Barrick Gold $GOLD | On The RadarToday on the radar, Barrick Gold
Barrick Gold has attracted some attention as major investors, including recently the notable Stanley Druckenmiller, have taken significant positions. With these influential players entering the fray, while the gold market experiencing remarkable momentum, the question emerges: Is this the right moment to buy? Well, let's dive on it and look at some fundemantals, some metrics and some technicals.
The fundemantals
Gold has exhibited remarkable resilience, maintaining stability despite the backdrop of high interest rates. It has remained relatively stable around the $2000 level for some time now and recently experienced a notable surge in momentum. Meanwhile, the mining sector has faced challenges and has been trading at discounted levels. This disparity may suggest a lag in market perception, particularly regarding the potential for a flight to safety and subsequently, a shift towards safety asset producers.
The world economy is hitting a rough patch, with recessions popping up globally. While the U.S. is trying for a soft landing and celebrating record-high stock markets, there are some conflicting signs from key economic indicators. This divergence might resolve soon, depending on how things pan out in the real economy, possibly prompting a move towards safer assets. Add the fact that central banks globally are bullish on gold, and the BRICS nations are also showing a keen interest, aligning with the broader trend of moving away from the dollar.
So, with gold demand on the upswing, and considering the mining sector's relative underperformance compared to the gold price, there seems to be a noteworthy opportunity for those looking to go long on both gold and the mining industry.
The metrics
Now, let's explore some metrics to determine if this company is fairly valued, discounted, or possibly overpriced. Right from the start, Barrick Gold stands out among mining companies for its exceptionally clean balance sheet. They have great cashflow, manage their debt and liabilities quite well, which could be one of the reasons drawing significant interest from big and famous investors. Notably, the company consistently beats expectations.
Price/Earnings Ratios:
Trailing P/E: 22.04
Forward P/E: 18.05
The forward P/E is lower than the trailing P/E, indicating that the market expects future earnings growth. The P/E ratios suggest a moderate valuation compared to the company's earnings.
Price/Sales and Price/Book Ratios:
Price/Sales: 2.44
Price/Book: 1.19
Both ratios suggest relatively low valuation compared to sales and book value. However, the interpretation should consider industry benchmarks and historical values.
Profitability Margins:
Profit Margin: 11.16%
Operating Margin: 13.08%
The company has healthy profit margins, indicating efficient operations.
Liquidity and Solvency:
Current Ratio: 3.16
Total Debt/Equity: 16.32%
The company has a strong current ratio, suggesting good short-term liquidity. The debt/equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced capital structure.
Growth and Financial Performance:
Revenue Growth (yoy): 10.30%
Quarterly Earnings Growth: Not available
Positive revenue growth is a good sign, but it's important to consider the earnings growth trend.
Cash Flow:
Operating Cash Flow: $3.73 billion
Levered Free Cash Flow: $675.75 million
The company generates healthy operating and free cash flows.
In summary, the stock seems to have reasonable valuation metrics, strong profitability margins, positive revenue growth, and healthy liquidity. Compared to some peers, Barrick Gold appears to trade at a slight discount.
Over the past year, there have been noteworthy insider transactions involving both selling and buying activities. However, it is particularly noteworthy that the board of directors has recently engaged in a substantial buying spree. This prompts the question: What insights are they uncovering?
The Technicals
Now, let's delve into some technical analysis—the very reason we're all here and appreciate TradingView. Firstly, we're entering a week filled with significant economic data releases. Additionally, the gold market has experienced a prolonged uptrend. This is certainly a factor to keep in mind in the upcoming days/week, as increased volatility and potential corrections may manifest. Bearing this in consideration, let's explore how we can reflect these dynamics on the chart.
Examining the daily chart over the past 1.5 years and scrutinizing the price structure, a distinct pattern emerges. Following a decline from $25, the price has exhibited a wide-ranging behavior. Notably, it consistently rebounds from the $14 range, suggesting a possible floor or bottom. Taking a more extensive view, this aligns with a monthly/yearly support level. The overarching support, coupled with daily resistance, hints at a potential continuation of ranging price action, possibly leading to a convergence or apex point. In such a scenario, there could be multiple buying opportunities in the coming months, facilitating the accumulation of a robust long position—unless a market shift and strong momentum occur.
Examining the daily chart closely reveals a well-defined descending channel without a distinct apex for reference. Despite the recent breach of prior lows, it's crucial to interpret this cautiously, as breaking one low doesn't automatically signal immediate concerns, especially when the price remains above the monthly low. It could be indicative of a failed breakout. In the event of a market correction this week, these price levels might actually serve as a reliable range for initiating long positions, with a carefully placed tight stop around the $13 range.
A tool I find particularly useful is the fixed volume profile, which proves valuable in identifying specific price ranges characterized by high volume. This method unveils potential breakout zones, support and resistance levels, and even target zones. I typically overlay these profiles onto specific structures, such as from top to top or bottom to top, to gain a more insightful perspective on volume distribution within the structure. A noteworthy observation is the concentration of the highest volume around the $16.50 range. In my approach, a breach of this level, followed by a potential bounce and continuation, could provide valuable insights into the prevailing momentum.
A correlation exists with the recent Point of Control (POC) and some previous lows in this range, making it a potential local bounce zone worth monitoring. Beyond this point, significant price zones to consider include the $17.50 range and the $19 range. The latter could serve as a conservative initial target, and subsequent analysis of the broader circumstances will help determine if the price can break away, potentially sparking a major rally. If we manage to capitalize on a correction and enter at a lower current price, achieving a buy-in below the $15 range, could yield a 25% return on investment (ROI) or potentially even more, depending on market conditions.
Observing the regular volume, there's a noticeable dip that occurred last year, particularly during the summertime. While this dip isn't particularly surprising or highly meaningful, what stands out is the consistent increase in the daily average volume.
Another indicator I find valuable is the Hull, essentially an alternative moving average. It's currently on the verge of crossing and transitioning to green on the daily chart. While this doesn't carry significant weight on its own, it can certainly contribute to the decision-making process. Even if the crossing occurs and the indicator turns green, the price may still experience a pullback. The intriguing aspect will be observing the depth of the correction and whether the price manages to sustain the indicators in the green zone. Ideally, a bounce on the indicator could signal a retention of upside momentum.
It's crucial to note that technical analysis involves a significant degree of subjectivity. The paths indicated on the chart with the blue dotted lines are not predictions; instead, they represent favorable scenarios to monitor. The outcome will hinge on various scenarios and how they unfold. Despite the inherent subjectivity, the fundamentals are sound, the metrics and ratios look promising and momentum seems to be evolving.
And as always, please remember that this analysis is for informational and recreational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Draw your own conclusions based on your assessment.
