Visa $V Rejecting off top channel resistance -- BearishGiven FOMC is behind us now and the market is most likely following another leg down I'm expecting a top line rejection off of the large channel on the daily.
Rejected off the 200d MA of $218.11. Expect continuing rejection if we get a dead cat recovery at this point, but ultimately I see this impulse retracing back down. Notice the W pattern several bars before with a clear rejection off the top resistance with the large wick a few days prior.
MACD is making lower highs, RSI is coming back down and about to cross the signal to the bearish side. Stochastic is losing steam as well starting to fall from overbought territory. VI+ looks like its done making an engulfing void to the upside, which indicates that a reversal pattern with VI- is probably around the corner. TTM squeeze looks like its starting to apex as well.
Looking at the fib retrace from the previous low to high, and also following an extension downwards from previous high impulse to recent low and recent high we are looking at support levels of 0.236 at ~ $202.81 and 201.26 which is more or less where current price action is. Therefore expect the next couple of fib supports/resistances to be hit on both the retracement as well as the downward extension.
Retracement supports are as follow --
0.382 $194.42
0.5 $193.06
0.618 $188.70
Fib Extension resistances are as follow --
0.382 $194.91
0.5 $189.79
0.618 $184.66
Looking at the volume profile we see a good shelf of support up to the 0.5 fib extension.
Look for downward movement over the next 6 daily bars (10 days). Price action must clear the support shelf at $200 to continue downwards, otherwise expect sideways action between $200-203.
PT1: -6 pts -2.99% to the 0.382 extension ~ $194.91
PT2: -11.11 pts -5.33% to the 0.5 extension ~ $190 -- I think this is where $V will find support and probably start heading sideways.
Max PT: -16.11 pts -8.03% to the 0.618 fib extension ~ $185 -- Long shot, will have to continuously monitor to see how we move along with the macro and how the volume profile shapes up over the next few days.
Stop loss: ~$203.50 +1.53% from current action -- This would be the last stop on the volume profile upwards where the next would be a gap towards the upside.
