk of being whipsawed.
BITMEX:XBTEducation
by Moshkelgosha
🔥 Bitcoin Volatility Lows: Massive Move GUARANTEED 🚨If you enjoy this analysis, please give it a like and a follow. I've made several analyses on Bitcoin's extremely low volatility over the last couple of weeks. In this analysis, I want to take a look at yet another metric that measures volatility: BVOL7D, on the daily chart. On the top chart, white, you find Bitcoin's historical volatility. On the bottom chart, orange, you find BTC's price on the log scale. Once BTC volatility reaches the yellow area, it indicates that volatility is extremely low. Historically, this has ALWAYS correctly predicted that a huge move was coming. Furthermore, 3 of the 4 previous moves were bullish. Keep in mind we can continue to trade sideways for some time. But, I can guarantee you that a big >20% move is coming in the next few weeks. The million dollar question will be whether we're going to pump or to dump. I've made multiple analyses on either potential direction recently, but my bias is to the bearish side. Happy to be proven wrong! Do you think we're going to see a big move soon? Which direction are you trading? Share your thoughts in the comments below 🙏
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by FieryTrading
22
INVERSE ADAM AND EVE + INVERSE BATMAN PATTERNS! BULLISH!Several bullish patterns! Slowly showing what patterns are in play here. Difficult to trade if you are new, but starting to make sense for someone who has been trading for several years. This will likely rip up as previously stated. That Batman pattern is not my imagination but an actual pattern traders use It is similar to a Head and Shoulders pattern except that in the Batman pattern, the Head structure is smaller and the shoulders (representing the ears) are larger :D
BITMEX:XBTLong
by BTCeer
$BTC -Range Bound *12hr- CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues trading within a Tight Range of 2K, dancing tango with range's bottom and ceiling, until it doesn't. 40.000$+ per #Bitcoin is not as far fetched from here, all Bitcoin gots to do is break current range to the upside before resuming higher. Besides that, the awaiting Feds Rate Hike decision will impact direction of CRYPTOCAP:BTC and other Financial Market sectors. Breaking down from the range, upcoming supports are EMA200 catching up to 12Hr(tf), Demand Zone during impulsive price action in 1Hr(tf) + a small support trendline. If all these zones fail to provide support assuming a range breakdown headed South, watch for S/R zone 24K-25K to catch a decent bounce, welcoming great probability outcome Longing on Derivatives . Remain Patient ! Until the next confirmation TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice . Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea
BITMEX:XBT
by Mr_J__fx
BITCOIN in July: Can we finally FLY (!!?!!) 🚀✨✨✨✨Wishes for a nice week and here we go with our new tradition: Our Monthly Chart and Prognosis. Starting in May with March Madness 2023. Destination Houston 🚀✨ (Link: ) and indeed March was pure Madness with a big dip and a much higher PUMP! April's COOL 🌷🌞(31k or more) was also a nice success as the price did go exactly where we said it would: the 31k! Link: 'Buy the dip in May and Chart a thriving Trade'.. indeed it was the month that we saw a dip and we bought it. Success! Link: BITCOIN in June? How about a Moon BOOM 🚀✨✨✨✨ Again, the title was good as the price did fly from below 26k back to 31k Link: www.tradingview.com Here we are at July and BTC keeps attempting to break over 31k. Will it succeed? Most likely yes and we see 35200 as the next resistance. Can it fail and go lower? It can but not the most likely scenario. In case 30200 is lost then the price can dip lower to 26k$ (less than 25% likelihood). I am Long over here, that does not change. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 👩‍💼📚
BITMEX:XBTLong
by FX_Professor
3