ADBE 📉 ADBE – Tactical CALL + Strategic PUT Setup (Pre/Post Earnings Play)I'm currently watching Adobe (ADBE) closely ahead of its earnings report scheduled for June 13th. The setup presents a compelling two-phase strategy that aligns with both technical signals and the macro narrative surrounding tech stocks and overinflated expectations around AI.
🔵 Phase 1: Tactical CALL – Pre-Earnings Momentum
We're seeing a familiar pattern emerge — just like NVDA and AVGO, ADBE is being driven upward by heavy AI hype and anticipation. With strong bullish sentiment in social media, institutional interest still present, and a historically reliable "pre-earnings run-up", a short-term CALL trade seems favorable.
CALL Entry: 2–3 days before earnings
Expiration: June 13
Exit: Before earnings release
Target: +20% to +40% gain from bullish anticipation
Risk: Limited due to short duration; no hold through event
🔴 Phase 2: Strategic PUT – Post-Earnings Reversal
Once earnings hit, I expect a sharp reversal, even if the numbers are decent. Here's why:
RSI on daily and 3D charts is near historical extremes
Technical exhaustion signals: divergence, volume fade, upper Bollinger touches
Institutional distribution signs present
The market has priced in perfection – guidance slip or any miss = correction
Macro: high rates, cautious corporate spending, sticky inflation = risk-off sentiment
📊 PUT Setup:
Entry: After earnings release
Strike: Based on $480 breakdown confirmation
Expiration: June 20–28
Target zone: $445–$460
Stop: Above $515 breakout level
🧠 Final Thoughts
This is not just about earnings numbers — it's about unsustainable expectations and institutions likely rotating out after the run. ADBE has rallied on speculation, not fundamentals. My system detects 23 out of 26 bearish criteria being met. If the market reacts negatively, this could be a high-conviction short-term swing opportunity.
📌 Following the script:
✅ CALL before earnings (close before event)
✅ PUT after earnings if confirmation of breakdown
Let’s see how this plays out. Thoughts?
