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Bitcoin Historical Volatility IndexBitcoin Historical Volatility IndexBitcoin Historical Volatility Index

Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index

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BVOL7D trade ideas

Bitcoin Volatility Near Historic Lows, Large Move Coming SoonBitcoin has dropped to historically low levels of volatility. Typically this means a very large move in either direction is going to happen relatively soon. How soon exactly is not clear, maybe 1-4 weeks. This also doesn't indicate which direction the market will move, just that a breakout is likely coming soon. Take your pick on which direction it is going to go, or wait for a clear breakout. Personally, I am biased to the downside. What I'm seeing now are bearish momentum divergences, bearish time targets, bearish Elliott Wave counts, bearish price action indicators, bearish moving averages, very positive sentiment (which is bearish, in particular clear manias formed in memecoins and NFTs again), and fundamental bearishness (market makers leaving, regulatory risk increasing, crypto banks going under, on-ramps closing, and over-leveraged holders like MSTR, DCG, and some major miners still not forced out), there's also macroeconomic risk with global rates going higher and no sign of a Fed rate cut until at least late 2024. If this does clearly break to the upside I will be ready to flip long because we could see a move to around $40k in that case (bear market will probably resume after that). A break to the downside likely means we'll continue with my forecasted bear market ($10k in early 2024, $3-5K in 2025), and this will be a long-term top for the next ~2 years. Options Straddle An advanced trading strategy to take advantage of this particular situation is called an "Options Straddle." This is a non-directional bet which is essentially long volatility. Since volatility virtually always increases after reaching a low point, this strategy aims to profit from an increase in volatility regardless of the direction in which the market moves. To enter into an options straddle, you simultaneously buy a Call and Put option with the same expiration at the money. Example Buy Sept29th 29k Call for $1560 + Buy Sept29th 29k Put for $1060 Breakeven Price Calculation For Bull Scenario = Strike Price of the Call + Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put 29,000+1,560+1,060 = $31,620 Breakeven Price Calculation For Bearish Scenario = Strike Price of the Put − (Premium paid for the Call + Premium paid for the Put) 29,000 - (1,560 + 1,060) = $26,380 So as you can see, anything above $31,620 or below $26,380 at the expiration time of the option will result in a profit. To calculate profit at the time of expiration, for each BTC options contract every $1 above the upper breakeven would be $1 of profit, and every $1 below the lower breakeven would be $1 in profit. However, due to extrinsic value, the trade could be profitable at a lower or higher price (respectively) if it is sold before the expiration date. Also, you can decrease/increase the respective breakeven prices by buying options which are cheaper (ie. they have earlier expiration dates), but this increases the risk that the price may not change significantly before the expiration date, which would result in a loss. Calculating Loss The MAX loss for this trade would occur if BTC is at exactly 29k when the options expire, resulting in a loss of 1,560+1060 = $2,620. If the underlying price is above the strike but below the bullish break-even: Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Underlying Price − Strike Price) If the underlying price is below the strike but above the bearish break-even: Loss = Total Premium Paid − (Strike Price − Underlying Price)
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by Intuit
🔥 Bitcoin Volatility Lows: Massive Move GUARANTEED 🚨If you enjoy this analysis, please give it a like and a follow. I've made several analyses on Bitcoin's extremely low volatility over the last couple of weeks. In this analysis, I want to take a look at yet another metric that measures volatility: BVOL7D, on the daily chart. On the top chart, white, you find Bitcoin's historical volatility. On the bottom chart, orange, you find BTC's price on the log scale. Once BTC volatility reaches the yellow area, it indicates that volatility is extremely low. Historically, this has ALWAYS correctly predicted that a huge move was coming. Furthermore, 3 of the 4 previous moves were bullish. Keep in mind we can continue to trade sideways for some time. But, I can guarantee you that a big >20% move is coming in the next few weeks. The million dollar question will be whether we're going to pump or to dump. I've made multiple analyses on either potential direction recently, but my bias is to the bearish side. Happy to be proven wrong! Do you think we're going to see a big move soon? Which direction are you trading? Share your thoughts in the comments below 🙏
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by FieryTrading
22
Bitcoin: Volatitly cylce at the lowsVolatility on bitcoin is still very low, so there is no real interest in the crypto space which is normal in a risk-off environment. Keep in mind that everything is linked to FED policy, which is in a hawkish cycle right now, so higher yields, mean higher costs, thus its less free cash to be invested into the cryptos, stocks, etc. However, this hawkish cycle may come to an end if economic conditions will worsen in weeks and months ahead. A recession should force FED to slow down the hawks, and that's when new cycle will be seen in the markets. Ideally, this will be later this year or in 2023. That's when stocks could find a base and cryptos bounce away from the support as volatily may increase.
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by ew-forecast
1
Posible Volatility chart strategyAs we can see from the chart when volatility breaks the support trend line it tends to fall to 2.47 mark. When it does in a bear market, first touch (blue vertical line) of 2.47 mark signaled the short trade and the second touch signaled the long trade. In a bull market as we can see both touches signaled the long trade. My strategy is to buy first signal with tight stop loss and second all in :) Let me know your thoughts. Cheers and happy trading
BITMEX:BVOL7D
by MarkoAbramovic
1
Bitcoin 1d volatility about to roll over, watch out for a dumpBITMEX:BVOL7D BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BVOL7D (Bitcoins 7 day volatility index) is signalling a TD sequential 9 sell on the daily. This thing is very reliable. This relief rally is also a joke. We are stuck on the BTC-USD (Bitstamp) chart at the volume weighted index to, and cannot break above it. There are also dozens of smaller confluence signals suggesting a sell. Suckers will assume that we have broken out of the descending channel and that we are now bullish. We aren't. I am expecting the next move down to fill the CME gap. All bets are off thereafter. We may dump further.
BITMEX:BVOL7DShort
by UnknownUnicorn1846081
Trend reversal on Bitcoin and ALTS 01/08/2020I am expecting a trend reversal on Bitcoin and ALTS tomorrow, 01/08/2020. This is due to the high likelihood of Bitcoin 7 day volatility printing a TD sequential 9. In recent Bitcoin price history then has been the top of trend reversals (to the upside or the downside). In addition to that is horizontal resistance of around 11.4k, from both 2017 and 2019 and generally over brought conditions. There is also the large CME gap at around $9.6k. With all of the moon boy behaviour at the moment a good long squeeze is called for. I am expecting a swift move back down to under 10k, starting 01/08/2020 and lasting for several days to a week at least. It may even retrace heavily. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BITMEX:BVOL7D
BITMEX:BVOL7DShort
by UnknownUnicorn1846081
Broke this channel like a loli angusViacoin MAN thinks that this is going to lead to a good bull run where those with brass balls can make profits and get aroused by funds. If everyone thinks they will realize that we have been locked in a channel in the BVOL7D and we haven't seen much action as a result of this. Normally when this indicator his a low, we see some aggressive and arousing movements. Viacoin MAN is long on XBTUSD (entry 6056.2) and XBTZ18(6160.5) with 10x. He feels comfy and will take profit after this breakout. He is also looking at some consolidation happening now so extra funds from his XBTUSD funding are really neat, RNR wrote an article on this. The next run up from BVOL7D will help Viacoin MAN determine the momentum of this move. He wants to maximize his gains and doesn't what to be caught like a fool HODLing a contract. If you look at the alts, they are suffering from blueballs and this is going to get $BTC excited.
BITMEX:BVOL7DLong
by ViacoinMAN