3S9 trade ideas
Undervalued Opportunity for Sunrun
As we have all been impacted of the recent stock market decrease, I've been closely monitoring the price behavior of RUN, which has exhibited an intriguing pattern. The stock experienced a halt in its decline after reaching the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests a strong pullback may have occurred at that point. Taking a comprehensive approach by considering general analysis, I believe that RUN currently offers an attractive opportunity. In my personal opinion, the stock appears undervalued when compared to its 52-week price range.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that the P/E ratio for RUN is relatively high, indicating that investors are willing to pay a significant premium for each unit of earnings generated by the company. This signifies positive market sentiment and a potential expectation of high growth for Sunrun.
Looking ahead, it's anticipated that Sunrun will announce its financial statements for the second quarter of 2023 in August. This upcoming release adds another element of interest for investors considering an entry at this point.
Note: This analysis represents my personal opinion and understanding and should not be considered as financial advice. It's always advisable to consult with a professional financial advisor or conduct independent research before making investment decisions.
RunThis is another I have some hopes in still reasearching and watching... took profit looking to reneter
FYI ONLY HERE must do the research
Fibonacci level acting as a level of resistance
The retracement tool has shown remarkable significance as the price encountered strong resistance precisely at the 50% level.
Embracing the Bullish Market Structure of RUN (Sunrinc.inc)
RUN has previously confirmed his overall bullish market structure by creating sub sequential Higher high and Higher low, we might expect a reversal or a strong trend continuation after price has passed between 21.48 and 20.60 $.
Sun Run Pushing up from Discount Price?Sun Run NASDAQ:RUN is pushing up from the 'Discount Sale Price'. It is 50 - 100% away from previous highs. How far will it go?
SUNRUN Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042023Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 20.2/61.80%
SunRun to $30+
The TA is simple.
RUN has fallen below it's trend line and I believe this is unjustified in light of the companies fundamentals.
Solar and energy are hot markets as public pressure weighs on fossil fuel companies.
SunRun has solid earnings through a very bearish 2022,
and despite being not far off from First Solar in revenue, RUN hasn't received anywhere close to the same love from the bulls.
This is a high conviction trade for me
Target HKEX:30 +
Has FUD ended?Sunrun has been sold heavily after the news about SVB. I think FUD affected SUNRUN heavily. The chart is showing that we are at the support. Summer is near as well. We may see a recovery from here. Targets would be 24 and 28. Then breaking the wedge would be hudge!
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$RUN rangebound & close to major supportSUNRUN beat expectations but rates can be problem into the future
This is a good long term sector
$RUN has been rangebound for a long time
Close to MAJOR support & risk reward is good imo
Picked some up this morning
#solar #energy #stocks
SHORT RUN? maybe when it was $60RUN has been range bound since Feb 2022, and trading down into long terms support levels where is is repeatedly bought.
The professional entry here was opening a short position at $60 once the double top rejection was confirmed. Chasing this down and entering at the 1 year support level seems dangerous, and somewhat cavalier. I am not advocating a long position here either.
The best decision here is to wait for a break below support, with 2 daily candle close confirmation, or wait for a clear reversal pattern, to enter long. My personal opinion is to find a better ticker with a better setup. no reason to risk capital on this lack of set up.
RUN is at an inflection point. The direction of the break out of this triangle should decide which way RUN is gonna run.
RUN hedged options strategyThere are lots of bullish arguments to make for solar stocks this year, including the Inflation Reduction Act and global demand, especially in Europe. California-based Sunrun designs, installs, sells and maintains residential solar panels directly to customers. Other business areas include battery storage, leasing energy services, and a "virtual power plant" with installed Sunrun panels actually exporting energy back to the grid. Relatively few homes have solar panels installed, but homeowners are increasingly interested in them and associated tax benefits, making growth potential in this area of the clean energy market quite high.
Technically-minded traders might also wonder if RUN stock will repeat its falling wedge pattern, and possibly even see a double bottom forming. On the other hand, with over $5 billion in debt (as of March 2021) and Fed interest rate hikes adversely affecting tech and growth stocks, is Sunrun the safest place to park money right now?
This hedged options strategy protects from a fall of up to 32% as of 8/18/23 and also makes up to 25% (44% annualized).
Buy 1 $20 call
Sell 1 $27.50 call
Sell 2 $15 put
Expiring Aug 18, 2023
Capital requirement: $2994
RUN away as fast as you canSometimes you get a trade idea that gives you both fundamentals and technicals coming together. I think this is one of those.
RUN Technical Thesis:
With the primary thesis on this trade being the fundamental story, it's nice to have some technical confluence here.
✅ Bare minimum I see this coming to a 61.8% fib retracement giving you PT 1.
✅ Head and shoulders pattern giving you a measured move for PT 2.
✅ Price target 3 will be your 2017 lows.
RUN Fundamental Thesis:
Sunrun has the largest market share in the Residential solar sector. 1/3 of all residential solar is in California and in April 2023 they are implementing NEM 3.0. What is NEM? NEM (Net Energy Metering) is basically the incentives that the state gives when you generate excess power. Under NEM 3.0 the savings will be more than cut in half - making it much less enticing to install solar. On a cash install your $18 power bill goes to a $96 power bill.
So why Sunrun? They're the leader in solar residential, right? They've gotta be killing it! They have massive revenue growth and look to be net income positive, right? Yeah, but their COGS are growing faster than their revenue growth.
Enter their cash flow statement. This is what made me pick RUN for the short. One big thing stuck out to me in their cash flow statement. The cash from investing activities section is where you would put acquisitions, general capex, etc. Within that subsection you have Purchase/sale of business, net. You want to see a growing company making small acquisitions, but Sunrun has a large and growing sale of business/fixed assets.
I brought this to my friend who is far more versed in financial statements than I am. His response was, "it’s bs for that company they are selling assets to try and stay alive."
Also, their balance sheet. 1B in cash on hand vs almost 7B in debt. How do they pay that off if they can't break even and make money? They raise capital by issuing shares, further diluting your share of the company and lowering the stock price. like they've been doing since 2015. From 101M share float to now 213M share float - meaning if you had owned this company in 2015, the percentage of the company you now own is less than half of what it was.
The play: shorting shares of RUN.
✅Take Profit 1: $14.06
✅Take Profit 2: $8.81
✅Take profit 3: $4.81
🛑Stop Loss: $34.64
RUN: ABOUT TO RUN IF TREND LINE BREAKSRUN (SUNRUN):
Stock in a downtrend since January 2021.
If you connect the highs you get this trend line .
Watch for RUN to break this line for a potential run to 37.65. Next targets are 50 and 58.9
Trade safe.
SUNRUN is my next 10x opportunitySunrun is a provider of photovoltaic systems and battery energy storage products, primarily for residential customers as per the official description about the company.
Solar business is a growing area and the company's financials are also improving in line with this growth trend.
The current market cap is around 5-6 billion USD and I think there will be more upside based on the positive market prospects and I am thinking a c.10x to a market cap of minimum 50 billion USD in the next years.
So, I am investing in this one for the long run.
Please comment if you have more insight about the company.
IMPORTANT: This is not a financial advice.
RUN ( Sunrun) and other solars ready to reverseDowntrending but with diminishing candle ranges and Dojis. The MACD oscillator
has lines crossed under the histogram. Currently priced more than one standard
deviation below VWAP and ready for entry.
See also ENPH, SEGD, SUNW, and the ETF- TAN.
$SUN looks ugly. Move to $9.22 incoming?Sunrun looks to be retesting/rejecting resistance here which would setup a large move lower.
I think we're about to see a move lower down to $9.22. Invalidation of this move would be a break and hold above resistance line and then channel. Even if there's a short term move higher above resistance, price would need to break above the channel to turn bullish.
I'd be careful if long.
RUN Solar Stock Uptrending from earningsRUN is benefiting from the federal incentives policies. As shown on the chart
Price has risen 48% since the earnings report which was quite favorable.
It is consistently above the Ichimoku cloud and is now in a consolidation.
I see this as a good swing-long setup with the stop loss under the cloud
or instead wait for a pullback. The target would be $37 at the swing high
in mid September or when relative strength hits 80 and shows a bearish
trend.
Bullish Shark on SunrunI think based off how things went with Oil prices rising that we will likely invest more into clean energy rather that's the right answer or not it seems like it will be the next logical step to prevent a similar situation in the future.
Right now we are at the PCZ of a Bullish Shark with Bullish Divergence on the weekly and i will be accumulating shares within this zone.
US Stock In Play: $RUN$RUN - Technology | Solar
broke out of a descending wedge during its most recent earnings report (QoQ growth in EPS and Sales) on high volume.
the past days of resilience in its price action tells alot of its strength in this market. already at RS high before price
RUN ready to breakout of stage 1RUN ready to breakout of stage 1. Part of the solar group leading the market. See TAN etf ready to break out.
$RUN Future Possibilities At resistance like most stocks currently. Rejection here sends it back into the low $20s. Breakout, look to exit around $60 when the next earnings report releases in Nov.
