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49G trade ideas

ONON/NKE BETA HEDGELove the growth on ONON , don't like the price action on daily , today was a good example . I decided that instead of trading this as a one sided long , I can potentially fix that problem by shorting nike at the same time as its currently weak and looking in trouble to me .... This way instead of being as dependant on price action I can instead just focus on spread and make a bet that ONON will do better than NIKE . The plan will be to add another position if we touch my stop on this shown and try to get out break even or hold . The exit point will be an extra deviation in that case .... As this is a spread trade I am not able to set stops but that is the point and I will follow my rules .... I had to undersize to plan for my scale in risk management compared to my prior ONON trade ( which I lost ) .... So, the ideal goal will be to hold this as long as possible and when I see a change in the trend structure to bearish , sell ....but hopefully by then this has made me a good return ... I want to see ONON stay above its green line breakout though and for the spread to not be losing more than one typical stop loss value at -2R, after my scale in at 1R. After I scale in at 1R , I am only in the trade to get out at BE too ... Then I will re-assess another entry based on theme and spread of ONON/NKE....
NYSE:ONONLong
by NAK1987
3
ONON, Once rejected by NIKE, now coming for NIKEONON is a relatively new stock. However, the brand started in 2010 and it was actually even turned down years ago by NIKE years ago ( which I think makes it's emergence even better ) . Today, I had a meeting with a builder I provide services for .He was wearing these shoes , had great things to say about them too . He's an very active guy , does 50 k bike ride daily . Then when I was buying gas on the way home the attendant had these shoes on too ! He is the opposite of my builder likes to go home and chill after work , watch tv , eat some snacks ect ect ( I normally chat with him when I buy gas ) ,The gas attendant said he loved the shoes too and that they were actually " the comfiest shoes he has ever had" . At this point I was realizing that today my trip into town potentially had a new unexpected purpose... I have had a list for the last week down to only 3 names and they were NFLX,NVDA and ONON. I was 99% set on NFLX to startup a new swing account dedicated to only one name at a time, these daily events actually enticed me to change over to ONON and I figured that was worth a writeup. I looked at the chart again in after hours and decided to take my first trade and commit to ONON. The stock has the eps/sales and story and I think its a TML ... I'm excited and have some conviction for it now after today ... I am hoping it does well , my criteria to trade it is that it must stay above the most recent GLB line , here it is shown in green . This wiki article is a good one if your interested ...talks about NIKE part too ... en.wikipedia.org(company)#:~:text=On%20was%20first%20incorporated%20as,Swiss%20professional%20triathlete%20Nicola%20Spirig.
NYSE:ONONLong
by NAK1987
1
8/12/24 - $onon - long into print at $408/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:ONON long into print at $40 - expensive at nearly 40x '25 EPS even tho '25/'24 implied cons. growth is only single digits - playing w fire a bit - but the google trends are genuinely on fire and even tho deckers' Hoka's are crushing (also NYSE:DECK had good EPS), on chart looks pretty stellar too trends.google.com - 6 to 8 days to cover depending on the source you're looking at. i get it - once upon a time i'd short this thing too. however, i sense we'll get another beat, another upward revision to PE. - not outright owning this tho given the tape seems v toppy and we'll see some (probably fake) war news any day now. that being said, i like this position into the open i've got the weekly 39C's. wish this degen a bit of luck on the play. and GL to those whichever side you're on. V
NYSE:ONONLong
by VROCKSTAR
On Cloud Just Got Even More Interesting - I'm Watching CloselyI have been watching On Cloud and love their shoes. I wear them all the time now. In-fact, I bought some shares a while ago simply because I enjoyed wearing them so much. The chart above highlights some other levels I am watching if this trade can keep up: 1. The company's resurgence above its IPO price indicates a renewed investor interest, suggesting a positive sentiment towards its growth prospects. 2. Moreover, its expanding presence in the US markets signifies a broader consumer base and potential for increased revenue streams. This widening adoption could be indicative of a strong market position and strategic initiatives driving market penetration. 3. One of the standout factors contributing to On Cloud's appeal is its transition into a premium brand. Establishing oneself as a premium brand in a competitive market is no easy feat, highlighting the company's ability to deliver superior products and capture consumer loyalty. This shift not only enhances brand value but also opens up opportunities for higher margins and sustained growth over time. However, despite these positive indicators, there are key technical aspects that investors should monitor closely including the following: 1. The need to surpass a recent prior high, maintain controlled volume levels, and ensure the upward slope of moving average ribbons are all critical factors that could validate On Cloud's bullish trajectory. 2. Keeping an eye on these metrics will be essential for investors to gauge the sustainability of On Cloud's upward momentum. 3. Additionally, with established giants like Nike, Under Armour, and possibly Adidas in the mix, On Cloud's ability to carve out a distinct market niche will be a key factor in its long-term success and investment attractiveness. This is a competitive space. I look forward to updating this chart 1+ year from now. This is a LONG TERM trade.
NYSE:ONON
by scheplick
👟💡 On Holding (ONON) Analysis 📈🔍Market Insights: On Holding NYSE:ONON , a global sports product developer, is demonstrating strong potential as it approaches a crucial resistance level within a bullish cup and handle formation, signaling possible substantial gains. Endorsements and Analyst Sentiment: The brand benefits from endorsements by high-profile athletes, including Roger Federer. Analysts like TD Cowen's John Kernan are bullish, with raised price targets and maintained buy ratings, indicating strong growth prospects. Expansion Plans: ONON's expansion into the Asia-Pacific market presents significant opportunities, with plans to open 100 new stores. The successful Cloudmonster franchise has driven robust sales, positioning ONON for further growth. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on ONON above the $30.50-$31.00 range. Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $51.00-$52.00, investors should monitor technical patterns and earnings reports for confirmation of this growth potential. 📊👟 Keep a close watch on On Holding's performance for investment opportunities! #ONON #SportsProducts 📉🔍
NYSE:ONONLong
by Richtv_official
Reach for the clouds? When it comes to running shoes Hoka, ON, Adidas, and Nike always come to mind. However, with looming growth pains on trying to maintain control over the struggling footwear and athletic apparel industry. NYSE:ONON seems to be a strong outlier in an extremely competitive market. This is my strategy: Using Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracement, we see a slight reduction in trade volume and volatility as the price drops below the SMA and nears the lower band. The price is currently $37.31. We can expect it to reach a price target of $38.43 (test strategy here) before retracement or reversal, as the shares may be near overbought status. This will give us $1.12 profit per share. Buy between: $37.27 to $37.91 Hold for the price to cross $38.29 for uptrend confirmation.
NYSE:ONON
by eakosah
On Running Stock Leaps 18.28% On Earnings BeatOn Holding ( NYSE:ONON ), the parent company of On Running, has reported earnings of 36 cents per share, more than doubling from the 17 cents reported last year. Revenue jumped nearly 20% to a record $561 million, although sales growth slowed for the fifth quarter in a row. FactSet analysts expected adjusted earnings to tick down 2 cents to 15 cents per share. On's direct-to-consumer sales increased 48.7% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, making up 37.5% of On's total net sales. On maintained its outlook of at least 30% net sales growth for the year and expects to achieve a gross profit margin of around 60% for the year. FactSet predicts 2024 an 87.5% earnings increase, to 75 cents per share, on 23% revenue growth to $2.511 billion. On Holdings ( NYSE:ONON ) reports first quarter 2024 results, with On surpassing CHF 500 million in a single quarter for the first time in its history. Total net sales reached CHF 508.2 million, a growth of 20.9% year-over-year and by 29.2% on a constant currency basis. The significant increase in DTC net sales, which now make up 37.5% of On's total net sales, and efficient inventory management support On's further expansion of its premium gross profit margin to 59.7%. The continued high demand for the On brand provides further confidence in the stated goals for 2024 and beyond. On reiterates its full year expectation of at least 30% growth in net sales on a constant currency basis, which translates to reported net sales of at least CHF 2.29 billion at current spot rates. Technical Outlook On Holdings shares ( NYSE:ONON ) closed up 18.28% on Tuesday's market trading which is moderately overbought with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 63. The stock has concurrently being in consolidation zones but has managed a 34.6% gain for the year through Tuesday's close.
NYSE:ONON
by DEXWireNews
5/13/24 - $onon - found a potential swing long (finally), small5/13/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ONON has always been a pretty expensive stock that i've watched but not owned (have only owned NASDAQ:CROX but also no longer any footwear). that being said, the setup in the quarter does look like a low bar. a. google trends impressive b. seasonal trends c. QoQ and d. stock back to where it "missed" last q. objectively there's no getting around 75c of EPS on cons. costing $30 bucks today - that's expensive. however, a beat on EPS and 2H > 1H revisions could objectively take this full year # to $1 and then you're looking at $1.5 next year (that's how the market would probably trade it), and then paying 30x on 1.5$ and discounted by 20% (to be conservative b/c the 1.5$ is probably not conservative per se) gives you a stock in the mid to high $30s. it's reasonably shorted too (7 days to cover from what i can sense - i used to be one of these shorts after IPO - but it was a tough swim and just got off that boat after they kept delivering). all else equal, i'm struggling to find potential long pops on EPS in this tape and i promise i'm NOT a bear (who can be with brrr forever), but this might be one to take a look at on the long side.
NYSE:ONONLong
by VROCKSTAR
ON Holding Faces Hurdles as Q4 Fall Short of ExpectationsOn Holding ( NYSE:ONON ), the parent company behind the Swiss shoemaker On Running, finds itself at a crossroads as its fourth-quarter earnings report disappoints investors, sending its stock price tumbling from near a buy point. Despite its optimistic outlook for 2024, the company's failure to meet earnings forecasts and sluggish revenue growth cast a shadow over its near-term prospects. Disappointing Financial Performance: On Running's Q4 earnings report revealed a stark contrast to expectations, with a quarterly loss of 6 cents per share compared to the anticipated 500% earnings growth to 12 cents per share. Revenue growth, albeit still positive, fell short of estimates for the fourth consecutive quarter, increasing by about 28% to $509 million, missing estimates of $516.8 million. This marked a significant deviation from the company's previous quarters of exceptional growth, signaling potential headwinds ahead. Optimistic Outlook Amid Challenges: Despite the setback, On Running ( NYSE:ONON ) remains optimistic about its future prospects, forecasting a net sales growth rate of 30% for 2024 to reach 2.25 billion Swiss francs ($2.57 billion). The company attributes this growth to strong demand for its brand and product pipeline. Additionally, it anticipates direct-to-consumer net sales to grow by 26% in the first quarter, driven by strategic shifts in its distribution strategy. Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Analysts' views on On Holding's ( NYSE:ONON ) stock vary, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding its future performance. While Wedbush and Baird raised their price targets on NYSE:ONON stock, citing positive momentum and strong fundamentals, Redburn Atlantic downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. Redburn Atlantic's cautious stance underscores concerns about the company's valuation and the challenges facing the sportswear category in 2024. Navigating Forward: As On Holding ( NYSE:ONON ) navigates through turbulent waters, its strategic decisions regarding distribution channels and product launches will be closely scrutinized. The company's ability to address the discrepancies between its optimistic outlook and its recent financial performance will be critical in restoring investor confidence and sustaining its long-term growth trajectory. NYSE:ONON stock plummeted by about 16.41% on Tuesday market trading before the Q4 Results. Conclusion: On Holding's ( NYSE:ONON ) recent earnings miss underscores the challenges it faces in maintaining its growth momentum amidst evolving market dynamics. While optimism surrounding its brand and product offerings remains intact, the company must address investor concerns and demonstrate tangible progress in aligning its performance with its ambitious forecasts. As the sportswear industry navigates through uncertainty, On Holding's ability to adapt and execute its strategic initiatives will determine its success in the competitive landscape.
NYSE:ONONShort
by DEXWireNews
Navigating the Growth Trajectory of On Holdings, Cloud or bust?Navigating the Growth Trajectory of On Holdings, a Rising Star in Athletic Footwear Support Level: $23.86 Current Price: $27.70 Resistance Zone: $28.53 - $31.95 Target 1: $37.56 Resistance Level 1: $43.32 Resistance Level 2:46.27 Target 1 (Long Term): $50.94 Target 2 (Long Term): $71.96 On Holdings has rapidly become a market leader with its revolutionary On-Cloud running shoes, capturing global attention and propelling the company's valuation to an impressive 7.8 billion Swiss francs. The strategic focus on marketing and brand development has positioned On as a force to be reckoned with in the athletic footwear industry. The company's valuation metrics reveal a steep but justified premium: 6.4 times revenue, 139 times earnings, or 47 times EBITDA. This premium is a testament to On's exceptional growth trajectory. In the last 12 months, the company achieved revenue of 1.2 billion, a net income of 58 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of 165 million. Technical Analysis and Growth Metrics: On's exceptional growth is underscored by a staggering 69% increase in revenue from 2021 to 2022, with a further projected growth of 39% in 2023. Positive product reviews and robust Google search data further validate this growth momentum. In comparison to industry giants like Nike and Lululemon, On boasts strong gross margins of 56%, setting it apart as a formidable competitor. (Nike is just 44% and lululemon is 55% However, rapid expansion comes at a cost, and On's negative cash flow is attributed to its aggressive expansion in China and the opening of new stores. With 371 million in cash on the balance sheet, there's a likelihood that the company may seek additional capital for sustained growth. Sustainability as a Key Differentiator: On Holdings not only focuses on growth but also emphasizes sustainability. The latest shoe, incorporating 44% recycled materials, showcases the company's commitment to environmental responsibility. This dual emphasis on growth and sustainability positions On as a forward-thinking brand in tune with modern consumer values. Investment Outlook: Despite the steep valuation and potential cash flow challenges, On's growth trajectory remains impressive. Assuming a 40% revenue growth this year, followed by 30% and 20% in subsequent years, On could reach revenues of 11.5 billion by 2033. Applying a conservative 10% net margin and a 20x multiple, the company's estimated worth would be around 24 billion, offering an investment return of approximately 11.9% per year. Although this may not seem great long term, the short-term growth is too good to pass up. In conclusion, On Holdings presents a cautiously bullish investment opportunity, given its remarkable growth and market dynamics. However, it's essential to recognize the speculative nature of this assessment, and investors should conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions. As On continues to blend innovation, sustainability, and the Athlete Spirit, it stands poised to redefine the future of athletic footwear and potentially deliver compelling returns to investors.
NYSE:ONONLong
by Helios_Capital_Investment
1