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UPSTART HLDGS INCUPSTART HLDGS INCUPSTART HLDGS INC

UPSTART HLDGS INC

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$UPST Back On TrackThe AI lending giant Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is up more than 150% since last month due to a short squeeze after sharing positive Q1 earnings. Considering the improving macro environment, UPST stock can continue squeezing especially with the Fed potentially pausing rate hikes this year. With the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 13th and 14th, UPST stock could soar on a dovish pause. UPST Fundamentals Rate Hike Pause Since UPST is an AI fintech company, it is well-positioned to benefit from both the increasing interest the AI sector has been seeing recently and the expectations that the Fed will pause rate hikes in June as a hike pause can help UPST in more than one way. For starters, demand for UPST loans may increase as people and institutions become more willing to take loans as interest rates stabilize and the macroeconomic climate improves. Secondly, because the interest rate appears to be approaching its peak, financial institutions might be more willing to buy loans held by UPST. On that note, Castlelake has previously committed to purchasing up to $4 billion in consumer installment loans from Upstart, which indicates Castlelake’s confidence in UPST and its belief in the potential of the consumer credit and specialty finance sector. The loan purchase also addresses UPST’s concerns about keeping loans on its balance sheet and demonstrates that UPST can sell more loans in the future. Disturbing The Market Through AI UPST’s main selling point is its AI loan assessment tool, which the company claims is significantly more accurate than traditional lending models like Fair Isaac Corporation’s (NYSE: FICO). That may be true since UPST’s model outperformed FICO’s model in categorizing loans into different risk grades by a fair margin. Furthermore, 84% of UPST’s loans are automated with no human intervention whatsoever which is the highest in the industry. UPST is also retaining an outstanding 83 net promoter score (NPS) with brands like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) that are known for their loyal customers only standing between 61 and 68 between different products. If UPST can prove to the banking sector that its loan assessment model is better than other models like FICO’s that might see UPST’s current PPS as a bargain. Short Data While short interest has decreased for UPST stock by almost 10% since February 2022, UPST stock is still seeing a high short interest rate despite the positive Q1 earnings and selling $4 billion of its loans to Castlelake in May. UPST stock is highly shorted with a short interest of 35.4% and 35.6% of its float on loan. At the same time, utilization rate remains high at 100% which may see UPST continue soaring if the Fed pauses rate hikes in June since short sellers might be forced to cover their positions. UPST Financials In its Q1 2023 report, UPST’s assets decreased 5% QoQ from $1.9 billion to $1.8 billion, and its cash and cash equivalents decreased 8% QoQ from $422 million to $387 million. UPST’s total liabilities decreased by 5% QoQ from $1.26 billion to $1.19 billion. Revenue also decreased 60% YoY from $313 million to $117 million. Operating costs decreased almost 15% from $275 million to $234 million, which contributed to the operating loss increase of 485% YoY from $34 million in operating income to $131 million in operating loss. As a result, UPST reported a net loss of $129 million – a 500% increase YoY. Technical Analysis UPST stock’s trend is bullish with the stock trading in an upwards channel. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which are bullish indications. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 58 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover. As for the fundamentals, UPST stock could see a catalyst if the Fed decides to pause rate hikes at its June 14 meeting. In case of a pause, a short squeeze could occur to UPST stock due to the high short interest. UPST Forecast With the expectation that the Fed will pause rate hikes in June, UPST can expect to see higher demand for its loan assessment tool. UPST can also expect to see more financial institutions willing to buy loans held by it since the interest rate appears to be approaching its peak. If UPST can prove to the banking sector that its loan assessment model is better than other models like FICO’s, that could make UPST’s current PPS a bargain.
NASDAQ:UPST
by Penny_Stocks_Today
RSI DivergenceAn RSI Divergence occurs when price moves in the opposite direction of the RSI. The slope of the RSI does not match the slope of price. A Divergence can be bullish or bearish. Divergences always end up correcting it seems. This one is bearish. Some would use the peaks of RSI to spot a Bearish Divergence and the valleys to spot a Bullish Divergence. Possible W pattern that may have terminated at the 1.414 of the 1st leg up. This stock is not profitable as of yet, and I did not realize UPST had made such a run to the upside. Wacky market for sure. Short interest is over 30%. No recommendation. 52 Week Range 11.93 47.46 Day Range 28.75 32.50 EPS (FWD) -0.52 PE - Div Rate (TTM) - Yield (TTM) - Short Interest 34.99% Market Cap $2.57B Volume 8,877,624
NASDAQ:UPST
by lauralea
securing half my UPST for about 84% in gains 💙Like I mentioned in last post, this is one of the few positions I actually held long for a swing. We called the triple bottom bounce, trend breakout and even gave long trigger at 22 if you missed the dip entry 🔥 I will sell more of my shares either at 35 or if it goes to breakeven for some reason After 35 a rally to 50 is possible, but we need some very very good news for that to happen. boost and follow for more. thanks 💙
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Vibranium_Capital
3
UPST - will it succeed in breaking up?UPST formed a double bottom base over the last 6 months with a horizontal neckline at 26 The odds of a successful breakup has increased this time owing to the overall market strength. A daily CLOSE above could be significant as it has not been able to so for the past 6 months. Other factors increasing optimism (of a successful break in the near future) is some strong volume accumulation since it's earnings beat on 10th May, gapping up strongly and only partially filled before propelling higher. Most likely this is a breakaway gap - signifying trend reversal (ie, from down to up) that will not be filled anytime soon. Also, it's 200 day moving average has already flattened out and the stock is now trading well above it. Bear in mind that stocks priced below $50 could have a lot more volatility on it's daily movement (both ways) and trailing stops need to cater for that. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Juliac
Watchlist 2023-05-11 $SPY $MGNI $UPST $RIOT $TWLO AMEX:SPY Futures are seeing a slight uptick, bolstered by positive inflation data this morning. The QQQ index ended Wednesday at its highest level in over eight months, driven by large-cap tech stocks and falling Treasury yields. SPY is looking relatively flat, but is showing signs of rejecting the 413 level that we blasted to late is prior days session. For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for: USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000 USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3 USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900 NASDAQ:MGNI - Magnite Says Continue To Expect Adjusted EBITDA Margin Will Improve Meaningfully In Second Half Of 2023. RVOL is 1.2 atm but if it picks up there is plenty of room to run as it's breaking out of the multi month range from 9.50. Support 9.75 Resistance 11.50 Inflection 10.30 NASDAQ:UPST - soars 40% after upbeat earnings outlook PD. This has the highest short float in large cap stocks at 35%. This is finally a reason for shorts to get out of this positions. The longer is stays at these elevate levels the more shorts will panic into a squeeze. Day 2 continuation over the intraday resistance at 18.30. Support 18.50 Resistance 20.50 Inflection 19.50 NASDAQ:RIOT - Surpasses Q1 Earnings Estimates by 128% from a Quarterly loss to a profit of 0.04$ per share. I'd like some intraday levels to develop first as the isn't a clear BO level that isn't too close to PD high at 13.00. Let the levels for and hopefully buy a pullback after the opening range high is broken. NYSE:TWLO -keeping T on watch, could be a day 2 continuation to the upside as it couldn't get below the PM low yesterday. Let me know what you guys are looking at in the comments!
NASDAQ:UPST
by UnclePennybagss
$UPST Was Its Run An Overreaction?Most fintech companies have been suffering as of late due to the rise in interest rates over the last year, coupled with the failure of multiple banks during recent months. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is a fintech that recently unveiled its earnings report and rallied by as much as 40%. The rise in interest rates has affected fintech companies in different ways, but with a potential interest rate hike pause, the fintech space could have some breathing room moving forward. UPST Fundamentals After beating its Q1 2023 estimates, UPST stock price soared 40% pre-market. UPST reported $102.9 million in revenues beating its estimate of $99.7 million by 3.21% and an EPS of -0.47 beating its estimate of -0.82 by 43.11%. UPST has been affected by the looming recession in the US and the continuous rise in interest rates by the Fed throughout 2022, which has affected the number of people getting loans. As a result, UPST revenues declined from $310.1 million to $102.9 million due to the low demand for loans. However, the Fed might have hinted that it won’t raise interest rates any further, which indicates that the decline in UPST’s revenues could slow down moving forward, yet it still might not recover as the current interest rates are still high. Nevertheless, UPST could still face a near-term risk due to its dependency on Cross River Bank which recently entered a consent order with the FDIC to resolve charges that the bank engaged in unsafe practices related to its fair lending compliance. One of the main key provisions is that the bank is required to develop fair lending internal controls that must be reviewed periodically on a risk basis but not less than annually and adjusted appropriately. This consent order could be considered a warning to partners of Cross River Bank that might face scrutiny in the future. UPST could be a prime candidate for this, as Cross River Bank formed 51% of the loans processed through UPST’s platform while receiving fees from the bank that accounted for 45% of UPST’s total revenues in 2022. Furthermore, Cross River Bank is the biggest buyer of UPST’s loans and accounted for 17% of all loan funding in 2022 and 57% of all Upstart loans that are funded by banks and retained on its balance sheets. With this in mind, UPST stock could be at risk long term despite its recent rally. UPST Financials In its Q1 2023 report, UPST reported $1.8 billion in assets including $386.9 million in cash and $982.2 million in loans. UPST witnessed a decline in its assets from $1.9 billion including a decline in its cash from $422 million and a decline in its loans from $1 billion in Q4 2022. UPST’s liabilities shrank QoQ from $1.2 billion to $1.1 billion, however, its borrowings increased from $986.3 million to $1 billion. For the three months ended March 31, UPST’s revenues declined YoY from $102.9 million to $310 million and its operating income dropped from $34.8 million to a loss of $131.8 million. Finally, UPST’s net income also dropped from $32.6 million to a net loss of $129.2 million. Technical Analysis UPST stock trend was bearish as it was trading in a downward channel, however, it recently broke out of the channel forming a large gap. Looking at the indicators, UPST is currently trading above the 21 MA, 50 MA, and 200 MA which is a bullish sign. The RSI is overbought at 81 and the MACD is bullish but is curling bearishly. Fundamentally, UPST’s most recent catalyst was its Q1 earnings. UPST doesn’t have any upcoming catalyst, however, the Cross River Bank consent order might affect UPST in the future if Cross River Bank goes under. Additionally, The Feds possibly no longer increasing interest rates while potentially cutting them in the future could bode well for the company in the future. UPST stock price is expected to drop anticipating the RSI to cool down, while also filling the gap it recently formed. A possible entry point would be at the current price as the stock is trading near the $19.26 resistance taking profits along the way on testing the $17.64 support, the $15.68 support, and the $14.06 support. UPST Forecast Despite UPST’s stock soaring, the company may witness a near-term risk due to the consent order on Cross River Bank which is UPST’s biggest loan provider forming more than half the loans processed through the company’s platform. For this reason, UPST may crumble moving forward.
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by Penny_Stocks_Today
Upst We got a big pop I missed the entry when. Wanted it the other day. Now I’m averged in at 18.32. I do however like this 18.15 level the reason for me is last 2 times we failed to hold 18.15 as support and dropped to 17.80s. This time we are attempting to hold it as support. This is my idea. I wil place bids for a longer swing at the lows but I won’t sit and wait for it. I personally think the next rip to 20.25 we should breakout just need to give the market a bit more time to decide which way we want o break. Stoploss for me is 17.30 I would take some off the table at 20$ and 21.50. Overall target is 25$
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Erictaylor
1