6/4/24 - $crwd - the bar is too high; need a better setup 4 long6/4/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:CRWD - going to recycle a lot of the same logic i employed before i started publishing from late april. stock is in the same place. the issue really is a factor one since we've seen most of the other cyber and B2B report good #s and stocks struggle. even NASDAQ:ZS , one of my top picks good #s, good guide, half the multiple of NASDAQ:CRWD and dumped from the open.
conclusion: be careful here fam. it will be hard to buy a breakout in this tape, esp in such an important macro week (*cough* friday jobs) and where the upside is probably 10% (which you'd take off the table immediately) and the downside is 10-25% all else equal.
I'd guess the result is great and the reaction blows. that's my pt. i'm not bearish the name; i'd own it. but just not here, not now.
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repost my private comment:
4/26/24 - vrockstar - simply too expansive for 70x PE and 30-40% EPS cagr at most. 1.5% FCF fwd yield if i give credit for 1.5 bn on an EV of 70 ish is again probably "worth" the price assuming they can keep the momentum but this just seems like a steep ask in the current tap esp after the last print got sold hard and the stock has struggled to make new highs. would defn b a high quality LT pickup but need something of a discount here so setting the first level to re-address a take-look at slightly above 250. keep in mind fwd sales multiple here is probably still 12-13x which is super rich but could justify. have hard time paying 17x like today
